jack

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.13	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.404	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
87.913	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
73.868	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
72.214	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
66.783	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
63.165	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
53.830	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
51.408	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
39.957	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
39.435	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
37.321	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
36.953	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
36.816	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
36.598	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
32.434	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
28.796	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
24.804	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
24.162	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
21.976	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
20.291	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
18.406	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
18.239	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
18.097	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
18.002	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
17.939	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
17.660	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
15.619	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
15.220	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
14.543	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
14.150	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
14.002	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
12.340	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
11.932	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
11.836	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
11.402	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
10.504	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
10.218	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
9.605	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
9.605	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
9.380	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
9.229	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
8.973	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
8.908	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
8.812	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
7.840	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
7.675	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
7.542	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
7.485	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
7.448	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
7.444	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
6.700	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
6.587	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
6.337	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
6.198	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
5.933	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
5.923	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
5.838	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
5.734	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.297	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
5.238	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
4.887	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
4.832	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
4.790	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
4.736	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.688	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
4.618	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
4.574	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
4.516	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
4.186	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
4.164	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
4.054	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
3.951	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
3.916	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
3.814	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
3.476	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
3.351	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
3.094	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
2.661	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
2.622	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
2.369	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
2.286	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
2.137	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
1.947	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
1.930	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
1.876	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
1.837	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
1.707	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
1.608	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
1.585	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
1.544	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
1.431	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
1.262	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
1.137	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
1.086	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.995	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
0.934	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
0.659	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
0.629	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.570	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
0.553	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.535	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
0.529	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
0.470	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
0.436	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
0.400	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.387	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.347	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
0.327	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
0.308	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
0.283	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
0.228	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
0.224	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.189	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
0.121	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.097	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
0.093	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.077	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
0.065	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
0.029	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
0.017	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
0.005	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
0.000	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-0.006	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
-0.037	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
-0.053	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-0.109	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
-0.125	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-0.284	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-0.304	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-0.332	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
-0.422	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
-0.437	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
-0.604	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-0.870	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
-1.035	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.968	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-2.226	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-2.994	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
-3.165	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-3.862	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
-4.014	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-4.268	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-6.157	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-6.812	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
-6.823	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-9.492	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-9.607	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
-10.785	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-11.368	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-12.507	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
-17.010	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-18.674	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-31.111	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-44.271	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-49.095	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-102.090	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous