Sergio

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

18.22	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
119.663	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
110.562	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
83.504	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
81.530	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
74.389	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
68.403	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
63.224	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
62.674	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
61.831	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
61.076	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
58.930	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
52.902	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
50.946	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
49.689	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
49.485	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
43.225	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
42.164	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
39.930	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
36.686	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
34.397	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
34.206	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
33.989	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
33.531	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
32.261	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
31.784	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
31.118	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
30.615	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
29.794	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
29.347	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
28.872	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.044	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
26.312	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
26.073	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
24.986	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
24.928	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
24.918	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
24.522	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
24.262	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
23.957	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
23.586	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
23.574	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
20.450	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
19.151	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
17.741	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
17.335	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
16.955	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
15.456	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
15.267	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
15.153	What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
15.063	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
14.634	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.584	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
13.855	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.847	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
13.680	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
13.322	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.025	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
12.924	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
12.852	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
12.367	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
12.254	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
12.003	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.993	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
11.889	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.554	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
10.939	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
10.581	What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics?	Continuous
10.508	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
10.357	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
9.846	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
9.531	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
9.529	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
9.197	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
8.679	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
8.675	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
8.668	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
8.412	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
8.383	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
8.219	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
7.971	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.868	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
7.804	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
7.756	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
7.398	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
7.327	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.240	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
7.234	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.949	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.765	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
6.654	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.581	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.551	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
6.316	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
6.111	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
5.964	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
5.781	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.394	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
5.208	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.051	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
4.839	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
4.619	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
4.575	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.863	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
3.815	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.165	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
3.064	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
2.949	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.909	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
2.765	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.668	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.139	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
1.584	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.179	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
1.018	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.967	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
0.735	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
0.651	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
0.199	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-0.047	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
-0.061	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-0.984	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.588	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-5.054	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.175	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
-5.792	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
-11.160	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-13.336	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
-13.665	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti)	Continuous
-16.297	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
-17.543	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-17.946	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary