| 133.141 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 128.090 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 124.265 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 118.283 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 114.974 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 109.483 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 106.532 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 103.314 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min) | Continuous |
| 102.099 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 98.614 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.210 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 98.178 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 97.646 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 97.466 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 97.178 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 96.732 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 96.535 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 96.352 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 96.045 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 96.028 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.746 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 95.706 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.511 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 95.427 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 95.303 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 94.815 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
| 94.521 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 94.254 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 93.842 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min) | Continuous |
| 93.836 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.828 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 93.616 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 93.254 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 93.014 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 92.979 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.774 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 92.684 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 92.474 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.222 | Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026? | Binary |
| 91.894 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 91.847 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 91.649 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.913 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 90.681 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 90.344 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.214 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 88.862 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 88.683 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 88.082 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 87.733 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 86.895 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 86.200 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 86.108 | If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 85.914 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 84.697 | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.504 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 84.436 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 84.420 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 83.939 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.710 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.499 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 82.983 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 82.810 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 82.693 | Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026? | Binary |
| 82.115 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 82.011 | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 81.836 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 81.510 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 80.726 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 80.621 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.045 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 79.997 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 79.906 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 79.443 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.382 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 79.102 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 79.087 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 78.330 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 77.486 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.116 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 76.863 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max) | Continuous |
| 76.670 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 76.484 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 76.367 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 76.331 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 76.283 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 76.024 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min) | Continuous |
| 75.183 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 74.962 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.615 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 74.403 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 74.378 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 73.545 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 72.421 | How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide? | Continuous |
| 72.064 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 71.888 | In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women? | Continuous |
| 71.800 | How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war? | Continuous |
| 71.693 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 71.562 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.172 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 71.076 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 70.587 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 70.531 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 70.415 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 70.384 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.757 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.696 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.685 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 68.112 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.650 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus) | Binary |
| 67.541 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Green) | Binary |
| 66.671 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 66.443 | Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025? | Binary |
| 66.398 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.123 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 66.072 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 66.053 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 65.930 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max) | Continuous |
| 65.658 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Christian Democratic) | Binary |
| 65.656 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 65.654 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 65.485 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Socialist Left) | Binary |
| 65.464 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 65.403 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 65.346 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 65.258 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 65.235 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 65.217 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 64.983 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 64.835 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.834 | How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 64.734 | Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026? | Binary |
| 64.463 | What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report? | Continuous |
| 64.125 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 63.911 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 63.160 | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 63.156 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 63.110 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 63.044 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Red Party) | Binary |
| 63.033 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max) | Continuous |
| 62.998 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 62.980 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 62.810 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| 62.719 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Centre) | Binary |
| 62.649 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 62.510 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 62.494 | Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026? | Binary |
| 62.472 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.484 | In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? | Continuous |
| 61.194 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 60.711 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 60.703 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 60.581 | When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? | Continuous |
| 59.508 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 59.178 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 57.880 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 57.667 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 57.524 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 57.410 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation? | Continuous |
| 57.133 | How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? | Continuous |
| 56.918 | What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022? | Continuous |
| 56.807 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 56.783 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 56.450 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 56.263 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.151 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 55.076 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 55.026 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 54.706 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 54.540 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 54.515 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 54.421 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 54.367 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 54.173 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 53.408 | Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? | Binary |
| 53.084 | Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Binary |
| 52.860 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 52.635 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025? | Continuous |
| 52.241 | When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa? | Continuous |
| 51.897 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 51.849 | How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 51.246 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 51.051 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 50.845 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 50.603 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026? | Binary |
| 50.599 | Will Bud Light cease production by 2026? | Binary |
| 50.363 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress) | Binary |
| 50.122 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 50.033 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 49.968 | Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025? | Binary |
| 49.830 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 49.483 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 48.753 | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| 47.871 | Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026? | Binary |
| 47.404 | Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026? | Binary |
| 47.213 | Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 47.198 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? | Continuous |
| 47.151 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.015 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 46.871 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 46.809 | If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 46.680 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 46.630 | How many charter cities will exist by 2026? | Continuous |
| 46.037 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 45.986 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 45.584 | In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2025) | Binary |
| 45.555 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 45.361 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.670 | Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026? | Binary |
| 44.515 | What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 44.478 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 43.361 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 43.143 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |
| 42.859 | Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025? | Binary |
| 42.844 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 42.761 | Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026? | Binary |
| 42.276 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 42.099 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 41.661 | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 41.467 | Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election? | Binary |
| 41.412 | What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024? | Continuous |
| 41.282 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 40.945 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 40.859 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 40.289 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 40.261 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 40.022 | In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus? | Binary |
| 39.856 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
| 39.819 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 38.828 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 38.738 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 38.617 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 38.480 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 38.123 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.853 | What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)? | Continuous |
| 37.755 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 37.677 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.601 | Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026? | Binary |
| 37.510 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| 37.041 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| 36.345 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 35.587 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 35.197 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.160 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 35.107 | When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000? | Continuous |
| 34.749 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 34.723 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 34.395 | Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? | Binary |
| 34.305 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 33.832 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 33.829 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 33.751 | How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025? | Continuous |
| 33.659 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 33.568 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 33.188 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.965 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 32.163 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 31.722 | Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term? | Binary |
| 31.436 | What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.727 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 30.342 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 30.298 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 29.791 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.708 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025? | Continuous |
| 29.144 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 29.139 | How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year? | Continuous |
| 28.844 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States) | Binary |
| 28.837 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 28.557 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 28.090 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 27.721 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 27.674 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 27.291 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 27.224 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 27.201 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 26.956 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 26.821 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 26.433 | What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025? | Continuous |
| 26.191 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 25.766 | Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 25.752 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025? | Continuous |
| 25.514 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 25.316 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 25.114 | Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.829 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.532 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 23.186 | Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025? | Binary |
| 23.048 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 22.733 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 22.449 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 21.611 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.290 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 21.186 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 21.095 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.110 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 19.776 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.715 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| 18.640 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 17.807 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.629 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 17.437 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.338 | How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.259 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 16.946 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 16.890 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 16.398 | How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? | Continuous |
| 15.601 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 15.573 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 14.915 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| 14.819 | Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026? | Binary |
| 14.011 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026) | Continuous |
| 13.567 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| 12.499 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.037 | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 11.461 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 11.264 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2025) | Continuous |
| 11.250 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| 11.135 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 10.739 | Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026? | Binary |
| 10.580 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.518 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 8.855 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? | Continuous |
| 8.570 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 8.080 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.042 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 7.578 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 7.465 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.257 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.662 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 5.630 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 5.473 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 5.275 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 5.229 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 4.669 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 4.507 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 4.339 | Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025? | Binary |
| 4.219 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 3.681 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.505 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 3.479 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 3.445 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 2.834 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 2.789 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 2.125 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| 2.057 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.939 | What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025? | Continuous |
| 1.181 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.058 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.925 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.917 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
| 0.419 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| - | Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030? | Binary |
| -0.594 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| -1.361 | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| -1.524 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -2.017 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| -2.131 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -2.754 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -4.449 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -4.528 | How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? | Continuous |
| -4.750 | What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025? | Continuous |
| -5.311 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -5.320 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -5.548 | What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -5.582 | When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price? | Continuous |
| -5.610 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| -8.171 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| -8.432 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -8.918 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| -9.707 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| -10.470 | Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family? | Binary |
| -11.364 | Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? | Binary |
| -12.057 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024? | Continuous |
| -13.099 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| -13.592 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| -13.726 | What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -13.953 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.871 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -15.047 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| -15.106 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -15.452 | BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? | Binary |
| -17.152 | How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021? | Continuous |
| -18.108 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| -23.180 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -23.778 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | Continuous |
| -23.919 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| -24.200 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -24.923 | Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -25.983 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -27.825 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| -28.723 | Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026? | Binary |
| -29.903 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -31.907 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| -32.087 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Labour) | Binary |
| -32.244 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| -33.109 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| -35.124 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -36.123 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -37.035 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| -39.880 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -40.500 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -42.324 | Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025? | Binary |
| -44.907 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -48.458 | How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? | Continuous |
| -49.119 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| -49.416 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| -49.990 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -53.064 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -59.461 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -60.116 | What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -61.266 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| -61.292 | Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election? | Binary |
| -63.358 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| -73.152 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -74.072 | When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? | Continuous |
| -79.191 | When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? | Continuous |
| -82.107 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -88.713 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| -100.429 | When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? | Continuous |
| -101.112 | Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| -116.897 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| -122.507 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -124.608 | What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? | Continuous |
| -135.274 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -165.941 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -174.077 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -175.424 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -176.421 | What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -177.349 | If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025? | Continuous |
| -183.391 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |