Vang

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.512		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
107.538	99.8%	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous
99.688	98.1%	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
89.657	84.9%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
80.486	69.0%	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
74.998	99.4%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
68.389	68.0%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
62.297	92.6%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
57.747	86.5%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
56.586	99.9%	What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025?	Continuous
54.682	98.8%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
52.586	97.5%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
52.234	99.9%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
50.600	99.8%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
47.496	99.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
46.423	98.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
44.572	90.0%	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
44.344	73.2%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
42.963	73.4%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
41.382	91.2%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
39.834	86.4%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
39.536	99.3%	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2023)	Continuous
38.124	97.1%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
36.908	99.7%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
34.357	85.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
33.908	99.7%	How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025?	Continuous
33.727	99.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
30.959	94.2%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
30.817	92.2%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
30.533	99.7%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
30.487	85.2%	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
30.336	97.5%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
29.630	91.0%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
29.139	93.2%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
29.106	99.8%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
28.984	85.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
28.960	99.0%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
28.884	90.0%	What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2025)	Continuous
28.853	91.2%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
28.834	97.1%	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
28.452	72.8%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
28.410	99.9%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
28.000	82.3%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
27.971	99.7%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
27.703	98.3%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
27.379	95.1%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
26.903	97.4%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
26.618	95.2%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
26.197	90.3%	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
26.155	26.7%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
26.129	97.5%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
25.589	98.5%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
24.995	99.3%	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
24.864	69.2%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
24.283	86.2%	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
24.042	94.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
23.806	79.5%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
23.289	99.8%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
22.043	88.8%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
21.052	98.8%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
21.046	87.4%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
20.698	84.2%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
19.946	95.9%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
19.320	96.3%	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
19.296	58.9%	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
18.984	99.4%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
18.922	97.5%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
18.753	72.3%	What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?	Continuous
18.736	97.4%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
18.549	99.5%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
18.254	70.1%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
18.199	99.9%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
18.122	99.8%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
17.910	99.7%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
17.786	50.3%	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
17.707	100.0%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
17.706	99.7%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
17.431	99.7%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
17.171	94.6%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
16.274	97.9%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
16.100	80.0%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
15.624	84.1%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
15.569	97.8%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
15.269	85.7%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
15.203	90.0%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
15.081	92.6%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
14.947	99.7%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
14.802	34.1%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
14.789	49.9%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.700	97.9%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
14.511	85.2%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
14.375	99.8%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
14.048	86.8%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
13.933	90.2%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
13.913	47.0%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
13.624	86.9%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
13.591	99.5%	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
13.559	99.8%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
13.559	66.6%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
13.465	27.3%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
13.311	40.4%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
13.149	97.5%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
13.127	90.9%	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
13.090	62.9%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
13.014	90.8%	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	Continuous
12.999	85.7%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
12.977	84.1%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
12.460	99.9%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
12.414	97.5%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
12.163	99.9%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
12.037	97.5%	What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025?	Continuous
12.004	67.2%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
11.936	95.6%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
11.841	99.8%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
11.781	84.6%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
11.621	97.5%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
11.564	91.7%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
11.538	74.1%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
11.400	92.9%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
11.381	89.1%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
11.165	54.7%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
11.114	74.5%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
10.894	92.6%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
10.832	99.9%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.474	90.6%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
10.342	88.5%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
10.269	49.1%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
10.196	99.8%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
10.186	93.8%	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
10.152	84.2%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
10.002	95.9%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
9.994	91.7%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
9.968	76.1%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
9.943	99.8%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
9.879	85.7%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
9.825	92.4%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
9.731	96.6%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
9.623	71.1%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
9.620	85.7%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
9.537	99.9%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
9.525	99.9%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
9.506	98.8%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
9.387	84.9%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
9.160	99.9%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
9.121	99.5%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.989	93.9%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
8.825	99.8%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
8.667	99.7%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
8.624	23.5%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
8.508	72.7%	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
8.414	73.3%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
8.407	99.8%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
8.336	99.2%	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
8.333	89.5%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
8.119	99.1%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
8.090	58.1%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
8.063	99.8%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
8.061	97.5%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
8.053	84.9%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.967	91.2%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
7.899	74.1%	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
7.758	82.3%	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
7.757	62.5%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
7.729	66.0%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
7.719	95.5%	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
7.712	84.9%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
7.648	90.6%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
7.453	96.8%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
7.312	98.3%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
7.274	97.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.267	80.1%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
7.165	100.0%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
7.121	91.2%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
6.992	84.2%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
6.972	72.7%	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
6.960	99.4%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
6.920	69.8%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.909	98.5%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
6.892	92.3%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
6.876	100.0%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
6.856	99.9%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
6.688	92.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
6.450	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
6.396	55.3%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.381	24.3%	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
6.379	91.3%	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
6.365	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
6.256	88.3%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
6.168	99.8%	How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?	Continuous
6.163	89.6%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
6.111	91.9%	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
6.110	92.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.061	99.9%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
5.945	99.8%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
5.910	97.1%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
5.893	80.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
5.824	52.8%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
5.741	97.7%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
5.599	89.6%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
5.593	92.6%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
5.498	99.6%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.481	99.9%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
5.473	16.2%	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
5.383	97.4%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
5.380	92.6%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
5.312	98.8%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
5.219	96.1%	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
5.121	85.2%	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
5.025	88.3%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
5.014	92.6%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
4.879	92.6%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
4.868	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
4.862	97.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.821	93.1%	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
4.805	85.0%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
4.794	75.5%	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
4.779	98.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
4.724	14.5%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
4.664	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
4.503	97.1%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
4.478	67.7%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
4.365	99.2%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
4.347	99.8%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
4.283	94.3%	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
4.186	99.9%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
4.114	99.9%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
4.021	93.5%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
3.880	99.5%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
3.757	58.5%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
3.733	98.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
3.687	99.8%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
3.630	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.622	90.7%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
3.613	99.3%	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
3.567	97.7%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
3.530	99.5%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
3.484	99.9%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
3.437	82.3%	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
3.402	80.6%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
3.393	96.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
3.382	97.7%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.235	98.8%	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
3.155	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
3.106	97.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.086	91.7%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
3.058	91.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
3.009	72.7%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
2.998	80.8%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
2.932	80.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
2.913	85.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
2.912	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
2.827	99.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
2.683	99.8%	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
2.677	99.6%	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2024)	Continuous
2.567	97.4%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
2.541	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.524	58.5%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
2.475	60.9%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
2.466	85.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
2.380	94.8%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
2.334	90.5%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
2.237	30.6%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
2.217	84.8%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.188	96.4%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
2.056	89.6%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
2.052	5.2%	Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?	Binary
1.974	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.917	97.4%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.848	100.0%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.789	97.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.759	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.757	10.9%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
1.648	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.635	90.7%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.629	7.6%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
1.499	97.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.484	20.2%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
1.481	34.1%	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
1.466	96.0%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
1.451	92.7%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
1.421	66.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.407	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
1.403	92.7%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
1.399	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
1.383	61.9%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
1.357	97.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.327	66.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
1.302	85.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.228	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
1.222	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
1.200	86.3%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
1.116	8.8%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
1.099	85.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
1.016	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
0.995	25.8%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
0.992	98.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.933	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.932	99.9%	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
0.847	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.817	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.792	99.6%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
0.714	97.4%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.685	66.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.627	80.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
0.626	34.1%	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.600	92.6%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
0.568	66.7%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
0.543	99.7%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
0.422	84.4%	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
0.419	99.6%	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
0.406	96.3%	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
0.360	49.7%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
0.336	99.0%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
0.336	90.7%	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
0.313	2.6%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.271	90.6%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.212	35.9%	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
0.099	5.9%	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
0.085	2.6%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.069	98.0%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
0.053	80.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
0.032	29.8%	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
0.014	0.5%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.156	11.1%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-0.205	43.4%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
-0.210	90.0%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-0.304	1.2%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted)	Continuous
-0.352	32.3%	What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022?	Continuous
-0.353	98.7%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
-0.409	90.9%	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
-0.430	0.4%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (1: Candidacy recommended)	Continuous
-0.454	99.7%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
-1.087	72.4%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
-1.134	99.9%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
-1.520	66.7%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
-1.538	71.1%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-1.788	17.6%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-2.222	81.1%	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-2.531	93.8%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
-2.722	98.8%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
-2.850	92.8%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
-2.895	97.5%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-3.186	74.1%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
-3.334	98.7%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
-3.489	99.3%	What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
-3.638	96.8%	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
-3.970	93.1%	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
-4.081	97.1%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-4.476	92.5%	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
-4.681	74.1%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
-4.944	99.9%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
-5.214	95.3%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
-5.431	99.9%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
-5.840	91.7%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
-6.007	66.9%	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-6.010	99.8%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-6.137	26.6%	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
-6.474	99.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
-6.620	29.0%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-7.080	77.9%	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
-7.159	60.7%	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
-7.533	99.9%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-7.625	93.9%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
-7.740	74.1%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
-7.833	99.9%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
-7.836	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
-8.246	80.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
-8.413	74.1%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
-8.432	74.1%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
-8.641	88.9%	What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-9.090	98.5%	What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-9.129	92.9%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
-9.544	94.4%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-10.531	94.9%	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024)	Continuous
-10.706	81.6%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
-11.126	85.1%	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-11.403	94.9%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
-11.513	93.5%	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024)	Continuous
-12.090	80.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
-12.769	93.6%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
-13.066	99.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
-13.099	99.8%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
-13.232	99.8%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
-13.561	99.9%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
-13.893	90.7%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-14.154	93.6%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
-15.098	88.9%	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-15.728	85.0%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
-16.402	99.9%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
-17.135	97.2%	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
-18.068	99.0%	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2025)	Continuous
-19.434	91.1%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-19.445	98.6%	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2024)	Continuous
-19.551	92.4%	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-22.007	90.0%	Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026)	Binary
-22.533	90.2%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
-22.776	97.9%	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
-24.454	99.0%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-27.032	82.5%	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
-27.047	97.5%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-33.669	89.9%	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-36.657	90.0%	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
-38.016	76.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-40.136	76.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-47.936	90.0%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025)	Continuous
-50.178	77.7%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-51.312	90.0%	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
-61.524	99.3%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-67.000	99.8%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-83.186	91.5%	If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025?	Continuous
-90.820	94.0%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-134.410	76.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-174.592	99.7%	When will Moscow (stock) Exchange reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners?	Continuous