galen

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.969		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
82.210	92.7%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
64.294	68.5%	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
61.293	80.7%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
60.839	98.7%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
56.819	99.3%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
55.296	96.7%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
48.252	98.3%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
44.946	99.3%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
44.882	99.9%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
44.879	93.8%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
44.286	99.7%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
44.123	99.9%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
43.211	99.6%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
38.757	60.9%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
37.484	83.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
35.906	59.0%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
34.714	100.0%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
34.347	37.4%	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
32.472	94.8%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
30.696	99.7%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
29.991	99.9%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
27.786	95.2%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
27.556	89.3%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
27.480	51.1%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
26.964	100.0%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
26.692	88.5%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
26.388	99.6%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
26.356	99.1%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
25.799	99.5%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
25.639	99.8%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
25.153	82.7%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
24.955	89.2%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
24.394	66.1%	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
23.971	66.6%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
23.744	95.5%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
23.654	98.8%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
23.595	93.5%	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
23.545	98.7%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
23.025	100.0%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
22.848	94.8%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
22.653	99.1%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
22.267	76.5%	What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?	Continuous
22.226	96.2%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
21.867	98.4%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
21.463	99.7%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
21.168	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
21.013	74.7%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
21.002	99.8%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
20.930	91.7%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
20.642	67.6%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
20.442	56.7%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
19.881	99.7%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
19.317	86.2%	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
19.188	99.7%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
19.122	99.5%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
18.640	98.0%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
18.569	100.0%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
18.084	99.9%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
17.794	84.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
17.735	99.9%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
17.608	99.2%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
17.182	85.1%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
17.058	99.8%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
16.826	98.1%	When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?	Continuous
16.371	59.1%	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
16.297	97.1%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
16.199	75.5%	If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?	Binary
16.162	99.3%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
15.893	95.2%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
15.843	100.0%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
15.663	87.7%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
15.597	95.0%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
15.238	87.6%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
15.170	66.3%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
15.164	99.9%	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
15.149	96.6%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
15.097	99.8%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
15.023	72.8%	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
15.012	42.7%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
14.894	90.0%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
14.701	60.9%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
14.509	92.2%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
14.481	79.3%	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
14.460	99.9%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
14.401	99.8%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
14.396	99.9%	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
14.388	64.8%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.243	100.0%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
14.190	99.9%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
13.959	96.2%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
13.743	99.1%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
13.468	99.5%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
13.401	46.2%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
13.305	99.6%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
13.182	98.8%	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
13.002	99.8%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
12.886	59.1%	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
12.707	96.0%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
12.647	99.0%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
12.585	99.9%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
12.526	40.3%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
12.510	99.9%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
12.245	95.6%	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	Continuous
12.151	85.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
12.096	46.5%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
12.056	99.6%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
11.918	99.7%	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
11.905	85.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
11.862	99.9%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
11.801	20.8%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
11.299	98.4%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
10.811	98.1%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
10.763	99.3%	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
10.677	99.9%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
10.558	99.8%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
10.386	99.4%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
10.276	99.6%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
10.272	100.0%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
10.267	84.6%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
10.060	100.0%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
10.046	60.9%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
10.011	99.6%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
9.710	97.6%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
9.517	96.6%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
9.490	100.0%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
9.339	67.5%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
9.221	21.0%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
9.216	60.4%	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
9.174	99.8%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
9.140	62.2%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
9.042	96.5%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
8.972	99.6%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
8.958	60.9%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
8.957	56.0%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
8.824	74.3%	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
8.823	100.0%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
8.794	91.2%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
8.789	43.3%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
8.787	99.8%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
8.782	99.9%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
8.752	98.1%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
8.725	99.8%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
8.622	100.0%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
8.486	53.4%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
8.450	99.9%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
8.341	94.4%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
8.209	99.8%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
8.173	99.8%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
8.111	95.8%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
8.105	96.8%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
8.102	56.4%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
8.012	100.0%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
7.973	100.0%	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
7.901	57.4%	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
7.892	98.0%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
7.858	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Conservative)	Binary
7.836	99.7%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.807	99.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.729	99.9%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.673	41.5%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.640	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
7.633	99.8%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
7.532	100.0%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
7.343	96.4%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
7.282	99.7%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
7.033	100.0%	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
6.894	99.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
6.886	99.9%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
6.805	95.2%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
6.796	63.5%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
6.782	100.0%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
6.750	98.5%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
6.702	99.4%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
6.666	24.4%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
6.662	99.6%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
6.523	99.9%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
6.515	97.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
6.490	99.9%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
6.485	99.9%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
6.450	99.7%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
6.395	23.7%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
6.361	94.2%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
6.295	26.5%	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
6.233	99.5%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.221	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.140	100.0%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
6.092	97.4%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
6.043	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
6.040	11.4%	What will be the share of people using the internet in Africa in 2025?	Continuous
5.989	94.8%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
5.945	99.9%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
5.927	24.6%	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
5.897	97.6%	Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?	Binary
5.824	51.8%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
5.775	97.3%	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
5.716	100.0%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
5.692	55.2%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
5.673	99.7%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
5.662	99.2%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
5.661	98.5%	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
5.611	99.8%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
5.610	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
5.609	55.9%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
5.496	100.0%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
5.496	64.4%	Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?	Binary
5.465	86.3%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
5.333	55.3%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
5.267	96.2%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
5.164	99.5%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
5.138	99.9%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
5.087	98.0%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
4.979	99.9%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
4.971	99.9%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
4.969	96.2%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
4.929	71.6%	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
4.759	97.1%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
4.754	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
4.754	99.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.729	17.9%	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
4.695	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Labour)	Binary
4.684	100.0%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
4.660	96.1%	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
4.633	59.1%	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
4.480	19.9%	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
4.444	95.5%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
4.425	100.0%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
4.421	27.4%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
4.418	99.9%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.252	99.8%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
4.215	99.6%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
4.207	69.7%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.189	99.8%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.179	60.9%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
4.130	99.7%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
4.099	99.8%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
4.067	98.5%	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
4.040	99.0%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
3.996	99.3%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
3.957	84.9%	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
3.930	60.6%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
3.893	99.8%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
3.881	59.1%	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
3.782	92.2%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
3.771	47.7%	Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026)	Binary
3.718	56.4%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
3.611	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress)	Binary
3.558	40.6%	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
3.453	88.7%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
3.413	98.2%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
3.344	25.9%	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
3.324	98.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
3.307	59.1%	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
3.283	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.270	99.6%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
3.156	99.8%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
3.115	66.5%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
3.039	99.7%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
3.023	96.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
2.991	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
2.970	99.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.952	99.9%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
2.899	66.6%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
2.895	100.0%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
2.870	90.9%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.842	95.8%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
2.724	19.5%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
2.691	20.2%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
2.631	99.7%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.587	95.5%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
2.550	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.546	97.7%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
2.522	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
2.520	85.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
2.418	52.8%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
2.406	53.2%	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
2.388	85.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
2.322	60.9%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
2.272	99.8%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
2.270	99.9%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
2.133	53.9%	Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?	Binary
2.065	59.7%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
2.060	44.9%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
2.001	30.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
1.937	44.6%	Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?	Binary
1.894	63.4%	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
1.816	99.7%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
1.803	30.3%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
1.783	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.762	28.6%	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
1.750	5.2%	Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?	Binary
1.713	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Centre)	Binary
1.713	22.6%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
1.674	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.620	99.7%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.603	39.7%	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
1.590	10.1%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
1.535	50.0%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
1.462	85.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.462	71.5%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.433	99.8%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
1.424	98.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
1.366	79.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
1.345	14.8%	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2025)	Continuous
1.322	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.263	63.0%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
1.253	65.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.244	51.6%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
1.224	99.5%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
1.211	30.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
1.200	99.7%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
1.185	4.0%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
1.100	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.084	60.6%	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
1.078	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Red Party)	Binary
1.069	7.7%	When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price?	Continuous
1.060	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)	Binary
1.038	99.7%	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
1.030	89.9%	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.018	97.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.998	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.998	34.2%	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.984	99.7%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.982	8.6%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
0.979	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.976	67.1%	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
0.962	85.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.909	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
0.873	5.5%	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.842	46.5%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.820	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.777	9.6%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
0.771	99.5%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
0.766	5.5%	What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025?	Continuous
0.741	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.737	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.722	80.9%	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
0.707	65.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.700	47.6%	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
0.655	30.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
0.651	30.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
0.632	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.620	46.5%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
0.611	93.9%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
0.556	99.3%	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
0.521	60.9%	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
0.474	97.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
0.454	65.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.429	62.2%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
0.395	3.6%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
0.384	89.4%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
0.362	46.5%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
0.340	2.3%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.324	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.273	46.5%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.269	97.5%	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
0.260	99.8%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
0.251	4.3%	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.248	30.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
0.144	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Christian Democratic)	Binary
0.129	30.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
0.123	56.4%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.113	70.9%	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2025)	Binary
0.108	2.3%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.041	46.5%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
0.037	1.1%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.032	56.4%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
0.002	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Green)	Binary
0.000	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)	Binary
-0.019	97.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
-0.020	68.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Socialist Left)	Binary
-0.062	0.5%	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
-0.063	56.4%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
-0.064	49.0%	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
-0.068	99.7%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-0.100	60.3%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
-0.222	99.5%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-0.316	99.8%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
-0.338	46.4%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
-0.496	6.8%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-0.600	79.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
-0.634	99.8%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-0.646	53.4%	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
-0.740	19.9%	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-0.780	99.1%	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
-0.782	24.1%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-0.923	98.9%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
-1.401	56.4%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
-1.443	99.1%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-1.492	79.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
-1.609	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
-1.842	99.9%	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
-1.954	97.1%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
-1.990	95.2%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-2.125	96.2%	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
-2.430	100.0%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
-3.039	97.8%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
-3.044	97.1%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-3.050	93.5%	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
-3.213	93.6%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
-3.286	38.7%	What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025?	Continuous
-3.378	99.0%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-3.657	97.2%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-3.802	99.5%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-4.087	79.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
-4.352	79.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
-4.698	91.6%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-4.850	98.8%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-5.102	44.8%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-6.311	98.5%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
-6.496	99.8%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-7.083	92.8%	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
-9.228	78.7%	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
-10.674	95.5%	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
-12.209	97.9%	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
-12.979	84.8%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
-13.083	98.3%	How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025?	Continuous
-13.890	99.4%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-14.599	99.4%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-14.975	99.0%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-16.137	79.3%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
-20.655	85.3%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-21.545	98.6%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-23.467	99.2%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
-26.913	84.4%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
-29.079	97.1%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-34.407	99.3%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
-40.447	94.0%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-42.099	99.5%	If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025?	Continuous
-57.503	96.6%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-87.582	99.1%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous