datscilly

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

13.64k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
174.190	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
164.888	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
160.606	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
160.471	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
158.099	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
141.573	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
101.767	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
98.311	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
98.187	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
98.130	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
98.068	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
98.068	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
97.548	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
97.370	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
96.960	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
96.952	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
96.784	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
96.610	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
95.475	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
95.138	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
95.020	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
93.744	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
93.336	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
92.206	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.147	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
92.146	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
92.146	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
92.146	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
92.110	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
92.026	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
91.830	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
90.917	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
90.434	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
88.474	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
88.474	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
88.474	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
87.988	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
87.934	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
87.782	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
87.697	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
87.674	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
86.908	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
86.395	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
86.254	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
86.147	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
85.119	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
84.646	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
84.490	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
84.448	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
84.384	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
84.280	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
84.095	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
84.095	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
84.095	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
83.570	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
83.163	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
82.699	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
82.023	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
81.196	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
80.435	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
79.895	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
79.818	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
79.754	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
79.361	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
79.109	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
78.740	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
78.479	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
78.326	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
78.013	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
77.299	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
77.242	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
76.928	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
76.926	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
76.296	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
76.036	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
74.831	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
74.711	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
74.480	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
73.609	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
73.041	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
72.787	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
71.287	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
70.907	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
70.724	Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?	Binary
70.689	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
70.064	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
69.523	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
69.522	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
69.410	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
67.824	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2025)	Binary
67.734	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
67.717	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
67.680	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
67.667	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
67.667	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
67.655	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
67.475	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
67.243	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
67.243	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
67.027	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
66.962	Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?	Binary
66.927	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
66.516	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
66.254	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
65.921	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
64.074	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
63.799	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
63.418	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
63.397	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
62.965	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
62.589	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
61.399	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
60.538	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
60.427	What will Meta’s yearly operating loss on Reality Labs be? (2025)	Continuous
60.259	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
60.059	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
59.865	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
59.865	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
59.865	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
59.865	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
59.752	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
59.739	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
59.363	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
59.240	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
59.240	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
59.030	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
59.030	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
58.942	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
58.744	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
58.468	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
58.460	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
58.425	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
58.402	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
58.210	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
57.988	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
57.849	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
57.586	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
56.462	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
56.369	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
56.176	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
56.106	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
54.923	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
54.771	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
54.075	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
53.882	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
53.791	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
53.740	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
53.117	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
52.985	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	Continuous
52.057	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
51.879	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
51.568	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
50.139	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
49.626	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
49.425	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
49.184	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
48.894	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
48.865	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
47.782	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
47.586	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
46.719	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
46.717	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
46.383	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
46.151	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
46.098	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
45.995	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
45.475	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
44.855	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
44.681	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
44.035	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
43.880	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
43.404	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
42.998	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
42.857	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
42.524	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
42.400	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
42.207	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
42.134	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
42.080	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
42.007	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
41.872	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
39.765	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
38.905	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
38.859	Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?	Binary
38.648	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
38.237	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
37.911	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
37.127	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
36.945	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
36.605	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
36.587	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
36.542	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
36.448	Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026)	Binary
36.097	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
35.231	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
34.666	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
34.264	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
32.740	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
32.584	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
32.035	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
29.906	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
29.180	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
29.118	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
28.704	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
28.599	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
27.821	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
27.677	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
27.353	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
27.269	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
27.108	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
27.009	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
26.268	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
26.184	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
26.115	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
25.516	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
25.304	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
24.148	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
23.717	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
22.935	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
21.960	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
21.845	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
21.739	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
21.588	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
20.945	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
20.719	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
20.464	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
20.416	If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?	Binary
20.205	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
19.938	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
19.924	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
19.892	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
19.844	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
19.491	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024)	Continuous
19.182	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
19.020	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
18.958	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
18.779	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
18.203	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
16.785	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
16.544	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
16.327	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
15.798	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
15.722	How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
15.036	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024)	Continuous
14.639	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
14.425	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
12.791	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
12.154	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
12.043	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
11.217	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
10.906	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
10.900	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
10.501	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
8.514	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
8.276	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
8.185	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
7.946	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
7.863	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
7.599	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
6.687	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
5.080	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
4.960	What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025?	Continuous
4.822	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
4.822	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
4.822	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
4.822	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
4.161	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
4.047	What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022?	Continuous
3.565	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
3.291	When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US?	Continuous
2.563	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
2.465	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
2.314	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
2.148	Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?	Binary
2.061	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
1.221	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
0.979	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.689	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.643	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.610	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
0.376	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.278	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
-	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
-0.010	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-0.310	When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union?	Continuous
-1.707	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
-1.712	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
-2.145	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.283	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-4.225	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-5.203	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-7.713	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-11.272	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
-17.163	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
-17.166	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-22.032	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-22.360	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-24.089	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-25.428	How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-30.942	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous
-33.609	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-39.421	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-40.133	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-40.359	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-43.200	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-45.465	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-47.127	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-51.222	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-52.150	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-57.594	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-62.393	Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?	Binary
-89.711	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-92.095	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-101.261	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-113.491	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-121.924	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-168.846	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous