skmmcj

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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16.79		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
126.069	93.9%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
112.119	99.9%	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
95.812	97.5%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
90.208	95.0%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
72.813	97.7%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
66.817	99.7%	How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024?	Continuous
66.700	93.9%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
64.256	97.0%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
60.765	98.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
58.733	62.0%	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
58.093	76.7%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
53.714	98.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
50.364	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
50.210	82.6%	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
49.536	96.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
49.159	99.9%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
48.600	96.0%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
48.359	98.8%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
48.312	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
47.424	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
47.094	94.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
46.839	67.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
46.417	86.3%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
43.624	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington)	Continuous
43.190	94.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
42.474	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
42.298	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
41.766	91.1%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
40.970	94.1%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
40.405	77.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
38.948	77.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
38.623	94.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
38.540	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
38.122	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
38.028	99.1%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
37.728	95.5%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024)	Continuous
37.175	99.8%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
36.614	91.5%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
35.630	94.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
35.142	62.1%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
34.831	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
34.719	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
34.637	86.3%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
33.591	98.9%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
33.441	95.8%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
32.151	99.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
32.022	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
31.135	99.9%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
30.755	98.9%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
30.275	86.3%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
29.527	70.1%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
29.340	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
29.139	85.3%	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
28.909	30.4%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
28.391	99.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
28.375	92.7%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
28.213	91.5%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
28.130	99.3%	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
27.565	96.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
25.255	60.0%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
25.153	89.4%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024)	Continuous
24.288	91.8%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
23.997	97.5%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
23.940	86.3%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
23.414	99.4%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
22.893	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
22.816	69.4%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
22.793	99.4%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
22.517	95.7%	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
22.444	51.4%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
22.327	95.0%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
21.558	99.0%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
21.446	96.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
21.267	93.7%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
20.992	99.4%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
20.944	95.0%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024)	Continuous
20.720	99.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
20.420	99.6%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
20.108	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
19.922	97.1%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
19.848	100.0%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
19.775	99.9%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
19.756	99.5%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
19.710	99.3%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
19.709	98.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
19.619	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
19.218	83.3%	COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19)	Continuous
19.117	94.0%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
18.896	93.9%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024)	Continuous
17.655	99.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
17.632	60.0%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
17.065	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
16.895	99.1%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
16.718	99.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
16.629	91.5%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
16.471	99.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
15.877	99.4%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
15.834	98.4%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
15.798	92.3%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
15.616	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
15.493	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
15.360	73.5%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
15.245	60.0%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
15.128	92.3%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024)	Continuous
15.058	93.9%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
15.005	92.6%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
14.944	99.4%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
14.785	99.4%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
14.463	97.4%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
14.307	92.6%	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
14.236	95.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
13.967	99.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
13.340	99.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
13.245	99.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
12.641	100.0%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
12.597	74.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
12.465	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
12.037	99.5%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
12.023	96.6%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
11.770	98.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
11.753	99.5%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.621	19.9%	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
11.267	70.0%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024)	Continuous
11.205	91.0%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
11.074	99.1%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
11.059	99.4%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.980	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
10.880	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
10.868	96.4%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
10.596	85.6%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
10.431	99.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
10.202	26.4%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
9.766	99.4%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
9.685	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
9.496	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
9.166	96.9%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
9.088	99.8%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
9.059	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
8.898	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
8.843	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
8.789	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
8.235	99.3%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
7.678	99.7%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
7.623	92.1%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.503	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
7.454	99.4%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.433	70.8%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
7.307	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
7.212	40.9%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24)	Continuous
7.205	77.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
7.184	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
7.111	99.4%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.040	92.8%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
7.028	96.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
6.864	98.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
6.499	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
6.355	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
6.157	98.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
6.017	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
5.971	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
5.891	93.9%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.720	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
5.520	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
5.278	99.4%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.241	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
5.221	99.1%	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
5.144	99.7%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
5.113	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
4.821	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
4.739	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
4.668	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.583	7.0%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
4.581	67.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
4.570	89.1%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
4.223	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
4.138	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
4.117	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
4.102	99.9%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
4.020	99.7%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
4.013	60.1%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
3.887	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
3.841	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
3.792	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
3.636	77.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
3.619	94.0%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
3.444	99.4%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
3.409	97.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
3.310	77.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
3.299	96.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
3.203	31.2%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
3.184	25.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
2.868	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.781	99.4%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
2.763	95.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.622	74.0%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
2.601	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
2.543	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
2.443	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
2.345	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
2.234	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
2.161	99.4%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
2.133	98.4%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
2.082	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.882	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
1.817	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
1.619	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
1.601	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
1.497	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
1.463	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
1.432	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
1.386	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.372	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
1.348	99.8%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.291	72.9%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
1.221	6.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.216	81.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.159	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
1.064	21.2%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
1.035	20.7%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
0.954	96.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.940	89.0%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
0.834	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.747	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.724	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
0.723	95.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.661	72.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.632	1.4%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.572	96.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.498	98.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.371	39.6%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
0.353	95.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.346	85.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.335	72.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.319	22.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.308	6.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.300	99.7%	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
0.288	85.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.287	6.4%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.278	95.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.264	77.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.242	0.6%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
0.237	97.2%	Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined)	Continuous
0.185	5.9%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.182	7.0%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.157	0.6%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
0.141	96.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.100	94.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
0.092	56.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.085	5.9%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.030	0.6%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.070	0.6%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-0.454	52.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
-0.484	78.9%	What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-0.683	8.0%	What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release?	Continuous
-0.709	94.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-1.160	18.5%	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
-1.462	26.3%	When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?	Continuous
-2.461	77.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
-3.613	21.7%	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-4.329	90.6%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-6.762	41.7%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
-8.592	98.1%	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
-8.928	77.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-10.022	98.5%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
-11.877	99.4%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-13.557	36.0%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
-14.040	98.8%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-15.416	98.6%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-22.211	94.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-24.261	94.1%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-24.953	94.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-26.627	94.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-36.372	91.5%	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
-41.527	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
-73.692	95.4%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
-92.341	53.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary