| 210.509 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) | Continuous |
| 193.087 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) | Continuous |
| 182.232 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) | Continuous |
| 158.872 | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 117.791 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 113.302 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 111.191 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 105.748 | How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 98.921 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 97.219 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 96.923 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 95.976 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 95.976 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 95.899 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 95.651 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 95.607 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 94.171 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 93.306 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.671 | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| 91.783 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 91.051 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.592 | How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 88.879 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 88.449 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R) | Continuous |
| 88.090 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 87.850 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) | Continuous |
| 87.230 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 86.683 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 86.327 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) | Continuous |
| 85.527 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 85.491 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 85.440 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 84.174 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 83.765 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 80.590 | What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 80.567 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 78.512 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 75.640 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 74.834 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 72.559 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 72.558 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 71.504 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 70.706 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 69.856 | How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 69.215 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026? | Binary |
| 68.261 | If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 68.067 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 65.450 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (No Labels) | Continuous |
| 65.139 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 64.236 | Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026? | Binary |
| 63.600 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 63.577 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 63.388 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 63.388 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 63.325 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 62.532 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 62.321 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 62.321 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 61.678 | Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025? | Binary |
| 61.634 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 61.548 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 60.793 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 60.515 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 60.451 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 60.401 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 60.364 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 60.110 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 59.533 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 58.926 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 58.514 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 58.427 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 58.408 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 58.193 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 58.192 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 57.884 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 57.691 | What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 55.813 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 55.695 | If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 53.450 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 52.440 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 52.145 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.931 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 51.922 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 51.873 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.475 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.056 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 50.294 | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 50.108 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 49.811 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 49.366 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 47.388 | In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? | Continuous |
| 47.374 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 45.782 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 45.719 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 45.445 | What will the US life expectancy be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 44.126 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 44.117 | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 43.483 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 42.703 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| 42.303 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 42.210 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.169 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 41.886 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 41.627 | How many months in prison will Andrew Tate be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 40.511 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 39.591 | What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 39.576 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.319 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 39.004 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 38.863 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 38.469 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 38.443 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 38.378 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.751 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.484 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.912 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 36.838 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.673 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 36.673 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 36.480 | What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025? | Continuous |
| 36.446 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 36.432 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 36.360 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 36.314 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.198 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 36.198 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 34.707 | Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026? | Binary |
| 34.500 | What will OpenAI's estimated Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) be in 2024? | Continuous |
| 32.529 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025) | Continuous |
| 31.720 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 31.615 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 31.615 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 30.862 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron) | Continuous |
| 30.768 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 28.541 | What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025) | Continuous |
| 28.384 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 27.923 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 27.119 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 26.181 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 25.714 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Green) | Binary |
| 25.712 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Socialist Left) | Binary |
| 25.712 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Centre) | Binary |
| 25.712 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Red Party) | Binary |
| 25.712 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| 25.712 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Christian Democratic) | Binary |
| 25.712 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus) | Binary |
| 25.474 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.930 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 24.013 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 23.895 | What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 23.611 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 23.098 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 23.042 | Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026? | Binary |
| 22.960 | How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 22.611 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 22.094 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 21.362 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 20.901 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2024) | Continuous |
| 20.842 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 20.739 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.621 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 20.281 | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.947 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 19.896 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 19.032 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 18.577 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.132 | What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025) | Continuous |
| 18.126 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 18.126 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 18.126 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 17.956 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 17.928 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.632 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 17.582 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 17.384 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| 17.115 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 17.074 | What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)? | Continuous |
| 16.816 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress) | Binary |
| 16.813 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.155 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 16.129 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 16.044 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 15.911 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 15.561 | How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 15.262 | What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 15.188 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 14.947 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.595 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.408 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 14.307 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 13.714 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 13.456 | Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025? | Binary |
| 13.448 | How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 13.447 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2025) | Continuous |
| 13.405 | In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2025) | Binary |
| 13.238 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 13.021 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.658 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.555 | What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025? | Continuous |
| 12.516 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 12.481 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 12.331 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.325 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.217 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.777 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.576 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 11.383 | Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025? | Binary |
| 10.927 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.412 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.304 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 10.304 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 10.304 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 10.304 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 10.304 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 10.263 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024) | Continuous |
| 10.213 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.150 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 10.074 | Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.959 | Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.959 | Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.943 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.849 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.648 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| 9.648 | Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| 9.574 | Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term? | Binary |
| 9.531 | What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 9.303 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 9.232 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 9.210 | How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025? | Continuous |
| 9.075 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 8.838 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 8.489 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 8.366 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 8.324 | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.313 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 8.260 | What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.184 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| 7.877 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 7.866 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.733 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 7.669 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 7.494 | How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? | Continuous |
| 7.212 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 7.157 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 6.953 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 6.773 | Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Labour) | Binary |
| 6.577 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 6.350 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 6.185 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 6.184 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.104 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 6.100 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 5.898 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 5.706 | Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.531 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 5.498 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q2) | Continuous |
| 5.207 | What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? | Continuous |
| 4.967 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 4.692 | If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025? | Continuous |
| 4.683 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| 4.656 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
| 4.515 | How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | Continuous |
| 4.362 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 4.284 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 3.947 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.921 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 3.794 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 3.743 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 3.688 | Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election? | Binary |
| 3.464 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.674 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.635 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.452 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 2.246 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.243 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 2.207 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.026 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 1.949 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 1.942 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025? | Continuous |
| 1.923 | How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026? | Continuous |
| 1.877 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.877 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 1.853 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 1.832 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 1.691 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.629 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 1.604 | Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.542 | How many charter cities will exist by 2026? | Continuous |
| 1.515 | Will Bud Light cease production by 2026? | Binary |
| 1.457 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.433 | Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.412 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 1.368 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.339 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.335 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.316 | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.300 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.269 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 1.269 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 1.269 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 1.269 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 1.269 | Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 1.227 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.218 | Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025? | Binary |
| 1.217 | How many infants will New Incentives' childhood vaccination program reach by the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 1.182 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| 1.173 | How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? | Continuous |
| 1.142 | Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.134 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 1.095 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| 1.095 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States) | Binary |
| 1.088 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.065 | Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.065 | Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.035 | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.961 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.950 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.950 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.825 | Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 0.797 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.796 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 0.786 | How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.730 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.665 | Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025? | Binary |
| 0.644 | Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025? | Binary |
| 0.631 | Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.629 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.628 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 0.628 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 0.628 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 0.621 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.617 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 0.617 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.616 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 0.580 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.578 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 0.565 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.542 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.523 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.523 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.521 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.521 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.518 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.491 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q4 (FY2025, ends Jan 2025)) | Continuous |
| 0.491 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 0.486 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 0.469 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.453 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.450 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.449 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.410 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 0.406 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 0.372 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.355 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.266 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 0.261 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.246 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.193 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 0.181 | Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026? | Binary |
| 0.112 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 0.063 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.013 | What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.000 | When will Moscow (stock) Exchange reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners? | Continuous |
| - | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| - | In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus? | Binary |
| - | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.719 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| -0.747 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| -0.879 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -1.114 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -1.954 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -2.037 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | Continuous |
| -2.189 | When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case) | Continuous |
| -3.830 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -3.876 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q1) | Continuous |
| -5.596 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| -5.952 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| -6.068 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -8.414 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -8.614 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| -8.736 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -9.363 | When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? | Continuous |
| -9.511 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| -9.752 | What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025? | Continuous |
| -10.214 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -11.447 | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -13.528 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.033 | What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q3) | Continuous |
| -15.951 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -19.759 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -20.709 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -21.058 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024? | Continuous |
| -22.004 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -23.571 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| -23.571 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| -26.521 | When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case) | Continuous |
| -27.341 | Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election? | Binary |
| -28.771 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -30.282 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -36.722 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -38.293 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -39.222 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -40.018 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -41.005 | How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025? | Continuous |
| -43.063 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026) | Continuous |
| -44.400 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -47.201 | What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? | Continuous |
| -49.209 | What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -52.164 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -52.580 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| -55.527 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| -64.606 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -103.002 | Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -208.201 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -208.840 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| -336.023 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |