TheAGI

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

9525	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.484	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
98.484	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
98.484	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
98.357	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
98.331	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
97.831	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
97.822	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
97.822	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
97.778	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
97.581	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
97.581	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
97.581	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
97.552	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
97.552	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
97.552	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
97.552	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
97.343	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
97.054	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
97.054	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
97.054	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
97.054	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
97.054	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
96.701	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
95.559	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
95.069	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
94.855	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
93.850	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
93.850	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
93.850	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
93.850	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
93.850	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
91.867	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
91.867	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
91.867	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
91.127	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
90.877	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
90.781	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
88.747	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
88.436	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
87.640	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
87.091	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
86.511	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
86.511	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
85.679	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
84.619	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
84.619	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
83.306	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
82.856	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
82.856	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
82.856	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
82.856	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
82.856	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
82.856	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
82.801	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers)	Binary
82.327	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves)	Binary
82.191	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
79.557	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks)	Binary
79.237	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder)	Binary
78.027	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
77.439	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
77.439	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
76.928	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
76.288	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
73.977	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic)	Binary
73.881	Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season?	Binary
72.813	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
72.184	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
72.184	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
71.721	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans)	Binary
71.660	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
71.660	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
70.818	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
70.495	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
70.236	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
70.069	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat)	Binary
69.617	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
68.289	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
67.887	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
67.779	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings)	Binary
67.737	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls)	Binary
67.644	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
67.423	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
67.423	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
67.423	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
67.423	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
67.423	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
67.244	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
67.024	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
66.992	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks)	Binary
66.138	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
66.103	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
66.099	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
65.864	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
63.644	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
63.171	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets)	Binary
63.170	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets)	Binary
62.465	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
62.000	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
61.775	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
61.239	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
61.009	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
61.006	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
60.574	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
60.522	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
60.514	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
60.459	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
59.903	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
59.247	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
58.887	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
58.887	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
58.886	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
58.673	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors)	Binary
58.673	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz)	Binary
57.556	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
57.090	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets)	Binary
56.976	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
56.617	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
56.281	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
55.284	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
54.790	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
54.621	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers)	Binary
54.439	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
54.049	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
53.263	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
53.263	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
52.002	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
51.802	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
51.802	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
51.768	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards)	Binary
51.471	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons)	Binary
50.992	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs)	Binary
49.358	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
49.358	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
49.358	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
49.358	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
49.358	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
49.037	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
49.027	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
49.027	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
48.915	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
48.915	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
48.915	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
48.368	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
46.930	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
45.766	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
45.218	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
45.081	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
44.080	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
43.196	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
42.446	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
42.250	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024)	Continuous
39.500	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
38.467	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
37.274	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
34.581	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
33.999	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
33.174	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024)	Continuous
32.793	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
31.160	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024)	Continuous
29.240	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
29.221	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
28.920	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
28.596	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
25.965	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
25.753	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
24.829	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
24.562	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
24.519	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
23.573	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
23.491	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
21.250	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
21.250	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
21.096	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024)	Continuous
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
20.413	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
19.739	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
19.336	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
19.108	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
18.427	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
18.294	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
17.982	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
17.370	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
15.367	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
15.367	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
14.111	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
13.798	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
13.760	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
13.760	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
13.760	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
13.760	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
13.242	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
12.957	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
12.549	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
12.396	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
11.443	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
11.436	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
10.930	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
10.718	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
9.373	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
8.943	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
8.641	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
8.572	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
8.500	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
8.472	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
8.472	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
8.374	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
8.020	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
8.001	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
7.841	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
7.646	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
7.447	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
7.438	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
7.248	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
7.156	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
7.140	Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election?	Binary
6.776	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
6.487	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
6.367	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
6.269	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
6.181	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
5.991	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
5.299	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
5.299	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
5.299	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
5.259	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
4.727	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun)	Binary
4.118	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
4.116	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
4.019	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
3.903	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.841	When will Open-Assistant be available for public use via a web interface?	Continuous
3.828	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
3.766	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
3.652	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
3.560	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
3.522	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.349	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
3.293	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.291	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
3.003	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
2.995	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
2.826	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
2.826	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
2.398	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis)	Continuous
2.318	Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?	Binary
2.308	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
2.154	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
2.077	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
2.015	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
1.981	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
1.930	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
1.885	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
1.353	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
1.318	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
1.188	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever)	Binary
1.188	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury)	Binary
0.876	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream)	Binary
0.876	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm)	Binary
0.847	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
0.397	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.397	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.397	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.397	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.397	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.397	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.338	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.319	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson)	Continuous
0.193	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.106	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks)	Binary
0.106	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics)	Binary
0.106	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky)	Binary
0.106	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings)	Binary
0.094	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
0.084	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Continuous
0.076	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
0.032	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
0.009	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
-	Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?	Binary
-0.013	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-0.013	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-0.038	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
-0.077	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
-0.123	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-0.184	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
-0.371	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-0.371	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-0.371	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
-0.371	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
-0.371	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-0.402	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
-0.469	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
-0.568	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-2.175	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
-2.821	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
-3.495	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-3.704	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
-4.688	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
-6.450	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
-8.310	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
-9.004	When will the first Activision/Blizzard/King game be added to Xbox Game Pass?	Continuous
-10.365	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
-16.959	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
-21.554	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-30.059	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
-34.857	When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?	Continuous
-45.767	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
-46.477	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-49.418	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-51.156	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
-52.724	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
-55.270	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
-55.539	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
-57.505	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
-59.838	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-65.754	Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?	Binary
-71.865	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-73.855	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
-113.684	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
-114.491	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
-126.035	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-129.359	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
-129.955	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
-195.274	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-203.293	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-208.412	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
-226.409	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
-283.020	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
-424.385	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-559.431	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
-559.969	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary