datscilly

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

4.204k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
121.177	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
114.160	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
102.378	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
99.446	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
92.506	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
90.234	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
89.461	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
88.396	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
84.786	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
84.738	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
84.273	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
81.264	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
77.583	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
75.710	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
74.259	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
73.458	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
72.909	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
72.374	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
71.122	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
69.587	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
68.830	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
68.044	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
65.687	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
65.067	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
64.257	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
64.087	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
64.020	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
63.800	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
63.682	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
62.826	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
62.384	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
61.915	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
61.250	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
60.903	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
58.503	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
58.175	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
57.900	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
57.829	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
56.411	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
55.930	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
55.221	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
54.749	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
54.085	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
53.683	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
52.175	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
51.712	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
51.019	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
49.464	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
48.922	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
48.627	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
47.815	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
47.649	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
47.053	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
46.336	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
46.104	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
45.788	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
45.006	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
44.376	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
43.946	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
42.326	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
42.171	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
42.093	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
41.902	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
39.899	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
39.441	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
38.384	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
37.819	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
37.797	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
37.584	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
36.425	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
33.541	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
33.053	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
32.669	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
32.506	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
31.454	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
30.753	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
30.699	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
29.836	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
28.894	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
27.463	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
27.296	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
24.801	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
24.791	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
23.548	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
20.575	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
20.216	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
19.093	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
19.064	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
17.957	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
14.295	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
14.050	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
11.177	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
10.893	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
10.477	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
10.166	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
9.992	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
9.693	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
9.324	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
9.230	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
8.246	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
7.973	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
7.680	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
7.620	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
7.375	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
6.381	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
4.278	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
3.513	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
3.384	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
3.131	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
3.043	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
1.267	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
1.107	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
0.208	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
0.132	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-1.390	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-2.054	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-4.147	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-5.686	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-7.626	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-11.785	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-16.231	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-18.599	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-22.990	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-28.699	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-37.051	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-38.639	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-38.645	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-41.097	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-42.544	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-46.288	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-47.281	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-47.428	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-87.571	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-91.533	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-172.662	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary