rednamlooc

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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18.29		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
96.192	99.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
93.567	92.7%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
88.955	99.4%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
87.433	99.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
79.112	97.6%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
71.964	75.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
71.531	79.5%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
68.784	87.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
67.211	92.3%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
63.259	96.2%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
62.914	99.2%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
62.745	84.5%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
62.222	98.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
60.045	89.4%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
59.759	60.2%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
56.713	81.4%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
56.053	55.1%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
53.351	93.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
48.810	89.7%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
45.323	66.2%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
45.041	99.4%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
40.834	96.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
39.468	71.7%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
38.690	92.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
37.177	98.0%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
36.560	97.2%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
33.366	97.4%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
33.143	68.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
33.101	73.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
32.860	71.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
32.850	75.5%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
32.414	92.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
32.278	49.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
29.885	71.1%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
28.718	92.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
28.675	99.0%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.597	84.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
28.251	70.8%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
27.130	88.5%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
26.920	98.2%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
25.651	56.3%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
25.615	71.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
24.638	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
20.272	99.7%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
20.136	66.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
18.791	28.7%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
18.303	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
18.142	66.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
17.288	76.5%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
15.827	71.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
14.258	66.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
12.476	99.1%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
11.973	24.1%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
11.621	49.4%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
11.227	51.5%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
11.149	98.7%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
10.996	47.5%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
10.801	98.7%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
10.391	31.0%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
9.009	48.8%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
8.943	55.8%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
8.378	89.3%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
8.173	14.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
8.148	26.5%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
7.908	45.2%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
7.329	71.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
7.053	31.2%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
7.015	12.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
6.353	44.7%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
5.888	65.6%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
5.220	27.1%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
5.113	96.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
4.773	29.2%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
4.708	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
3.969	84.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
2.870	9.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
2.725	9.3%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
1.880	99.7%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
1.229	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
1.208	7.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
1.161	9.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
1.111	9.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
0.757	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
0.275	9.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
0.160	82.7%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-0.166	9.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
-0.977	4.5%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-1.720	96.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-2.147	71.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
-3.034	75.3%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
-4.177	66.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
-4.364	84.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-4.426	94.1%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
-4.514	98.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-4.531	18.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-4.542	10.3%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-5.652	7.8%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-6.892	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-8.625	66.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-11.102	22.9%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-11.256	71.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-11.755	77.6%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
-12.461	50.8%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-13.429	50.8%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-14.024	73.6%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-15.302	96.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-15.306	49.1%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-15.686	87.8%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-20.155	78.2%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-22.609	95.2%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
-24.836	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-26.374	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-29.876	68.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-38.366	77.0%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-42.150	98.6%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-46.901	42.9%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-50.454	98.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-55.305	66.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-63.895	71.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-70.250	71.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
-91.652	90.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-110.178	90.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary