darron

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3971	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
82.212	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
76.986	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
75.811	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
72.710	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
72.474	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
71.080	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
70.240	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
69.486	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
69.330	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
68.931	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
67.278	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
66.974	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
61.532	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
58.960	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
55.611	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
55.492	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
55.126	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
53.059	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
52.844	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
51.017	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
51.017	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
50.790	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
49.769	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
49.220	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
49.056	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
48.604	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
47.528	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
47.126	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
45.635	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
45.523	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
45.219	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
45.185	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
44.877	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
44.759	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
44.588	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
44.588	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
44.572	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
44.566	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
44.551	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
44.014	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
43.505	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
43.412	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
42.224	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
41.161	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
41.155	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
40.972	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
40.746	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
40.466	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
40.447	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
40.348	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
39.786	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
39.594	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
39.482	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
39.265	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
39.077	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
39.072	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
38.542	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
37.287	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.098	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
35.730	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
35.594	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
35.431	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
35.316	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
34.443	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
32.635	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
32.111	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
32.070	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
31.972	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
30.176	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
29.835	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
29.400	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.136	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
29.027	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
25.355	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
25.193	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
23.779	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
23.148	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
21.287	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
20.863	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
20.841	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
20.693	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
19.601	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
18.421	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
17.783	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
17.342	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
16.572	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
16.310	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
16.275	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
15.328	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
14.797	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
13.730	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
13.418	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
13.327	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
12.944	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
12.656	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
12.136	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
11.656	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
11.443	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
11.017	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
10.920	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
10.770	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
10.611	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
8.776	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
8.752	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
8.382	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
8.357	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.343	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
7.936	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
7.562	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.382	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
6.312	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
6.266	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
6.114	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.678	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
5.289	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
5.118	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
3.594	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
3.584	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
3.489	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
3.310	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
3.292	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
3.244	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
3.193	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
2.897	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
2.820	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
2.527	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
2.477	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
2.452	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
2.228	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
2.147	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
1.901	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
1.740	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
1.578	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
1.569	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
1.475	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
1.432	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
1.348	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
1.343	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
1.342	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
1.336	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.327	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
1.310	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
1.269	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
1.013	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
0.768	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
0.207	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
0.171	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.108	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-4.652	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-10.078	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-17.197	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-19.446	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-73.311	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary