isaacdunn

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.893	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.910	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
81.116	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
59.763	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
57.439	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
57.203	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
56.258	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
44.026	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
35.544	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
32.519	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
21.691	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
21.122	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
19.698	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
18.507	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
18.005	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
17.261	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
16.906	How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 2021–03-07?	Continuous
16.589	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
16.185	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
14.984	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
14.775	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
14.654	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
12.972	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
12.345	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
11.796	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
11.605	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
11.073	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
10.731	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
10.614	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
10.022	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
9.782	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
9.117	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
8.982	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
8.180	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
8.138	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
7.917	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.859	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
7.055	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
6.822	Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?	Binary
6.632	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
6.260	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
5.720	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
5.601	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
4.823	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
4.666	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
3.731	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
3.060	What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?	Continuous
3.002	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
2.959	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
2.893	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
2.813	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
2.609	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
2.266	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
2.242	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
2.038	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.680	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
1.469	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
1.331	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
1.194	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
1.142	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
0.954	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.359	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
0.309	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.244	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.075	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
0.071	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.025	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
-0.006	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.416	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-0.649	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
-0.775	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
-0.975	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-1.336	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-1.379	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
-1.478	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
-1.484	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-1.602	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-1.646	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.963	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-2.555	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
-2.982	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
-3.093	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
-3.432	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-4.092	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-6.064	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-6.528	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-7.721	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
-10.066	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
-11.095	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
-11.098	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-11.859	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
-16.873	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
-35.998	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary