115.396 | 94.9% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2) | Binary |
102.934 | 99.7% | Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025? | Binary |
91.665 | 57.4% | How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034? | Continuous |
89.581 | 69.6% | What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
84.460 | 83.8% | What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025? | Continuous |
82.946 | 60.8% | What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
80.907 | 73.2% | Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025? | Binary |
66.180 | 99.9% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
63.484 | 98.6% | Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025? | Binary |
63.411 | 53.6% | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | Continuous |
62.368 | 57.4% | How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034? | Continuous |
62.214 | 81.7% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9) | Continuous |
61.968 | 99.6% | How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
61.851 | 99.0% | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
59.074 | 90.9% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25) | Binary |
55.507 | 96.3% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
53.365 | 95.2% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2) | Binary |
51.945 | 99.9% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27) | Continuous |
51.034 | 69.7% | Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25? | Binary |
50.266 | 71.6% | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN) | Continuous |
48.586 | 71.7% | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD) | Continuous |
47.541 | 63.5% | What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025? | Continuous |
46.636 | 99.9% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27) | Binary |
45.942 | 97.4% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
45.193 | 96.7% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
44.001 | 98.7% | What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025? | Continuous |
43.302 | 99.9% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
42.030 | 99.9% | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
41.995 | 99.8% | Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025? | Binary |
41.420 | 94.4% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
41.256 | 91.0% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
41.114 | 52.5% | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? | Binary |
40.388 | 95.8% | What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Continuous |
39.503 | 99.9% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27) | Binary |
39.474 | 99.9% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
39.417 | 49.5% | Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
39.358 | 99.6% | Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025? | Binary |
38.978 | 99.9% | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
38.713 | 99.9% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20) | Continuous |
38.621 | 99.2% | Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
38.589 | 75.3% | Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025? | Binary |
38.442 | 91.0% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
38.096 | 93.5% | Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup? | Binary |
37.441 | 98.1% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA) | Continuous |
37.308 | 98.2% | How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025? | Multiple Choice |
35.695 | 100.0% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
35.691 | 95.0% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025) | Binary |
35.665 | 64.1% | What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
33.350 | 89.3% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
33.278 | 92.7% | Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025? | Binary |
33.233 | 98.2% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA) | Continuous |
33.204 | 95.0% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
33.126 | 89.3% | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
32.577 | 53.7% | What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
32.396 | 82.4% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6) | Continuous |
32.226 | 82.3% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
32.020 | 98.5% | Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025? | Binary |
30.151 | 100.0% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
30.054 | 93.5% | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
29.876 | 100.0% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
29.454 | 74.8% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30) | Continuous |
29.322 | 63.0% | What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter? | Continuous |
29.011 | 97.3% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
28.960 | 99.7% | Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)? | Multiple Choice |
28.896 | 89.3% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
28.753 | 97.7% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD) | Continuous |
28.201 | 91.0% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
28.101 | 91.1% | Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023? | Binary |
27.655 | 100.0% | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
27.030 | 98.0% | How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025? | Continuous |
26.606 | 97.4% | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
26.585 | 99.8% | Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025? | Binary |
26.474 | 99.9% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
26.467 | 94.1% | [Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025? | Continuous |
26.378 | 97.6% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
26.271 | 91.7% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD) | Binary |
26.110 | 89.5% | How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session? | Continuous |
25.983 | 91.7% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR) | Binary |
25.968 | 39.5% | Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313? | Multiple Choice |
25.283 | 97.2% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
25.170 | 94.5% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
25.108 | 97.5% | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
24.809 | 18.7% | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
24.806 | 89.3% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
24.782 | 67.4% | Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season? | Binary |
24.374 | 91.7% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES) | Binary |
23.829 | 81.7% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
23.673 | 23.7% | What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
23.537 | 81.4% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23) | Continuous |
23.034 | 99.9% | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
22.991 | 99.9% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
22.698 | 82.4% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13) | Continuous |
22.660 | 97.2% | What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025? | Continuous |
22.059 | 96.9% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META) | Continuous |
21.976 | 97.1% | What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025? | Continuous |
21.872 | 99.9% | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
21.762 | 97.3% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
21.196 | 77.2% | Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025? | Binary |
20.228 | 96.4% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
20.189 | 67.4% | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Binary |
20.104 | 98.1% | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses) | Continuous |
20.021 | 91.9% | Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025? | Binary |
19.821 | 96.3% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
19.807 | 95.0% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025) | Binary |
19.664 | 50.3% | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
19.661 | 19.6% | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
19.388 | 83.5% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
19.371 | 20.2% | What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025? | Continuous |
19.287 | 93.6% | Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025? | Binary |
18.980 | 36.9% | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
18.966 | 31.6% | What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)? | Multiple Choice |
18.748 | 100.0% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
18.536 | 94.4% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
18.490 | 99.6% | Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025? | Binary |
18.414 | 89.2% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025) | Binary |
17.681 | 76.0% | Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025? | Binary |
17.673 | 83.4% | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
17.584 | 97.3% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
17.476 | 57.2% | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025) | Continuous |
17.189 | 99.9% | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |
17.110 | 99.9% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
17.040 | 26.0% | What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament? | Multiple Choice |
16.758 | 12.4% | What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025? | Continuous |
16.671 | 98.1% | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin) | Continuous |
16.368 | 82.4% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
16.276 | 100.0% | Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025? | Binary |
16.191 | 83.4% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
16.071 | 55.1% | Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
16.005 | 99.4% | How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025? | Continuous |
15.829 | 35.1% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk) | Binary |
15.682 | 89.2% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025) | Binary |
15.672 | 11.3% | How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
15.579 | 76.0% | What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
15.249 | 81.5% | How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025? | Continuous |
15.178 | 99.0% | Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025? | Binary |
15.124 | 60.6% | Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
15.028 | 89.2% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025) | Binary |
14.853 | 98.9% | Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025? | Binary |
14.425 | 69.7% | Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25? | Binary |
14.092 | 79.7% | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
13.918 | 89.3% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
13.864 | 67.4% | Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections? | Binary |
13.526 | 42.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025) | Continuous |
13.135 | 74.7% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
13.045 | 99.9% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
12.830 | 89.3% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
12.106 | 82.4% | How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025? | Continuous |
11.595 | 99.9% | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
11.472 | 89.3% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
11.163 | 15.9% | Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025? | Binary |
10.873 | 99.9% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27) | Binary |
9.963 | 21.3% | Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
9.960 | 63.7% | Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
9.846 | 83.4% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
9.839 | 93.1% | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
9.763 | 74.6% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
9.717 | 7.6% | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
9.690 | 99.9% | Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025? | Binary |
9.661 | 85.5% | Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025? | Binary |
9.462 | 12.7% | How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
9.375 | 89.3% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
9.223 | 45.8% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
9.007 | 67.1% | Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
8.643 | 14.7% | Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025? | Binary |
8.493 | 5.4% | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights) | Continuous |
8.455 | 100.0% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
8.448 | 99.4% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (MSTR) | Binary |
8.340 | 100.0% | Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025? | Binary |
8.318 | 100.0% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
8.278 | 97.5% | What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025? | Continuous |
8.057 | 16.9% | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
7.738 | 62.3% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD) | Binary |
7.671 | 83.4% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
7.525 | 83.4% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
7.334 | 98.2% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
7.194 | 31.0% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
6.910 | 63.7% | Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
6.894 | 98.6% | Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025? | Binary |
6.323 | 10.1% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025? | Continuous |
6.140 | 38.9% | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
5.835 | 5.8% | What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
5.655 | 99.0% | Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion? | Binary |
5.587 | 50.6% | How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025? | Continuous |
5.270 | 100.0% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
5.214 | 23.7% | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
5.168 | 81.4% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
5.051 | 98.5% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk) | Binary |
4.958 | 99.6% | Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election? | Multiple Choice |
4.888 | 100.0% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
4.759 | 49.2% | Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025? | Binary |
4.699 | 98.5% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad) | Binary |
4.657 | 13.1% | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025) | Continuous |
4.538 | 100.0% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10) | Continuous |
4.524 | 5.8% | How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025? | Continuous |
4.343 | 8.1% | What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)? | Continuous |
3.914 | 6.0% | What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
3.336 | 83.5% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
3.243 | 7.7% | Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026? | Binary |
3.027 | 5.8% | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
2.878 | 67.0% | Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025? | Binary |
2.776 | 99.9% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
2.741 | 19.9% | Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026? | Binary |
2.713 | 12.2% | Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League? | Binary |
2.444 | 99.4% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES) | Binary |
1.956 | 2.9% | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? | Binary |
1.727 | 20.9% | Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025? | Binary |
1.675 | 6.3% | Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025? | Binary |
1.311 | 61.7% | What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025? | Continuous |
0.747 | 85.3% | Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
0.663 | 56.9% | Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government? | Multiple Choice |
0.479 | 40.4% | Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025? | Binary |
0.411 | 4.1% | Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections? | Binary |
0.210 | 31.8% | Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion) | Binary |
0.194 | 97.6% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD) | Continuous |
-0.148 | 0.1% | Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
-0.331 | 1.4% | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-0.438 | 96.9% | Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025? | Binary |
-1.186 | 30.4% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
-1.666 | 74.6% | What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025? | Continuous |
-1.889 | 98.7% | Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
-2.449 | 99.8% | How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025? | Continuous |
-2.575 | 17.7% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN) | Binary |
-3.121 | 100.0% | Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025? | Binary |
-4.082 | 89.2% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025) | Binary |
-4.122 | 99.9% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
-4.552 | 99.7% | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
-4.591 | 99.4% | Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant? | Binary |
-4.797 | 98.5% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka) | Binary |
-4.974 | 100.0% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
-5.244 | 97.3% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
-5.764 | 82.5% | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
-6.021 | 96.8% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
-6.404 | 51.6% | Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation? | Binary |
-6.560 | 100.0% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29) | Continuous |
-6.939 | 45.8% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
-7.282 | 95.8% | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | Binary |
-7.478 | 82.4% | What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024? | Continuous |
-7.739 | 83.4% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26) | Continuous |
-8.691 | 98.2% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
-8.809 | 82.3% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13) | Binary |
-9.316 | 33.5% | When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill? | Multiple Choice |
-9.474 | 99.9% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12) | Continuous |
-10.176 | 82.4% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
-10.361 | 98.2% | Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September? | Binary |
-11.533 | 94.7% | How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend? | Continuous |
-13.969 | 28.7% | Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025? | Binary |
-14.137 | 81.7% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16) | Continuous |
-14.822 | 37.1% | Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025? | Binary |
-16.013 | 40.2% | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
-19.311 | 87.7% | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | Binary |
-20.558 | 98.1% | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue) | Continuous |
-24.101 | 83.5% | What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale? | Continuous |
-32.570 | 99.2% | What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025? | Continuous |
-39.244 | 16.4% | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print)) | Binary |
-41.989 | 95.0% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
-44.813 | 97.4% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
-49.655 | 64.0% | What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
-52.182 | 75.5% | What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025? | Continuous |
-53.157 | 97.0% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META) | Continuous |
-56.072 | 85.8% | How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025? | Continuous |
-61.141 | 50.8% | What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025? | Continuous |
-101.159 | 99.5% | What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025? | Continuous |
-119.590 | 89.6% | On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025? | Continuous |