datscilly

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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33		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
149.542	85.0%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
116.394	83.4%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
88.065	77.1%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
87.709	86.3%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
83.003	75.8%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
82.324	95.5%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
82.040	94.5%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
81.615	92.3%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
80.442	50.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
80.094	86.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
77.832	84.3%	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
76.017	61.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
73.602	92.7%	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
73.319	97.4%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (March 29, 2025)	Continuous
73.245	80.6%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
70.187	83.3%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
69.976	85.1%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
69.392	90.5%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
68.379	73.1%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.968	78.3%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
65.812	97.7%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.137	54.8%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
65.081	75.9%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
63.354	49.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
61.859	98.3%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
61.105	42.0%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
60.431	95.7%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
58.095	73.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
57.366	90.7%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.865	66.6%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
55.078	79.2%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
55.026	97.7%	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (February 15, 2025)	Continuous
54.269	61.5%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
53.666	55.9%	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
52.605	60.6%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
52.294	74.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
51.791	84.3%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
49.182	89.6%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
48.701	88.5%	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
47.489	93.9%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
45.106	67.6%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
44.879	93.1%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
44.322	65.8%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
43.400	91.5%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
43.350	80.0%	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
41.380	87.5%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
38.658	75.9%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
38.625	77.1%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
38.091	74.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
37.854	54.9%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
36.773	43.0%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
36.181	75.9%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
35.558	97.4%	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 29, 2025)	Continuous
34.431	88.6%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
33.838	42.1%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
33.394	92.2%	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
33.362	56.3%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
33.002	73.9%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
32.394	91.8%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
31.784	86.2%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
31.778	91.5%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
31.535	88.8%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
30.953	95.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 1, 2025)	Continuous
29.748	80.5%	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 15, 2025)	Continuous
29.714	25.2%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
28.103	54.2%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
27.996	41.3%	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
27.704	66.2%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
26.877	74.1%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
26.663	76.4%	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
25.715	75.9%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
25.620	43.0%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
24.696	74.1%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
24.683	69.6%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
24.570	74.6%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
24.284	80.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 15, 2025)	Continuous
23.802	80.5%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (March 15, 2025)	Continuous
23.560	93.5%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
23.317	75.0%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
22.653	82.2%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
22.598	54.1%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
22.422	66.9%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
22.133	78.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
21.263	69.3%	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
21.157	90.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
20.847	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 1, 2025)	Continuous
20.680	75.9%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
20.552	81.1%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
20.516	94.5%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
20.368	74.5%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
19.769	79.3%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
19.552	64.1%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
19.548	88.5%	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
19.479	97.0%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
19.240	56.2%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
18.562	75.9%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
18.419	85.9%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
18.344	82.7%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
18.252	98.2%	Where will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be on October 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.874	39.9%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
16.689	55.0%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
16.210	62.6%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
15.900	82.5%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
13.909	61.7%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
13.704	93.9%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
13.355	88.3%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
12.891	92.5%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
12.686	92.4%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
12.495	80.3%	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
12.118	71.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
11.595	81.5%	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
11.138	82.7%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
11.035	86.7%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
10.916	75.3%	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
10.633	47.4%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
10.626	60.8%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
10.132	28.9%	When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Winners announced!)	Continuous
10.030	97.0%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
9.803	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (March 1, 2025)	Continuous
9.722	94.3%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
9.571	79.9%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
9.398	57.9%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
9.328	67.0%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
8.163	76.6%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
7.531	99.7%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
7.280	77.1%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
7.063	96.0%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
7.033	98.6%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
6.726	70.4%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
6.663	89.3%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
6.287	90.9%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
6.078	90.9%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
5.991	90.9%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
5.323	76.9%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
5.118	10.8%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
2.897	77.4%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.770	54.1%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.679	8.1%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
2.579	58.8%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
2.191	71.4%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
2.057	73.8%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
1.540	83.9%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.850	9.4%	Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.647	69.3%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
0.453	68.3%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.395	5.3%	Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?	Binary
0.226	54.0%	Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?	Binary
0.160	97.6%	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-0.029	2.1%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
-0.156	29.0%	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-0.408	4.2%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
-0.434	83.3%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-0.514	18.6%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-1.093	45.0%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (DeepSeek)	Binary
-1.116	97.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (March 29, 2025)	Continuous
-2.036	87.6%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-2.554	70.8%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
-2.600	30.7%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
-2.640	27.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-2.789	53.1%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-2.941	48.8%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
-7.267	78.6%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
-7.324	65.6%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
-9.485	16.8%	Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?	Binary
-10.055	63.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-10.358	97.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (February 15, 2025)	Continuous
-10.754	97.5%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
-10.787	80.7%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
-10.930	23.8%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-14.254	77.3%	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
-16.318	86.6%	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-21.174	97.7%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (February 15, 2025)	Continuous
-21.934	40.1%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-24.713	88.9%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
-26.707	99.7%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-35.331	99.5%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-38.709	92.2%	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-66.583	83.9%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-91.622	97.8%	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
-123.012	68.6%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary