galen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

10.39		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
31.691	99.9%	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
28.786	99.3%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
27.021	45.0%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
25.413	34.3%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
24.215	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
22.239	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
21.443	43.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
21.001	48.0%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
20.113	99.9%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
20.111	99.9%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
19.870	90.5%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
18.105	99.9%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
18.049	41.5%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
16.546	20.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
15.283	36.6%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
15.208	99.1%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
14.372	26.8%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
14.262	13.5%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
13.883	44.4%	Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31)	Binary
13.527	47.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
12.741	30.0%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
12.250	35.4%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
11.673	98.4%	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
11.670	38.9%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
11.392	51.8%	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
11.034	49.2%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
10.861	35.4%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
10.723	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
9.501	52.8%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
9.444	99.9%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
9.150	39.4%	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
8.698	99.9%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.034	99.8%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
7.902	17.1%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
7.755	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
7.713	43.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
7.674	52.5%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
7.641	43.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
7.359	40.3%	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
7.217	34.3%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
6.804	31.4%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
6.781	34.3%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
6.775	99.8%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
6.769	52.3%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
6.692	47.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
6.667	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
6.577	51.6%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
6.478	50.7%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
6.458	99.8%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
6.277	38.0%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
5.808	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
5.633	45.1%	Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?	Binary
5.620	44.4%	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
5.503	48.2%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
5.489	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
5.390	99.8%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
5.313	27.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
5.286	43.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
5.159	34.3%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
5.077	40.9%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
4.968	45.6%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
4.936	16.6%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
4.931	33.4%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
4.733	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
4.287	38.8%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
3.971	34.6%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
3.876	30.4%	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
3.834	26.7%	Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?	Binary
3.787	47.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
3.686	34.4%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
3.630	33.4%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
3.529	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
3.459	50.2%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
3.367	7.1%	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
3.340	32.7%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
3.331	34.3%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
3.298	39.4%	Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?	Binary
3.267	96.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
3.256	99.9%	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
3.208	33.4%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
3.197	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
3.177	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
3.176	37.1%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
3.136	32.7%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
3.113	33.3%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
3.101	5.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
3.099	33.4%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
3.088	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
3.029	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
2.862	21.5%	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
2.854	33.4%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
2.801	29.0%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
2.750	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
2.733	38.9%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
2.697	32.6%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
2.538	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
2.427	39.7%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.419	38.1%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
2.382	52.3%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
2.367	42.6%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
2.320	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.300	47.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
2.267	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
2.212	45.8%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
2.111	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
2.083	33.0%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
2.066	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
1.994	52.3%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
1.966	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
1.929	3.0%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
1.905	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
1.900	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
1.893	31.9%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
1.862	9.2%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
1.801	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
1.801	32.4%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
1.778	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
1.718	5.1%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
1.712	47.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
1.709	5.2%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.612	5.1%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.593	52.3%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
1.577	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
1.574	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
1.552	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
1.489	5.1%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.481	12.1%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
1.436	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
1.427	29.0%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
1.404	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
1.398	7.1%	Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?	Binary
1.379	32.1%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics)	Binary
1.353	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.331	21.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
1.327	5.2%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
1.302	28.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.283	52.4%	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
1.248	46.4%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
1.154	36.1%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
1.131	39.1%	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
1.121	29.0%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
1.107	32.7%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
1.096	21.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.095	2.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
1.058	33.4%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
1.054	33.4%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
1.036	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.032	8.8%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
0.974	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
0.956	99.4%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
0.951	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.922	5.1%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
0.914	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.824	21.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
0.806	5.2%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
0.772	10.8%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.730	9.2%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
0.710	38.4%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
0.700	17.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
0.692	5.1%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
0.649	6.7%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
0.644	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
0.636	32.7%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.626	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
0.602	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
0.601	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
0.585	45.3%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
0.571	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.570	7.1%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
0.557	30.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
0.554	47.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
0.542	6.7%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
0.532	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.526	32.1%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks)	Binary
0.526	5.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
0.524	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.518	52.3%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
0.504	18.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.466	5.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
0.440	29.0%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
0.437	1.0%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
0.436	25.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.420	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.407	13.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.387	30.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
0.367	32.7%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
0.367	50.5%	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before)	Binary
0.354	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
0.349	43.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.342	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
0.338	32.1%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings)	Binary
0.315	22.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.312	32.1%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky)	Binary
0.290	29.7%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
0.285	5.2%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
0.277	97.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.273	1.5%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
0.264	33.2%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever)	Binary
0.256	30.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.256	38.4%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
0.253	18.7%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
0.253	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.219	30.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.213	2.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
0.207	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.190	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.184	6.7%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
0.184	21.9%	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
0.177	30.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.159	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
0.153	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.152	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.149	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.144	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.134	5.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
0.119	38.9%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
0.117	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.113	6.7%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
0.112	6.7%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
0.082	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.075	6.7%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
0.060	6.7%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
0.055	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.055	32.9%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream)	Binary
0.039	17.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.030	6.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.007	8.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.006	6.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.000	6.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
-0.001	7.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
-0.002	6.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
-0.002	8.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
-0.015	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-0.022	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
-0.028	49.9%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
-0.048	33.2%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury)	Binary
-0.081	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
-0.163	38.9%	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
-0.164	33.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
-0.184	32.9%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm)	Binary
-0.247	26.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
-0.321	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
-0.375	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
-0.447	32.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
-0.614	37.3%	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun)	Binary
-1.023	44.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-1.220	27.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-1.359	35.6%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
-1.712	52.3%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
-2.745	99.3%	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
-3.711	99.9%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary