| 99.855 | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 99.613 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 99.451 | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.520 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.518 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.359 | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
| 95.862 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.223 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 92.572 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 92.568 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 92.561 | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
| 92.466 | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
| 92.090 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.795 | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| 91.532 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 91.415 | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 91.306 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 91.141 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 90.931 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 90.418 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
| 88.528 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 87.996 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
| 87.971 | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
| 86.236 | Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.185 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 86.185 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 86.185 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 86.185 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 86.185 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
| 86.185 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
| 86.127 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 85.371 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 84.961 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.817 | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.581 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 84.581 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 84.581 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 84.581 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
| 84.533 | [Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly? | Binary |
| 83.883 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 82.424 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| 81.815 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
| 81.815 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
| 81.815 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
| 79.565 | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
| 79.235 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
| 79.235 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
| 79.084 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 77.641 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 77.491 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.327 | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 76.250 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 74.588 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 73.655 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 73.576 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
| 73.353 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
| 71.950 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.759 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 71.429 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
| 71.429 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
| 71.367 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 70.842 | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
| 67.814 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.135 | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | Binary |
| 64.679 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 62.912 | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 61.531 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 60.785 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 59.984 | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.714 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.403 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 57.781 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladislav Davankov) | Continuous |
| 57.769 | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 57.657 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Nikolay Kharitonov) | Continuous |
| 57.472 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 57.132 | What will be the price of Palladium futures (in $USD) at the end of 2024? | Continuous |
| 56.553 | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
| 56.096 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 55.683 | DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024 | Binary |
| 55.420 | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
| 54.869 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 54.550 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Leonid Slutsky) | Continuous |
| 54.132 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.495 | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
| 52.655 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.808 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.399 | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 50.228 | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
| 48.449 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.983 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 47.598 | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 47.013 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.023 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 45.039 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 44.400 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | Binary |
| 40.550 | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
| 39.797 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 39.542 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 38.642 | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? | Binary |
| 38.636 | Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? | Binary |
| 37.490 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
| 37.268 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
| 35.912 | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 35.718 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
| 35.718 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
| 35.325 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
| 35.095 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
| 35.083 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.260 | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.679 | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.245 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
| 32.203 | On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark? | Multiple Choice |
| 31.734 | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
| 30.705 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 29.830 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 27.009 | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.171 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
| 25.532 | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 24.576 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 23.079 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 22.507 | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.026 | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
| 17.797 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.558 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 16.450 | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 14.842 | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
| 13.747 | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
| 13.746 | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Binary |
| 13.666 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| 12.891 | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 12.834 | Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives? | Binary |
| 12.365 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.946 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 11.565 | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2024) | Continuous |
| 11.130 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 10.957 | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
| 10.345 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladimir Putin) | Continuous |
| 9.944 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.880 | Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup? | Multiple Choice |
| 7.745 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025 | Binary |
| 4.692 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
| 4.435 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 4.389 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.227 | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
| 3.743 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.710 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.582 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States) | Binary |
| 2.942 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
| - | US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| - | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| -1.525 | Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -4.465 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
| -4.756 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -6.046 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| -7.282 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -7.488 | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
| -9.710 | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| -10.104 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| -10.489 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -19.484 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -19.902 | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
| -21.028 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| -29.382 | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -31.041 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
| -36.397 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -41.626 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
| -45.060 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
| -45.667 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
| -47.531 | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
| -53.797 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -61.203 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
| -62.914 | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| -76.013 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| -103.839 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
| -118.579 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
| -122.121 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -128.165 | Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May? | Binary |
| -142.274 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -148.265 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -164.053 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -205.607 | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
| -206.126 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
| -257.718 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
| -286.684 | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
| -478.585 | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |
| -625.242 | Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024? | Binary |