skmmcj

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.52	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
80.675	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
55.110	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
50.930	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
47.974	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
45.066	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
42.253	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.155	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
35.845	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
35.284	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
34.443	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
33.977	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
32.241	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.214	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
29.354	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
29.192	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
27.519	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.578	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
26.552	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
26.275	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
26.036	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
25.302	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
24.997	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
24.289	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.828	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
22.334	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
21.168	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
21.124	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
20.077	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
19.659	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
19.282	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
18.564	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
17.728	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
17.342	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
16.236	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
16.022	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
15.885	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
15.859	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
15.482	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
14.964	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
13.955	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
13.740	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
13.559	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
13.253	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
12.969	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
12.933	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
12.850	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.832	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
12.661	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
12.384	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
12.173	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
12.090	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
11.574	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
11.469	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
11.331	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
11.141	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
10.989	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
10.775	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
10.455	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
10.312	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
10.285	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.808	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
9.657	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
9.616	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q4)	Continuous
9.496	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
9.326	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
9.325	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
9.319	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
9.254	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
8.817	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
8.756	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
8.513	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
8.457	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
8.402	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
8.023	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
7.930	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
7.842	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
7.694	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
7.691	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.167	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
6.955	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.829	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
6.688	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.594	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
6.450	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.880	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.835	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
5.645	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
5.533	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.020	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
4.987	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
4.956	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
4.521	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.417	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
4.030	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
3.966	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
3.960	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.947	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
3.921	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
3.872	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
3.679	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
3.643	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.631	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
3.498	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.286	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
3.247	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
3.174	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
2.957	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.846	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.776	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
2.689	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23)	Continuous
2.632	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.479	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.450	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
2.265	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.203	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
2.120	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
2.106	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
2.101	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
1.961	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
1.841	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
1.740	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
1.654	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
1.584	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
1.511	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
1.341	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.184	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
1.102	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.033	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.841	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.827	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
0.805	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.592	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.560	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
0.530	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
0.429	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
0.324	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
0.322	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
0.267	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
0.255	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.233	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
0.198	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
0.187	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
0.182	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
0.173	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
0.162	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
0.158	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.072	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.068	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-0.584	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
-0.814	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
-1.519	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
-3.897	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.452	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2)	Continuous
-5.054	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q3)	Continuous
-10.639	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-16.002	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
-28.300	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary