aristophanes

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9617	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
231.245	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
99.192	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
99.066	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
99.027	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
98.445	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
98.444	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
98.401	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
98.347	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
98.347	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
98.347	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
97.811	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
97.677	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
97.581	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
96.829	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
96.481	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
96.209	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
96.208	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
96.208	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
96.208	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
96.208	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
95.625	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
95.510	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
95.355	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
95.316	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
95.140	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
95.039	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
94.934	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
94.853	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
94.853	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
94.555	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
93.893	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
93.677	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
93.407	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
92.328	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
92.030	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
91.675	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
91.581	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
91.262	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
90.272	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
90.219	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
89.719	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
89.174	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
88.961	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
88.268	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
87.823	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
87.286	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
86.270	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
85.849	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
84.696	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
84.329	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
84.153	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
83.895	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
83.895	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
83.895	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
83.765	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
83.679	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
83.454	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
83.070	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
82.952	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
82.734	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
81.698	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
81.664	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
80.600	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
80.395	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
79.996	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
79.139	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
79.031	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
73.496	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
72.246	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
72.144	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
70.801	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
70.325	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
70.062	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
70.062	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
68.707	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
68.707	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
64.449	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
64.422	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
64.396	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
64.396	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
64.195	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
62.845	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
62.845	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
61.262	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
59.732	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
59.592	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
58.863	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
57.985	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
56.980	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
56.133	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
56.133	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
55.152	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
51.767	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
51.011	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
49.646	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
49.286	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
49.286	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
49.192	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
48.642	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
48.641	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
48.641	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
48.641	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
48.641	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
48.641	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
48.641	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
48.637	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
48.292	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
48.287	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
47.918	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
47.822	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
47.397	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
47.218	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
47.188	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
47.188	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
45.729	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
45.667	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
45.641	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
44.834	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
44.191	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
43.799	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
43.270	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
42.802	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
39.925	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
34.777	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
29.819	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
29.019	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
28.786	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
28.242	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
27.700	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
25.144	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
25.137	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
25.132	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
24.297	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
22.920	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
22.900	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
20.805	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
20.630	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
20.555	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
18.196	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
16.336	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
14.905	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
14.084	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
13.672	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
13.122	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
10.540	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
8.461	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
8.355	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
8.211	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
7.963	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
7.545	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
7.431	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
7.327	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
7.324	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
6.581	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
6.156	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
6.035	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
4.171	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
3.407	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
1.618	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
1.069	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.805	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
-	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-0.179	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-0.266	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-1.315	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-1.684	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
-3.439	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
-4.393	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-4.769	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-7.954	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-14.245	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
-14.281	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
-24.222	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-40.516	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-42.219	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-50.969	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-80.186	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-148.356	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary