rednamlooc

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

13.93		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
108.905	99.9%	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
96.192	99.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
93.767	96.9%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
93.567	92.7%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
90.752	81.1%	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
90.548	96.6%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
88.955	99.4%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
87.433	99.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
79.624	90.2%	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
79.112	97.6%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
74.795	96.9%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
72.525	97.4%	Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?	Binary
71.964	75.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
71.531	79.5%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
68.784	87.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
67.211	92.3%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
63.259	96.2%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
62.914	99.2%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
62.851	92.9%	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
62.745	84.5%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
62.222	98.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
60.045	89.4%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
59.759	60.2%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
59.663	83.9%	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
57.963	97.0%	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
56.713	81.4%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
56.053	55.1%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
55.444	99.9%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.323	99.9%	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
53.351	93.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
48.810	89.7%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
47.997	96.6%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
45.323	66.2%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
45.041	99.4%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
44.335	98.6%	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
44.005	95.5%	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
43.925	89.5%	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
42.257	95.8%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
40.834	96.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
39.468	71.7%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
38.690	92.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
37.177	98.0%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
37.126	96.9%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
36.829	99.0%	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
36.645	81.0%	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
36.560	97.2%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
35.053	66.7%	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
33.434	87.6%	Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?	Binary
33.366	97.4%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
33.143	68.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
33.101	73.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
32.860	71.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
32.850	75.5%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
32.414	92.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
32.278	49.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
31.089	72.6%	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
30.802	96.4%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
30.333	60.0%	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
29.885	71.1%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
29.283	96.9%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
28.718	92.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
28.675	99.0%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.597	84.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
28.344	97.8%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
28.251	70.8%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
28.138	93.4%	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
27.409	85.0%	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
27.379	96.9%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
27.206	92.8%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
27.130	88.5%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
26.920	98.2%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
26.588	54.8%	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
26.313	96.9%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
26.037	90.4%	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
25.651	56.3%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
25.615	71.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
24.765	95.6%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
24.638	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
24.124	99.6%	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
24.102	98.6%	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
23.831	63.6%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
23.731	49.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
23.380	97.1%	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
23.305	84.0%	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
23.287	96.8%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
22.919	83.2%	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
22.860	95.1%	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
22.738	49.5%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
22.153	30.9%	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
20.272	99.7%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
20.212	44.5%	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
20.136	66.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
19.613	57.6%	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
19.401	96.9%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
19.276	36.5%	When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Winners announced!)	Continuous
19.000	99.9%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
18.791	28.7%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
18.303	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
18.142	66.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
18.108	95.2%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
18.092	99.9%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
17.769	93.6%	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
17.520	79.9%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
17.288	76.5%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
16.970	80.9%	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
16.807	96.9%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
16.455	98.0%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
15.855	91.0%	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
15.827	71.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
15.790	95.2%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
15.503	63.0%	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
15.363	63.6%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
15.310	67.1%	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
15.005	81.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
14.646	79.9%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
14.510	79.9%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
14.356	95.2%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
14.258	66.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
13.092	96.3%	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
12.769	84.4%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
12.571	93.6%	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
12.476	99.1%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
11.973	24.1%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
11.621	49.4%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
11.227	51.5%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
11.157	81.5%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
11.149	98.7%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
10.996	47.5%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
10.833	90.2%	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
10.801	98.7%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
10.636	89.1%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
10.391	31.0%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
10.112	79.9%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
10.043	84.3%	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
9.996	92.9%	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
9.325	84.4%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
9.009	48.8%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
8.943	55.8%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
8.887	84.4%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
8.483	55.6%	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
8.378	89.3%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
8.349	11.7%	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
8.180	87.6%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
8.173	14.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
8.148	26.5%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
8.123	95.3%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
7.985	99.9%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
7.908	45.2%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
7.525	96.9%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
7.329	71.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
7.217	15.0%	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
7.053	31.2%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
7.015	12.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
6.372	51.7%	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
6.353	44.7%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
6.262	89.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)	Binary
6.165	42.8%	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
5.937	87.5%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
5.888	65.6%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
5.702	84.4%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
5.573	87.0%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
5.535	33.2%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
5.305	63.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
5.278	10.5%	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
5.220	27.1%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
5.118	87.1%	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
5.113	96.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
4.773	29.2%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
4.708	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
4.635	44.0%	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
4.489	28.3%	Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?	Binary
4.331	54.1%	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
3.969	84.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
3.766	87.2%	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
3.692	22.9%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
3.513	66.5%	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
2.870	9.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
2.725	9.3%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
2.470	90.7%	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
2.408	97.2%	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
1.880	99.7%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
1.554	84.4%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
1.229	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
1.208	7.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
1.161	9.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
1.111	9.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
0.757	96.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
0.597	2.1%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
0.564	64.5%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
0.518	84.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
0.297	0.5%	How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.275	9.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
0.160	82.7%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
0.107	99.2%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
0.030	87.5%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
0.005	87.5%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
-0.166	9.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
-0.941	50.3%	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
-0.977	4.5%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-1.178	64.5%	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
-1.327	59.9%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)	Binary
-1.720	96.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-2.061	79.9%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-2.147	71.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
-2.197	96.9%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-2.621	53.5%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
-3.034	75.3%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
-3.567	24.7%	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
-3.753	69.9%	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
-3.764	94.1%	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
-4.177	66.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
-4.364	84.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-4.426	94.1%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
-4.514	98.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-4.531	18.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-4.542	10.3%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-4.547	64.5%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
-5.470	97.7%	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-5.652	7.8%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-6.892	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-6.959	94.7%	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
-7.165	18.1%	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
-7.843	69.7%	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
-8.071	99.1%	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
-8.625	66.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-10.732	63.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-11.056	79.1%	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
-11.102	22.9%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-11.256	71.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-11.755	77.6%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
-12.461	50.8%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-13.429	50.8%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-14.024	73.6%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-15.202	91.1%	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
-15.302	96.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-15.306	49.1%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-15.686	87.8%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-16.039	81.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
-18.039	95.3%	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-18.493	94.2%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
-20.155	78.2%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-22.609	95.2%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
-23.561	79.8%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-23.848	63.2%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)	Binary
-24.836	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-25.044	97.0%	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-25.602	80.5%	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
-26.374	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-28.348	79.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-28.892	79.8%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-29.876	68.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-34.196	84.4%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
-34.647	98.1%	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
-37.909	96.8%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
-38.366	77.0%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-42.150	98.6%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-44.259	84.4%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
-44.529	99.2%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
-44.709	95.2%	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
-46.901	42.9%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-50.454	98.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-55.305	66.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-63.895	71.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-70.250	71.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
-79.145	40.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-91.652	90.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-110.178	90.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-154.440	87.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-250.108	86.4%	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
-261.458	81.5%	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous