valentin.vincendon

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.785	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
57.128	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
54.511	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
49.650	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
41.819	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
40.762	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
40.316	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.871	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
30.604	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
29.691	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
28.832	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
27.362	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
26.491	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
26.115	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
23.362	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
21.933	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.967	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.233	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
18.995	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
18.695	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
17.774	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.095	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
16.771	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
16.433	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
15.998	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.207	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
13.568	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.486	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
13.194	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.665	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
12.434	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
12.149	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
11.855	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
11.681	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
10.947	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.265	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
10.005	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
9.908	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
9.698	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
9.595	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
9.569	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
8.714	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
8.562	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
8.390	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
8.371	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
8.309	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.108	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
7.928	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
7.301	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
7.150	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
6.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
6.907	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
6.746	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.714	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
6.520	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
6.281	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
6.242	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.808	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
5.407	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
5.385	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
5.368	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
5.317	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
5.256	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
5.214	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.153	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
5.043	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
4.979	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
4.949	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
4.869	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
4.753	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.473	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
4.427	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
4.316	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.275	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
4.271	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
4.270	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.887	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
3.657	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
3.567	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
3.475	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
3.425	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
3.339	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
3.162	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
3.017	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
2.973	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
2.963	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
2.852	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
2.790	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
2.649	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
2.341	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
2.285	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
2.177	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
2.128	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
2.005	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
1.774	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.572	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
1.495	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
1.372	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
1.340	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
1.338	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
1.148	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
1.144	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
1.090	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
1.071	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
1.064	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
0.983	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.855	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
0.816	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
0.801	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.790	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
0.769	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
0.746	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
0.745	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.744	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.730	Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?	Binary
0.723	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.712	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
0.698	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
0.688	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
0.661	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.639	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
0.633	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.633	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
0.613	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
0.600	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
0.555	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.551	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
0.547	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.497	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
0.469	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
0.464	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
0.457	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
0.445	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.437	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
0.347	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.295	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
0.288	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.287	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
0.266	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
0.237	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
0.230	What percentage of the popular vote will presidential candidate Tharman Shanmugaratnam receive in the 2023 Singaporean presidential election?	Continuous
0.230	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
0.223	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.214	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
0.199	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
0.181	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.178	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.165	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.163	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
0.151	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.146	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.145	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.135	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
0.114	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
0.095	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
0.095	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.071	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.068	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.056	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
0.054	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
0.037	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
0.021	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
-0.021	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
-0.051	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
-0.057	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-0.068	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
-0.081	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
-0.081	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-0.086	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
-0.086	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
-0.086	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
-0.087	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
-0.098	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
-0.099	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
-0.103	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
-0.104	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
-0.104	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
-0.112	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
-0.119	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.129	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
-0.164	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
-0.317	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-0.339	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-0.391	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-0.558	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-0.588	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-0.640	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-0.646	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
-1.758	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
-1.834	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-2.762	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
-2.986	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
-3.275	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
-4.524	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-4.846	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.489	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-5.764	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-5.887	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-5.999	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-6.373	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
-7.526	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-10.917	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-18.807	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
-21.853	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
-22.409	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
-23.075	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
-28.932	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-32.345	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-34.736	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
-35.791	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-100.257	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary