will_aldred

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.508	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.470	When will the OSHA vaccine-or-test emergency temporary standard for private employers with 100+ employees take effect?	Continuous
73.426	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 14 January 2022?	Continuous
44.606	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
38.585	When will COVID booster doses be available to all adults in the UK?	Continuous
34.442	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
32.539	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
23.871	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
23.863	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
20.572	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
17.461	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
17.131	Will the Fed raise the RRR this year?	Binary
14.378	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
14.304	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
14.138	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
12.117	What will be the percentage of the population in Virginia indicating they are "vaccine accepting" on 14 January 2022?	Continuous
11.993	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
10.142	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
9.941	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
9.872	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
8.569	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
8.488	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
7.733	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
7.581	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
7.096	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
6.968	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
6.938	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
6.863	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
6.253	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
6.198	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
6.178	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
6.140	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
5.821	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?	Continuous
5.345	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
4.763	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
4.710	Will the Fed announce a slow-down in bond purchases from the current $120 billion per month before Jan. 1, 2022?	Binary
4.033	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
3.898	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
3.395	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
2.851	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
2.760	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021?	Continuous
2.609	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
2.311	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
2.214	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
2.129	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
2.116	What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game?	Continuous
2.045	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
1.986	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.915	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
1.908	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
1.890	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
1.748	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
1.734	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
1.719	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?	Continuous
1.702	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
1.645	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
1.586	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
1.543	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
1.367	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
1.337	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
1.314	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
1.304	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
1.142	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
0.966	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
0.925	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
0.850	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
0.741	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.735	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
0.593	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
0.507	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.493	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
0.345	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
0.318	In the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election, what will be the percentage difference of the vote for McAuliffe over Youngkin?	Continuous
0.306	In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?	Binary
0.189	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
0.164	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.123	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
0.118	Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?	Binary
0.089	Will the Trade Signal tournament prize pool increase as a result of trading?	Binary
0.063	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.036	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.019	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
-0.065	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-0.126	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-0.218	How many emoji related court cases in 2021?	Continuous
-0.323	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
-0.660	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
-0.856	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.180	What percentage of Virginia’s population will have received a booster dose as of 4 January 2022?	Continuous
-1.282	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous
-1.404	[Short-fuse] Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-1.475	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-2.511	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-2.512	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?	Continuous
-3.400	When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia?	Continuous
-3.980	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.042	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Australia by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-8.128	Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?	Binary
-9.267	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-10.498	Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-13.941	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-16.201	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
-17.703	When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-30.187	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?	Binary
-86.487	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous