borshigida

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.694	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.779	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
49.389	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
41.921	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
35.698	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
34.234	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
29.310	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
29.305	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.639	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.514	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
25.450	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
24.005	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
22.452	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
22.189	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
21.849	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.787	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
21.105	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
20.230	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
19.860	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
19.525	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
19.369	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
18.800	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
17.777	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
16.241	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
15.842	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
15.818	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.698	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
15.127	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
14.695	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
14.624	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.447	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
13.327	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
13.136	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
12.826	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
12.708	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
12.581	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
12.138	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.104	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
12.096	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.070	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
11.624	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
11.511	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
11.472	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.137	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
11.110	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
11.078	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.046	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
10.943	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
10.922	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
9.800	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
9.679	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
9.608	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
9.366	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
9.191	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
8.607	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
8.550	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
8.437	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
8.159	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.854	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
7.804	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.654	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
7.606	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
7.455	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
7.105	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
7.002	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
6.912	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
6.899	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
6.639	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
6.531	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
6.238	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
6.204	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
6.168	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.156	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
6.109	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
5.994	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
5.720	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
5.583	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
5.516	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
5.458	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
5.352	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
5.193	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.063	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.962	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
4.870	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
4.732	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
4.539	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
4.116	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
3.723	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.713	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
3.588	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.317	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
3.196	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.185	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
3.084	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
3.077	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
2.848	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.761	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.679	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.576	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.562	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
2.481	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
2.474	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.392	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
2.339	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
2.331	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.316	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
2.227	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
2.208	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.203	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
2.139	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
2.068	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
2.051	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
1.957	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
1.929	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
1.825	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
1.752	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
1.690	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
1.463	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.394	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.374	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
1.229	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.206	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.971	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
0.746	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.726	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
0.726	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
0.538	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
0.487	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
0.399	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
0.395	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
0.357	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
0.307	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.282	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.232	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
0.228	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
0.188	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
0.170	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
0.145	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
0.138	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
0.131	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
0.128	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
0.127	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
0.120	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
0.110	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.009	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.096	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-0.126	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-0.551	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-0.765	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.038	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-1.439	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-2.604	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary