178.795 | How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023? | Continuous |
98.215 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
97.560 | Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023? | Binary |
96.585 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
96.505 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
96.436 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
94.578 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
94.550 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
94.427 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |
93.224 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
90.121 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
90.032 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
90.025 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
88.229 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023? | Binary |
86.742 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
86.736 | Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions? | Binary |
84.801 | Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024? | Binary |
84.792 | Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela? | Binary |
82.994 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024) | Binary |
82.966 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
82.780 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
82.264 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
80.824 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
80.695 | Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
80.145 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
79.267 | Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100) | Binary |
79.119 | Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped) | Continuous |
79.030 | Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300) | Binary |
78.929 | Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600) | Binary |
76.489 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | Binary |
76.217 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024) | Binary |
72.639 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
69.078 | Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
68.670 | How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023? | Continuous |
68.616 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
67.014 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
65.825 | Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor) | Continuous |
64.281 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
63.965 | Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
61.912 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
61.493 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | Binary |
61.065 | Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
59.319 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | Binary |
58.317 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
57.506 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024) | Binary |
56.504 | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | Binary |
55.493 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
55.041 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
51.959 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
50.057 | What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023? | Continuous |
50.032 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
49.636 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
47.993 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
42.160 | Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023? | Binary |
37.935 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
37.429 | Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize? | Binary |
34.503 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
34.236 | Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024? | Binary |
32.947 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
32.151 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
31.538 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | Binary |
28.889 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.719 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
28.431 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
28.199 | When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water? | Continuous |
27.850 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Binary |
27.699 | Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
26.348 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
25.700 | How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |
25.307 | Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023? | Binary |
24.774 | Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
24.631 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.411 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
21.112 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
19.037 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
18.983 | When will The One Ring be found? | Continuous |
18.532 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
16.991 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Binary |
16.982 | Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case? | Binary |
15.754 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
15.277 | How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023? | Continuous |
13.996 | Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023? | Binary |
12.843 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.575 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
12.285 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
11.521 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
11.484 | Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended? | Binary |
11.268 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023) | Continuous |
9.817 | Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate? | Binary |
9.676 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.514 | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | Binary |
7.723 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |
6.802 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023) | Binary |
6.773 | Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023? | Binary |
6.393 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.823 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
4.665 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
3.272 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
2.941 | How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located? | Continuous |
2.361 | Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
0.625 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.228 | Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law? | Binary |
-0.139 | Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023? | Binary |
-0.750 | Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-2.120 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-3.049 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-12.983 | Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
-13.558 | What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election? | Continuous |
-49.517 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
-106.145 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
-128.194 | Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023? | Binary |