therealmathisk

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

21.15		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
136.389	99.4%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
134.260	97.2%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
100.572	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
99.496	99.5%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
98.187	99.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
94.023	99.7%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
88.532	99.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
85.670	99.3%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
82.742	76.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
82.284	99.3%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
82.167	99.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
78.963	99.7%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
78.896	93.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
73.188	96.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
69.297	95.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
63.224	65.2%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
61.626	85.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
60.091	99.1%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
59.651	100.0%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
59.511	99.3%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
57.553	99.5%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
54.594	99.5%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
54.448	99.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
50.768	99.0%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
49.287	99.4%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
46.899	93.0%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
46.340	99.2%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
45.863	87.4%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
44.966	98.7%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
44.684	99.7%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
44.553	71.4%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
43.038	99.9%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
42.850	78.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
42.506	99.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
42.046	91.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
41.952	85.3%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
40.528	95.2%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
40.484	93.6%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
39.641	95.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
39.487	89.1%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
39.103	99.4%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
37.291	91.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
36.520	99.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
36.117	98.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
35.056	99.6%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
34.853	77.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
34.781	85.3%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
34.362	93.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
34.245	99.3%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
34.166	89.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
33.987	98.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
33.523	95.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
33.322	95.5%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
32.825	85.3%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
32.224	91.7%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
32.194	95.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
32.189	58.5%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
30.830	88.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
30.767	91.6%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
30.287	95.1%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
30.193	99.2%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
30.185	63.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
30.070	85.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
29.715	77.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
29.456	99.4%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
29.133	93.1%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
28.314	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
28.060	85.7%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.987	95.3%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
27.393	85.3%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
26.858	99.9%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.270	96.3%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
24.562	77.1%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
24.277	94.9%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
24.132	99.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
24.112	99.1%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
24.042	63.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
23.750	99.4%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
23.400	85.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
22.584	93.6%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
21.998	91.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
21.854	77.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
21.674	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
21.507	99.3%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
21.342	99.4%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
21.313	95.5%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
20.954	93.1%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
20.459	63.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
20.112	99.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
20.017	95.2%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
19.758	99.1%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
19.741	53.1%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
19.230	99.3%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
19.110	96.8%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
18.615	89.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
18.474	99.5%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
17.926	95.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
17.898	99.4%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
17.592	99.2%	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
17.443	99.4%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
17.180	85.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
16.833	84.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
16.756	94.9%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
16.744	63.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
16.406	63.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
16.385	91.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
15.434	93.6%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
14.667	99.4%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
14.563	93.6%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
14.376	69.1%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
13.925	57.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
13.646	90.0%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
13.503	93.6%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
12.942	24.1%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
12.929	95.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
12.486	18.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.169	90.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
10.966	21.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
10.135	86.0%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
10.075	78.2%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
9.984	16.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
9.853	99.5%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
9.388	93.6%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
8.410	22.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
8.113	95.5%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
7.876	99.4%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
7.155	42.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
6.245	99.1%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
6.081	56.6%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
5.760	57.2%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
4.840	89.2%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
4.102	97.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
3.791	99.4%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
3.646	95.1%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
2.523	28.9%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
2.400	7.1%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
2.216	92.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
1.341	99.4%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
1.195	7.5%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
0.482	85.3%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
0.471	1.2%	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
0.375	42.2%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
-0.165	9.4%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
-0.343	61.9%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
-0.421	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-1.697	5.2%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-1.890	85.3%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-2.173	99.1%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
-2.589	73.8%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
-2.599	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-3.207	7.0%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-3.346	63.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
-4.526	93.6%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-5.175	99.5%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-5.502	98.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
-5.916	89.8%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-6.229	22.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-7.763	84.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-8.985	97.8%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
-9.258	23.1%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-9.775	8.3%	When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?	Continuous
-10.366	91.1%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-10.930	36.2%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-12.423	87.7%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-14.607	95.5%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-15.385	92.4%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-19.786	70.0%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-19.847	98.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
-21.365	85.4%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-22.462	91.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-48.766	95.2%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-50.287	94.2%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-51.524	95.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-71.024	95.5%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-78.064	99.1%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-108.489	99.1%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-129.632	97.8%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-163.661	39.6%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-227.766	97.5%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-397.287	94.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary