TheObsoleteMan

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9099	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.329	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
86.502	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
84.761	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
83.733	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
81.834	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
81.817	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
81.092	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
80.935	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants)	Binary
80.813	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
80.280	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
79.831	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
79.515	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
79.342	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
78.294	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
78.102	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
77.625	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
77.231	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
77.099	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
77.031	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
76.783	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
76.319	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
75.322	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
74.882	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
74.806	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
74.050	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots)	Binary
73.672	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
73.672	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
73.634	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
73.379	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
73.379	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
73.309	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
73.149	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
72.034	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
72.034	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
72.034	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
72.034	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
70.921	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
70.904	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
70.647	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
70.570	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
70.088	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
70.015	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets)	Binary
69.762	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
69.361	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
66.127	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
65.873	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
64.954	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
64.942	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
64.636	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
64.406	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
63.922	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
63.794	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
62.955	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
62.482	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
62.129	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
61.633	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
61.342	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
61.323	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
61.095	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
59.454	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
58.618	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
58.466	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
58.439	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
57.944	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
57.241	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
55.473	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
54.859	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
54.849	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
54.741	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
54.080	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
54.080	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans)	Binary
53.780	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
53.372	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
52.846	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
52.628	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
52.379	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
52.133	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
52.055	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
52.047	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
51.669	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
51.634	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
51.128	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
51.116	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
50.680	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
50.473	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
50.157	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
49.909	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
49.546	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
49.179	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
48.875	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
48.747	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
48.193	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
48.186	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
48.173	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
47.990	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
47.847	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
47.734	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
47.311	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
47.250	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
47.112	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
47.111	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
46.815	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
46.770	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
46.257	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
45.821	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
45.259	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
45.224	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
44.847	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
44.784	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
44.761	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
44.536	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
43.785	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
43.215	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
42.819	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
42.584	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
42.236	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
41.269	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
40.778	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
40.644	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
40.558	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
40.464	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
40.129	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
38.881	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
38.779	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
38.718	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
38.536	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
38.375	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
38.200	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
37.859	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
37.621	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
37.324	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
37.256	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
36.931	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
36.886	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
36.422	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
36.183	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
35.843	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
35.718	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
35.459	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
35.150	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
34.974	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
34.378	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
33.635	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
33.503	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
32.580	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
32.482	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
32.346	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
32.337	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
32.036	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
31.904	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
30.041	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
29.828	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
29.743	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
29.328	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
28.873	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
28.261	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
27.615	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
27.569	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
27.495	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
27.316	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
27.164	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
26.969	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
26.862	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.791	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
26.710	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
26.470	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
26.342	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
26.136	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
26.031	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
26.021	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
25.413	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
24.847	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
24.763	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
24.753	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
24.627	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
24.186	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
23.191	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
23.129	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
23.077	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
21.703	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
21.635	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
20.740	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
20.063	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
19.441	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
19.099	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
18.531	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
17.627	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
17.474	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
17.273	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.711	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
14.473	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
14.471	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
13.850	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
13.688	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
13.427	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
13.373	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
12.675	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
12.617	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
12.614	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
11.967	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
11.904	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
11.813	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
11.503	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
11.435	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
11.423	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
11.377	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
11.273	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
11.239	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
11.199	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
11.081	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
10.953	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
10.879	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
10.784	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
10.454	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
10.435	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
10.418	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
10.344	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
10.306	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.270	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
10.270	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
10.186	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
10.146	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
9.939	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
9.878	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
9.834	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
9.797	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
9.746	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
9.600	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
9.576	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
9.552	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
9.375	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
9.333	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
9.092	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
9.062	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
8.988	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
8.945	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
8.666	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
8.429	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
8.380	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
8.093	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.983	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
7.982	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
7.967	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
7.654	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
7.284	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
6.880	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
6.427	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
6.169	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
6.111	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
5.953	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
5.895	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
5.809	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
5.796	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.523	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
5.314	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
4.946	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
4.620	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
4.184	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
3.988	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
2.453	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.260	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
1.909	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
1.527	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
0.793	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.765	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.735	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
0.660	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.650	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.637	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.598	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
0.532	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.511	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.189	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
0.179	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
0.057	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.014	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
-	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
-	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.123	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
-0.249	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
-0.601	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.134	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-1.266	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-1.415	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-2.218	Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?	Binary
-3.754	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
-6.208	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
-7.623	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
-7.627	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-7.850	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-8.350	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-9.678	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-9.858	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-11.183	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-16.422	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
-19.587	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-24.153	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-26.220	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-28.344	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-28.765	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.821	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-32.256	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-32.528	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-33.356	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
-41.823	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
-55.631	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-66.058	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-158.714	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
-273.169	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary