| 84.770 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
| 47.717 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
| 45.396 | How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024? | Continuous |
| 39.506 | How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.656 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
| 36.307 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
| 35.781 | How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023? | Continuous |
| 35.777 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
| 33.157 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 28.395 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
| 28.377 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
| 27.042 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
| 26.600 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.525 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
| 25.552 | How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024? | Continuous |
| 25.202 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
| 24.871 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
| 21.173 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
| 21.056 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
| 20.071 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 18.027 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 17.935 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.075 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.819 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 15.812 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.298 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
| 14.997 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
| 14.798 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 14.743 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.848 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
| 13.835 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
| 13.674 | What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.371 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.371 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 12.575 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 12.091 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.049 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
| 11.624 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
| 11.565 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
| 11.451 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 11.403 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| 11.190 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 10.947 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 10.583 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
| 10.570 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.483 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
| 10.416 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.392 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
| 10.315 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
| 10.310 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.042 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 8.791 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 8.721 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.414 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
| 8.307 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.101 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 8.038 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
| 7.777 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
| 7.773 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 7.624 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.461 | How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024? | Continuous |
| 7.368 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
| 7.307 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
| 7.152 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.990 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
| 6.690 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 6.644 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
| 6.352 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
| 6.108 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
| 5.859 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.448 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
| 5.403 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.279 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
| 5.269 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.090 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
| 4.957 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 4.955 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
| 4.933 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.873 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
| 4.624 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
| 4.431 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 4.209 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
| 4.130 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
| 4.058 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 3.987 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.932 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
| 3.914 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.870 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
| 3.773 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
| 3.658 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 3.656 | What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.575 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
| 3.549 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
| 3.368 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 3.360 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.259 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.255 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.228 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
| 3.215 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
| 3.186 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 3.134 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.966 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.894 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
| 2.624 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
| 2.619 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.577 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.493 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
| 2.388 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.306 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
| 1.999 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
| 1.989 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.987 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
| 1.944 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 1.849 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
| 1.837 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
| 1.825 | How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
| 1.816 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
| 1.700 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
| 1.371 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
| 1.089 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
| 0.953 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.789 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
| 0.568 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
| 0.436 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 0.365 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.314 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 0.305 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
| 0.210 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
| 0.207 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
| 0.194 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
| 0.167 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 0.135 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 0.102 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
| 0.059 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.030 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
| -0.065 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -0.363 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| -0.695 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| -0.997 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
| -1.028 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| -1.039 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| -1.072 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.655 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| -1.736 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| -2.034 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -2.145 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -2.644 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
| -4.817 | What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023? | Continuous |
| -5.109 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
| -5.282 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
| -5.369 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| -5.536 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
| -5.601 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
| -6.065 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
| -6.101 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
| -6.173 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
| -7.561 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
| -7.649 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
| -11.909 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| -13.127 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
| -13.844 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| -14.487 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
| -17.905 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -18.561 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
| -19.050 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| -20.565 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
| -21.616 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| -24.621 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
| -35.435 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
| -43.694 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
| -72.129 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |