Contests
This page shows the obsolete contests. They were superseded in April 2021 by Tournaments.
| Contest | Start | End | Questions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasting AI Progress — Bayes Prize Leaderboard | Dec 13, 2020 | Apr 16, 2021 | 81 |
| Consensus Forecasting | . | . | . |
| Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament I | Feb 17, 2020 | Jun 17, 2020 | 52 |
| Li Wenliang Tournament 2 | . | . | . |
| Covid-19 Tournament Round 2 | . | . | . |
| Cryptocurrency Prediction Contest | Sep 14, 2017 | Dec 1, 2017 | 24 |
| Forecasting AI Progress — Deep Learning Round | Feb 13, 2021 | Apr 16, 2021 | 30 |
| El Paso Series | . | . | . |
| COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [first tournament] | . | . | . |
| COVID-19 Lightning Round Tournament [second tournament] | . | . | . |
| Foresight 2020 contest | Oct 14, 2019 | Oct 31, 2020 | 13 |
| Forecasting AI Progress — Hill Climbing Round | Jan 13, 2021 | Mar 15, 2021 | 29 |
| Lockdown Tournament | . | . | . |
| Forecasting AI Progress — Maximum Likelihood Round | Dec 9, 2020 | Jun 15, 2021 | 29 |
| Road to recovery | Oct 1, 2020 | Feb 28, 2021 | 16 |
| Salk Tournament | . | . | . |
Forecasting AI Progress
is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to predicting
advances in artificial intelligence.
The Hill Climbing Round is aimed at forecasting key AI questions over timeframes of 6-months and longer timeframes (over 2 years out). Note that the questions that span longer timeframes are not intended to resolve within 6 months. There is a total prize pool of $9,000 for this round alone. Forecasting each of the relevant questions is required to qualify for prizes.
The Hill Climbing Round is aimed at forecasting key AI questions over timeframes of 6-months and longer timeframes (over 2 years out). Note that the questions that span longer timeframes are not intended to resolve within 6 months. There is a total prize pool of $9,000 for this round alone. Forecasting each of the relevant questions is required to qualify for prizes.
| Rank | Player | Points | Questions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PepeS | 714 | 24 |
| 2 | Vang | 660 | 24 |
| 3 | ksipe | 626 | 23 |
| 4 | Jgalt | 598 | 24 |
| 5 | Cory | 590 | 24 |
| 6 | Sergio | 572 | 24 |
| 7 | galen | 530 | 23 |
| 8 | elifland | 524 | 24 |
| 9 | Pablo | 523 | 24 |
| 10 | datscilly | 472 | 24 |
| 11 | pseudo | 466 | 24 |
| 12 | PeterWildeford | 457 | 24 |
| 13 | TedSanders | 400 | 5 |
| 14 | jack | 392 | 23 |
| 15 | qassiov | 364 | 24 |
| 16 | Bob_Jacobs | 330 | 23 |
| 17 | Mati_Roy | 330 | 23 |
| 18 | 2e10e122 | 319 | 24 |
| 19 | Hayes | 296 | 7 |
| 20 | isinlor | 285 | 3 |
| 21 | Jotto | 278 | 23 |
| 22 | mattvdm | 274 | 23 |
| 23 | JAJMLP | 187 | 23 |
| 24 | cos | 182 | 9 |
| 25 | onl | 162 | 23 |
| 26 | TeeJayKay | 159 | 4 |
| 27 | FinanAdamson | 123 | 24 |
| 28 | EvanHarper | 100 | 1 |
| 29 | soeren.mindermann | 79 | 1 |
| 30 | lars3loff | 78 | 1 |
| 31 | Patello | 75 | 1 |
| 32 | Reprisal | 74 | 24 |
| 33 | ghabs | 67 | 1 |
| 34 | tylerjn | 64 | 1 |
| 35 | stecas | 62 | 1 |
| 36 | KlaRo | 53 | 2 |
| 37 | nextbigfuture | 46 | 2 |
| 38 | ItsRyan | 44 | 1 |
| 39 | sbowman | 40 | 2 |
| 40 | MaciekK | 40 | 4 |
| 41 | Maxima | 34 | 1 |
| 42 | devong.tucker | 31 | 1 |
| 43 | HadiKhan | 30 | 1 |
| 44 | WPR | 28 | 1 |
| 45 | nickkees | 28 | 3 |
| 46 | dyoshida | 27 | 1 |
| 47 | NoUsernameSelected | 20 | 1 |
| 48 | CoafOS | 19 | 1 |
| 49 | florin.manolache | 17 | 5 |
| 50 | benjamin.46824682 | 17 | 1 |
| 51 | lalaithion | 16 | 1 |
| 52 | cozy | 11 | 1 |
| 53 | blackcomb | 10 | 1 |
| 54 | Vermillion | 10 | 1 |
| 55 | warrenkrettek | 1 | 1 |
| 56 | schelling42 | 0 | 1 |
| 57 | Takeshi | -1 | 3 |
| 58 | isaacbg227 | -3 | 1 |
| 59 | falk | -9 | 1 |
| 60 | an1lam | -9 | 2 |
| 61 | ahsantarique | -10 | 1 |
| 62 | Mazurkas | -13 | 2 |
| 63 | Nichevo | -14 | 24 |
| 64 | JonathanShi | -14 | 6 |
| 65 | Bubba | -19 | 18 |
| 66 | jwmurdock4 | -20 | 1 |
| 67 | james.jj.barry | -26 | 1 |
| 68 | SimonM | -28 | 24 |
| 69 | RKSingh28 | -30 | 10 |
| 70 | astromen1 | -30 | 8 |
| 71 | jjbalisanyukasmith | -41 | 1 |
| 72 | ameminator | -42 | 1 |
| 73 | koshermcmuffin | -44 | 1 |
| 74 | sergeant1337 | -46 | 10 |
| 75 | MJ | -47 | 1 |
| 76 | moridinamael | -55 | 3 |
| 77 | randallburns | -55 | 2 |
| 78 | Caelestis | -90 | 1 |
| 79 | Grigfall | -93 | 1 |
| 80 | propwash | -112 | 1 |
| 81 | kanki | -115 | 1 |
| 82 | AvrahamEisenberg | -136 | 8 |
| 83 | Zweihander | -188 | 24 |
| 84 | herbie | -188 | 1 |
| 85 | ndrein | -190 | 1 |
| 86 | simfra | -199 | 1 |
| 87 | gsastry | -204 | 1 |
| 88 | houeland | -237 | 9 |
| 89 | JohnBurden | -242 | 1 |
| 90 | feistyguar | -392 | 24 |
| 91 | shahar.avin | -448 | 12 |
| 92 | Bernhard | -573 | 24 |
| 93 | bc219 | -1517 | 23 |
| 94 | BrentR | -2666 | 24 |