nostramus

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.459	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
35.581	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
26.165	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
24.012	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
22.942	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
21.931	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
19.983	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
14.150	How many of Virginia’s four-year public institutions will require that students get a COVID vaccine for the 2021-2022 academic year?	Continuous
10.941	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
10.475	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
9.857	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
9.782	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
9.373	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
9.235	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
9.196	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
9.027	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
8.629	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
8.282	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
8.224	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
7.961	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.165	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
7.125	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
7.044	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
7.000	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
6.667	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.662	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
5.657	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
5.574	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
5.552	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
5.540	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
5.444	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
5.405	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
5.394	Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
5.134	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.908	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
4.756	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
4.697	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
4.391	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in June 2021?	Continuous
4.374	What will be the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 20 June - 03 July 2021?	Continuous
4.372	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
3.967	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
3.771	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
3.433	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
3.262	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
3.223	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
3.203	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
3.176	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
3.032	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
2.948	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
2.924	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
2.734	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
2.615	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
2.496	Will Pedro Castillo win the second round of the Peru 2021 presidential election?	Binary
2.414	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
2.407	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
2.253	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
2.224	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
2.168	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
1.925	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
1.884	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
1.872	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
1.734	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
1.691	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
1.631	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
1.588	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
1.416	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
1.341	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
1.326	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
1.224	Will a new statewide indoor mask mandate for schools be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021?	Binary
1.091	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
1.088	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
1.086	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
1.012	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
0.998	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
0.982	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
0.977	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
0.893	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
0.877	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
0.861	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
0.802	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
0.766	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
0.748	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
0.717	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
0.622	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
0.566	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
0.520	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?	Continuous
0.517	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
0.488	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
0.473	What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?	Continuous
0.462	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
0.453	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.452	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
0.318	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	Continuous
0.245	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
0.226	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-06-30?	Continuous
0.226	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
0.205	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
0.197	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
0.196	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
0.172	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
0.139	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
0.131	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
0.117	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
0.084	How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.024	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
0.020	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
0.013	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.011	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
-0.052	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
-0.193	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-0.404	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
-0.575	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-06-27 and ending on 2021-07-03 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-0.640	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.819	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
-0.883	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-1.535	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
-2.292	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-2.326	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-2.713	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-3.572	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-3.886	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
-4.409	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-6.096	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
-7.336	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-10.631	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous