Russell-viper

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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27.19		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
115.396	94.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
89.581	69.6%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
84.460	83.8%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
82.946	60.8%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
63.411	53.6%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
62.214	81.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
59.074	90.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
55.507	96.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
53.365	95.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
51.034	69.7%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
50.266	71.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
48.586	71.7%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
47.541	63.5%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
41.420	94.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
41.256	91.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
41.114	52.5%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
39.417	49.5%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
38.713	99.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
38.589	75.3%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
38.442	91.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
35.691	95.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
35.665	64.1%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.204	95.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
32.577	53.7%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
32.396	82.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
32.226	82.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
29.454	74.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
29.322	63.0%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
28.201	91.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
25.968	39.5%	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
25.170	94.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
24.809	18.7%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
24.782	67.4%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
23.829	81.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
23.673	23.7%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
23.537	81.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
22.698	82.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
20.189	67.4%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
20.021	91.9%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
19.807	95.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
19.664	50.3%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
19.661	19.6%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.371	20.2%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
18.980	36.9%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
18.536	94.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
17.584	97.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
17.476	57.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
17.040	26.0%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
16.758	12.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
16.368	82.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
16.071	55.1%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
15.672	11.3%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
15.579	76.0%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
15.249	81.5%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
15.124	60.6%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
14.425	69.7%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
14.092	79.7%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
13.864	67.4%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
13.526	42.7%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
13.135	74.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
11.163	15.9%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
9.963	21.3%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
9.763	74.6%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
9.717	7.6%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
9.661	85.5%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
9.462	12.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
9.007	67.1%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
8.643	14.7%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
8.493	5.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
8.057	16.9%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
7.194	31.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
6.323	10.1%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
6.140	38.9%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
5.835	5.8%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
5.587	50.6%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
5.214	23.7%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
5.168	81.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
4.657	13.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
4.524	5.8%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
4.343	8.1%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
3.914	6.0%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.027	5.8%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
2.878	67.0%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
2.713	12.2%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
1.956	2.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
1.727	20.9%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
1.311	61.7%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
0.747	85.3%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.479	40.4%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
0.411	4.1%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
-0.148	0.1%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-0.331	1.4%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-1.186	30.4%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-1.666	74.6%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
-2.575	17.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-5.764	82.5%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
-7.478	82.4%	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
-8.809	82.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-10.176	82.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-13.969	28.7%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-14.137	81.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-14.822	37.1%	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
-19.311	87.7%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
-24.101	83.5%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
-32.570	99.2%	What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025?	Continuous
-39.244	16.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-41.989	95.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-49.655	64.0%	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-52.182	75.5%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-56.072	85.8%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
-61.141	50.8%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous