aristophanes

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5661	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.102	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
98.656	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
98.524	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
98.519	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
98.260	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
98.073	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
96.180	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
95.703	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
94.882	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
94.584	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
94.370	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
94.176	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
94.085	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
93.722	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
93.192	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
92.666	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
92.511	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
92.479	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
90.888	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
90.779	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
90.723	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
90.556	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
89.875	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
89.292	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
88.349	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
87.881	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
87.636	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
87.068	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
86.731	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
86.304	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
86.107	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.481	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
84.825	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
84.751	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
84.146	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
82.558	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
82.118	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
82.056	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
81.674	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
80.996	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
80.966	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
80.626	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
80.251	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
78.295	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
75.958	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
74.580	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
73.505	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
72.088	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
71.050	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
68.680	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
67.849	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
67.545	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
65.896	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
65.589	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
65.345	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
65.121	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
64.696	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
63.964	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
63.006	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
62.589	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
59.866	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
58.580	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
58.311	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
58.099	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
57.444	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
56.658	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
54.680	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
53.363	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
49.555	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
48.801	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
48.750	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
48.397	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
46.395	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
46.165	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
45.342	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
40.474	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
37.720	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
36.085	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
35.356	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
35.137	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
32.135	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
30.248	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
27.029	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
26.782	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
26.016	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
25.432	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
24.746	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
24.488	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
24.322	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
22.634	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
21.324	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
18.671	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
18.562	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
17.576	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
15.923	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
15.683	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
15.616	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
14.900	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
14.829	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
14.571	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
12.302	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
11.213	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.067	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
9.469	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
9.340	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
7.418	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
6.366	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
6.141	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
5.591	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
5.348	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
3.908	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.780	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
3.505	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
3.091	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
2.405	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
2.128	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
2.091	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
1.134	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.992	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.987	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.736	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.736	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.736	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.658	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.582	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.444	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
0.118	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.302	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-0.534	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-4.599	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-9.718	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-14.521	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-15.831	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
-26.429	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-38.992	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-41.644	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-79.820	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-84.306	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-91.263	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-129.382	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-347.870	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary