| 130.881 | What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024? | Continuous |
| 98.336 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.250 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 98.164 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.998 | Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024) | Binary |
| 97.978 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 97.971 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 97.917 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.917 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 97.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 97.375 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.349 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 97.340 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.108 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 96.992 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 96.973 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.936 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 96.936 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 96.631 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 96.614 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.582 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.538 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.456 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 96.429 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 96.399 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 96.394 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.319 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 96.144 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.072 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 95.255 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 95.227 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 94.990 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 94.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 94.887 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 94.876 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 94.850 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.815 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 94.815 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 94.728 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.667 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 94.667 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 94.641 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.536 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 94.529 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 94.274 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 94.135 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.131 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.093 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.985 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 93.958 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 93.650 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 93.647 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 93.608 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 93.591 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 93.579 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 93.569 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 93.396 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 93.109 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 92.916 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 92.775 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 92.745 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 92.744 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 92.594 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 92.372 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 91.524 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.508 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.493 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.224 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.123 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 90.454 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 90.331 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 90.327 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 89.818 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 89.765 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 89.571 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 89.509 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 89.224 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 89.099 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 89.040 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 88.872 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 88.827 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 88.664 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 88.583 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 88.450 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 88.348 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 88.248 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 87.829 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 87.784 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 87.660 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 87.593 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 87.484 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 86.620 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 86.451 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 85.869 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 85.504 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 85.164 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 85.071 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 84.720 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 84.470 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 84.470 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 84.106 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 83.929 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 83.929 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 83.764 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 83.568 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 83.568 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 83.443 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 83.439 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 83.204 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 83.204 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 82.914 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 82.438 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 82.437 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 82.078 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 81.755 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 81.510 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 81.488 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 81.054 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 81.022 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.953 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 80.845 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 80.794 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 80.730 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.660 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 80.656 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 80.647 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 80.508 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 80.463 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 80.331 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| 80.314 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 79.671 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 79.495 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 79.401 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 79.351 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 79.272 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 79.272 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 78.902 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 78.841 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.141 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 77.411 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 77.385 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 76.850 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 76.827 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 76.434 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 75.995 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 75.440 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 73.307 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 73.288 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 73.147 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 72.981 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 72.421 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 72.261 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 72.027 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 71.839 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 71.834 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 71.360 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 71.177 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 70.880 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 70.880 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 70.880 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 70.655 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 70.371 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 70.332 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 69.680 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.253 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 67.892 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 67.850 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 67.810 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.718 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 67.435 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 67.429 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.106 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 67.102 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.070 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 67.034 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 66.375 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 65.637 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 65.005 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 64.967 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 64.766 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 63.813 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 63.455 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 63.284 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 63.284 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 62.574 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 62.082 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 60.677 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 60.455 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 60.203 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 60.022 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 59.999 | How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 59.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.330 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 59.204 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 58.786 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 58.786 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 58.319 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 57.980 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 57.933 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 57.212 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.203 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 57.167 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 57.148 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 56.703 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.524 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 56.395 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 56.241 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 56.240 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 56.131 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023) | Continuous |
| 55.499 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.734 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 53.921 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 53.515 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 52.786 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.721 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 52.516 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 51.881 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 51.821 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.673 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 51.584 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 51.106 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 48.857 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 48.137 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 47.399 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 46.545 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 46.484 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 45.089 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 44.760 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 44.316 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 43.789 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 42.585 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.145 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 42.093 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.247 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.812 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 40.186 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 39.184 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 38.736 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 38.056 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| 38.041 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 35.993 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 35.910 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 34.969 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 34.731 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 34.027 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 33.611 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 32.921 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 32.838 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 31.200 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 31.065 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 30.888 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 29.385 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 29.212 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 28.381 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 27.142 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 26.828 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 26.710 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 22.992 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023) | Continuous |
| 22.497 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 21.700 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 19.523 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 18.662 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.195 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 18.186 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 17.900 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 17.899 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 17.437 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 17.437 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.427 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.281 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 15.541 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.712 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 12.518 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 11.476 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.476 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 11.119 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.013 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 11.013 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 11.013 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 8.266 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.299 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.184 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 7.007 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 5.990 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| 5.827 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| 5.737 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 5.695 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 4.533 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 2.312 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 1.698 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.662 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.662 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.265 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.245 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 1.236 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 0.235 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| -3.178 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -6.566 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| -7.086 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 April 1) | Binary |
| -7.237 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| -8.126 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -8.764 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -9.556 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -10.171 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -19.454 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -23.215 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -23.418 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| -24.025 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -25.037 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.443 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -32.791 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -34.168 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| -39.045 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| -40.332 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -40.782 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -41.197 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -53.257 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -59.519 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| -63.215 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -65.129 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -65.739 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| -66.153 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| -66.335 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -66.576 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -69.561 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -76.598 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| -81.251 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -81.516 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -81.711 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| -103.107 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| -110.162 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| -111.862 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -118.597 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -122.206 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -152.921 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -173.286 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| -186.787 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -188.547 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -193.598 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -195.940 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -214.819 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -245.907 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -248.339 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -249.124 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -258.410 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -266.594 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -316.326 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -377.761 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -430.105 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -506.217 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -512.949 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |