darron

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.458	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
37.970	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
33.915	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
27.642	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
26.308	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
26.260	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.413	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
25.223	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
23.352	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
21.536	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
20.857	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
19.494	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.897	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
16.230	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
15.362	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
14.530	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
14.039	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
13.702	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
13.446	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
13.444	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
13.443	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
12.660	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
12.386	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
12.090	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
11.312	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.094	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.068	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
10.894	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
10.801	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
10.766	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.237	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
9.257	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
8.896	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
8.627	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
8.584	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
8.500	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
8.035	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
7.580	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.579	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
7.566	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
7.482	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
7.313	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.263	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
7.167	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.915	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
6.641	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
6.586	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
6.580	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
6.257	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
6.188	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
6.131	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
6.052	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
6.034	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
6.024	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.854	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
5.620	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
4.878	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
4.846	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.747	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
4.721	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.619	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
4.520	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
4.515	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
4.472	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
4.437	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
4.377	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
4.355	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.721	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
3.560	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.443	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
3.259	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
3.223	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
3.202	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
3.047	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
3.026	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
2.734	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.705	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.431	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.292	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.083	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
2.049	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.032	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
2.014	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
2.010	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
2.001	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
1.940	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.868	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.864	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
1.844	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
1.796	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
1.756	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
1.751	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
1.685	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
1.630	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.616	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
1.570	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
1.526	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
1.513	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.503	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
1.374	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
1.211	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
1.158	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
1.126	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.047	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
1.036	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.028	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
0.972	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.969	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
0.906	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
0.808	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
0.766	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
0.703	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
0.622	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
0.621	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
0.621	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
0.589	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
0.580	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
0.513	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
0.476	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.447	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.398	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
0.388	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
0.376	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
0.305	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
0.284	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
0.256	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
0.230	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
0.199	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
0.187	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.158	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
0.156	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.134	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
0.129	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
0.076	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
0.069	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
0.053	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
0.053	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
0.037	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.036	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
0.024	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
-0.048	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
-0.156	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
-0.195	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
-0.414	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
-0.595	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
-0.635	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-0.763	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-0.805	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
-1.523	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
-1.922	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-2.362	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-2.657	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
-3.578	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-4.745	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary