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User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

2.906	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
121.020	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
24.365	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
20.865	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
18.325	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
17.308	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
17.029	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
11.215	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
10.196	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
9.082	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
8.793	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
8.716	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
8.363	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
7.330	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
7.097	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
7.091	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
6.795	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
6.564	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
6.484	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
5.872	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
5.730	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
5.620	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
5.524	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
5.430	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
5.194	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
4.724	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
4.186	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
3.872	According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”?	Continuous
3.624	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
3.459	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.120	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
3.118	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
3.031	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
2.555	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
2.513	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
2.504	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
2.487	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
2.337	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
2.199	What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?	Continuous
1.531	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
1.235	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
1.101	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
1.071	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
0.887	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.847	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
0.786	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
0.444	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.361	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
0.351	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
0.277	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
0.226	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
0.156	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
0.042	For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.031	How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?	Continuous
-0.019	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-0.425	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-0.471	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-0.809	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.918	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-1.039	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
-1.115	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.782	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
-1.787	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-1.819	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
-2.101	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-3.262	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
-3.504	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
-4.977	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
-5.982	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-7.779	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-7.868	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
-10.208	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
-10.829	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-11.130	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-12.494	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-21.004	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
-27.514	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
-40.506	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary