Sergio

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.19		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
117.803	99.6%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
77.481	99.5%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
76.470	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
72.409	99.6%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
55.295	99.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
45.693	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
45.255	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
43.174	92.2%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
41.208	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
41.149	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
40.497	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
39.896	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
38.670	60.6%	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024))	Continuous
38.595	99.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
37.505	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
37.484	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington)	Continuous
36.889	35.9%	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024))	Continuous
34.854	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
34.170	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
34.061	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
33.840	100.0%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
33.606	99.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
32.895	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
32.049	98.0%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
31.832	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
31.195	97.4%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
30.911	99.8%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
29.536	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
29.339	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
27.143	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
26.029	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
25.654	100.0%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
25.483	96.7%	Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined)	Continuous
25.389	99.9%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
25.383	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
25.024	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
25.009	71.5%	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024))	Continuous
24.543	58.1%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
22.891	100.0%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
22.559	99.7%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
21.954	99.1%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
20.827	99.9%	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
20.539	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
19.735	90.5%	What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2023)	Continuous
19.538	64.6%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
19.130	99.5%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
18.668	100.0%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
17.717	100.0%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
17.185	65.0%	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
16.823	97.9%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
16.307	97.3%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
15.433	99.4%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
15.174	99.9%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
14.810	68.0%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
13.569	99.6%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
13.445	95.2%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
13.206	99.6%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
13.200	98.3%	COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19)	Continuous
12.821	96.9%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
11.961	97.9%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
11.475	99.6%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
10.486	98.8%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.207	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
9.854	98.2%	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
9.692	98.5%	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
9.608	100.0%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
9.156	98.2%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
9.045	17.6%	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
8.625	99.9%	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
8.447	100.0%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
8.259	97.5%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
8.245	18.1%	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
8.210	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
7.939	99.4%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.781	99.6%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
7.399	98.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
7.346	99.6%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.870	99.6%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.599	76.4%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.466	45.3%	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
6.243	99.4%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
5.856	86.3%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
5.853	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
5.737	6.3%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
5.104	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
4.933	97.5%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
4.720	99.6%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
4.627	99.4%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
4.537	97.9%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
4.250	99.7%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
3.700	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
3.279	89.1%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
3.264	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
3.051	96.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.796	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
2.700	97.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
2.490	20.0%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
2.367	99.1%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
1.956	95.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
1.816	95.1%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
1.812	6.3%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
1.772	94.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.237	75.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.172	95.1%	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
1.095	6.3%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
1.070	94.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.051	100.0%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
1.025	99.8%	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
0.953	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
0.813	99.6%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
0.738	98.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.631	74.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.609	99.3%	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before)	Binary
0.602	1.5%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.586	85.6%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.433	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.379	72.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.367	7.0%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.345	77.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.321	89.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.311	90.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.231	10.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.213	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.190	77.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.147	96.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.121	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.068	94.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.064	8.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.054	10.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
-0.273	11.5%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
-0.367	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-0.411	93.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
-0.740	6.3%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.876	99.7%	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
-0.919	84.1%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-1.261	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
-1.346	99.5%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-1.350	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-1.644	99.9%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-1.749	94.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
-2.733	59.7%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
-3.412	84.2%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-3.568	99.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
-4.584	92.8%	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-5.040	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-5.384	91.8%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
-5.691	90.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
-6.949	66.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
-7.232	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-7.513	99.9%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
-7.830	97.5%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
-8.102	97.9%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
-8.435	66.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-8.682	97.5%	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
-10.278	90.5%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-11.043	97.5%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
-11.830	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-12.548	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-12.987	66.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
-13.217	57.8%	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
-14.419	97.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-16.958	99.8%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
-18.851	86.3%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
-38.641	75.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context))	Continuous
-52.627	75.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context))	Continuous
-61.643	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
-71.292	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary