aristophanes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.26	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
33.553	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.510	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
26.066	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
24.597	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
23.506	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.834	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
21.418	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
21.064	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
20.065	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
18.657	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
17.748	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
16.500	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
16.462	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
15.691	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
15.552	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
14.983	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
14.639	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
14.184	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
13.896	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
13.059	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
13.052	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
12.334	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
11.999	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
11.461	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
11.318	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
11.054	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
10.889	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
10.780	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
10.541	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
10.538	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
9.725	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
9.723	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
9.614	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
9.575	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
9.050	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.378	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
8.366	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
8.279	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
8.045	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
7.953	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.876	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
7.815	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
7.607	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
7.536	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.307	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
7.304	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.984	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.624	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
6.531	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
6.515	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.504	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
6.457	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.235	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
6.026	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
6.023	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
6.003	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
5.974	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.407	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.309	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.308	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
5.250	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
5.223	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
5.100	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
5.004	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
4.981	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
4.926	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
4.916	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
4.889	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.861	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
4.846	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.423	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
4.134	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
4.080	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
4.045	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
3.961	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.891	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.809	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.657	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
3.647	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
3.454	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
3.394	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
3.380	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
3.352	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
3.331	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.243	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
3.194	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
3.163	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
3.125	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
3.069	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
2.967	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
2.920	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
2.877	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
2.711	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
2.576	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
2.515	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
2.086	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
1.896	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
1.819	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
1.674	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
1.536	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.527	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
1.504	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
1.498	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
1.421	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
1.366	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
1.266	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
1.227	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
1.122	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
1.094	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
0.750	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
0.726	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.656	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
0.655	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
0.566	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
0.548	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.535	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.534	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
0.534	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
0.421	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.353	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.352	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.213	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.185	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
0.179	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.142	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
0.060	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.014	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
0.010	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-0.012	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
-0.040	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
-0.077	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
-0.092	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
-0.100	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
-0.101	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
-0.102	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
-0.106	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
-0.107	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
-0.116	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
-0.120	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
-0.124	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
-0.126	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
-0.133	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.137	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
-0.283	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
-0.364	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
-0.369	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-0.607	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
-1.026	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
-1.981	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.210	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-2.212	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.359	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
-3.184	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.352	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
-3.817	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
-4.741	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-5.071	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
-5.106	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-5.571	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-6.076	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
-6.574	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
-10.510	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
-11.910	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
-13.868	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-15.923	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.124	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
-23.139	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
-27.633	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary