95.798 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
93.656 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
72.070 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
57.157 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
55.291 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
49.140 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
47.768 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
45.802 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
40.344 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
36.727 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
35.726 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
35.700 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
32.139 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
31.282 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
29.290 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
28.669 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023) | Continuous |
26.997 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
25.808 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
25.235 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
25.143 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
25.103 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
24.501 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
24.429 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
23.798 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
23.368 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
22.680 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
22.378 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.244 | Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft? | Continuous |
21.924 | When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions? | Continuous |
20.230 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
20.194 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
19.576 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
19.405 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
18.235 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
17.762 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
17.617 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
17.199 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.963 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
15.433 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
15.340 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
15.325 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
15.146 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
14.886 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
14.817 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
14.423 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
14.371 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
13.809 | What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022) | Continuous |
13.758 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
13.260 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
12.990 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
12.449 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
11.808 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
11.577 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
11.317 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
11.228 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
11.081 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
10.662 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
10.427 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
10.287 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
10.275 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
9.730 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
9.402 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
9.056 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
9.041 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
8.965 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
8.876 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
8.661 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
8.087 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023) | Continuous |
7.776 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
7.668 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
7.655 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
7.219 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
7.187 | What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2023) | Continuous |
7.119 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
6.980 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
6.978 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
6.922 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
6.903 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
6.829 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
6.804 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
6.744 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
6.412 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
6.315 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
6.308 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
6.300 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
6.261 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
6.178 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
6.108 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
6.041 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
5.966 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
5.957 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
5.931 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
5.842 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.680 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
5.659 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
5.640 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
5.597 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
5.574 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
5.447 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.324 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
5.311 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.258 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
5.212 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
5.179 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
5.112 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
5.080 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
4.842 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
4.801 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
4.800 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
4.500 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
4.437 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
4.365 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
4.364 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
4.350 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
4.253 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
4.222 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
4.210 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
4.207 | What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
4.198 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
4.036 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
3.940 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
3.840 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
3.823 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
3.752 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
3.751 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
3.719 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
3.676 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
3.603 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
3.553 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
3.545 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
3.515 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
3.490 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
3.482 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
3.392 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
3.342 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
3.292 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
3.267 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
3.245 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
3.226 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
3.118 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
3.111 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
3.092 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
3.049 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
2.975 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
2.971 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
2.956 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
2.943 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
2.937 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
2.935 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
2.861 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
2.843 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
2.839 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
2.836 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
2.826 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
2.782 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
2.735 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
2.663 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
2.624 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
2.606 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
2.356 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
2.340 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
2.304 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
2.296 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
2.187 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
2.151 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
2.144 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
2.065 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
2.045 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
1.844 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
1.692 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
1.640 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
1.628 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
1.573 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
1.495 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.476 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
1.224 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.991 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
0.937 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
0.755 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
0.743 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
0.704 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
0.645 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.636 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
0.626 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
0.472 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
0.314 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
0.180 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.149 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
0.139 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
0.120 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
0.116 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
0.078 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
0.056 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
0.043 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
0.025 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
0.024 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
0.023 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
0.022 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.018 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
0.018 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
-0.059 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
-0.188 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
-0.666 | Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? | Binary |
-0.825 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
-1.439 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
-1.941 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
-1.985 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
-2.164 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
-2.303 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
-2.743 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
-3.955 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
-4.001 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
-4.322 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
-4.351 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
-4.713 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
-5.688 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
-6.333 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
-7.800 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
-8.806 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
-9.087 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
-10.701 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-10.828 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
-12.105 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
-13.117 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
-13.534 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
-13.851 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
-14.231 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
-14.307 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
-14.415 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
-14.964 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
-18.250 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
-18.613 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
-21.568 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
-21.818 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
-22.421 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
-22.448 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
-22.577 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
-30.446 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
-48.246 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
-67.962 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
-68.160 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
-88.592 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
-121.211 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-149.730 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |