TheAGI

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

1254	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
79.417	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
78.235	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
77.016	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
72.008	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
63.700	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
61.535	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
60.869	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
55.483	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
54.659	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
51.240	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
50.789	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
49.624	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
49.481	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
49.354	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
49.354	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
49.352	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
47.425	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
47.156	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
44.033	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
43.139	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
41.556	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
39.395	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
38.944	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
38.085	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
36.733	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
35.224	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
33.503	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
33.393	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
33.385	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
33.131	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
32.826	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
32.718	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
32.554	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
30.654	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
28.232	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
28.206	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
27.076	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
26.325	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.304	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
26.241	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
26.076	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
25.327	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
24.992	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
24.930	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
24.130	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
23.692	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
23.619	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
23.618	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
22.699	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
21.067	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
21.059	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
19.630	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
19.408	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
18.769	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
18.667	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
18.536	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
18.187	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
17.483	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
16.152	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
15.267	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.247	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
14.787	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.493	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
13.991	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
13.528	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
12.490	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
10.997	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.863	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
9.964	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
9.371	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
9.283	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
8.964	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
8.963	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
8.626	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
8.561	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
8.550	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
7.717	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
7.473	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.255	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.022	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
6.638	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
6.520	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
6.267	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
5.827	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
5.798	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
5.649	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
5.463	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
5.429	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
5.402	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
5.037	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.916	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
4.519	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
4.418	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
4.109	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
3.939	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.857	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
3.734	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
3.734	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
3.734	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
3.734	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.733	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
3.732	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
3.732	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
3.732	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
3.732	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.732	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
3.710	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
3.585	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
3.565	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.545	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
3.242	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
3.234	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
3.070	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
3.059	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
3.043	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
2.818	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
2.795	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
2.603	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
2.557	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
2.242	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
2.224	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
2.092	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
2.092	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.973	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.893	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
1.640	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.586	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
1.559	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.527	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
1.360	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
1.349	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
1.338	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024?	Continuous
1.311	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
1.291	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
1.291	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
1.287	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
1.181	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.171	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2052 questions)	Continuous
1.063	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
1.018	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.829	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.815	In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities?	Continuous
0.442	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
0.425	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
0.283	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2023 questions)	Continuous
0.207	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
-0.148	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
-0.215	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
-0.302	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-0.764	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2032 questions)	Continuous
-1.022	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
-1.333	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
-1.341	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2025 questions)	Continuous
-1.707	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
-1.870	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
-2.419	In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities?	Continuous
-4.015	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-5.537	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
-6.133	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-6.703	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
-7.026	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
-12.400	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-15.994	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-26.307	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.029	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-31.066	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-31.520	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-39.028	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-39.804	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
-48.308	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
-56.418	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
-71.954	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
-73.252	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-112.117	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-118.700	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-141.252	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-156.017	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-320.598	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary