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User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.19	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
55.308	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
45.390	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
41.557	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
38.687	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
38.554	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
29.557	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
26.983	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?	Continuous
24.958	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
21.840	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
21.743	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
20.739	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
15.391	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
13.102	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
12.437	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
11.456	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
10.598	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
9.644	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
9.643	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
8.401	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
8.343	Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?	Binary
8.141	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
8.105	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
8.027	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
7.812	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
7.297	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
6.897	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
6.695	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
6.657	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
6.527	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
6.310	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
5.719	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
5.593	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
5.585	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
5.417	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
5.402	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
5.361	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
5.030	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?	Continuous
4.964	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
4.844	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
4.809	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
4.531	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
4.440	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
4.438	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
4.370	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?	Continuous
4.129	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
3.539	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
3.456	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
3.382	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
3.125	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
2.893	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
2.860	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
2.625	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
2.511	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
2.508	For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
2.334	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
2.278	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?	Continuous
2.002	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
1.839	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
1.577	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
1.204	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
0.927	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
0.771	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.681	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
0.650	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
0.605	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
0.521	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.373	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
0.232	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.053	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
-0.033	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
-0.814	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?	Continuous
-0.862	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?	Continuous
-0.867	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
-1.230	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-1.395	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-1.406	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
-1.546	What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?	Continuous
-2.126	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-2.240	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
-2.341	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-2.884	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
-2.905	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-3.678	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
-3.965	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
-3.966	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-4.200	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-4.315	What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?	Continuous
-4.620	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
-4.657	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
-5.164	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?	Continuous
-6.240	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-6.373	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
-8.055	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-8.414	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
-11.536	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
-13.196	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
-15.929	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
-16.807	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
-17.356	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
-18.174	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
-18.732	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-23.096	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-33.372	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-70.149	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous