Haiku

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.15k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
108.728	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
107.483	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
99.718	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
99.226	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
99.173	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
99.173	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
99.173	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
99.073	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
99.012	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
98.911	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
98.791	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California)	Binary
98.790	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
98.400	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
98.085	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
97.866	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
96.840	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
96.750	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
96.739	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
96.568	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
96.530	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
96.158	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
96.142	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.118	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.957	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
95.957	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
95.718	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.703	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
95.411	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
95.101	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
95.017	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
94.849	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
94.829	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
94.517	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
94.334	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
93.775	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
92.657	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
92.324	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.106	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
91.945	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
91.806	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
91.790	Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?	Binary
91.736	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
91.564	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
91.279	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
91.213	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
91.164	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
90.561	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
90.201	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
90.117	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
89.907	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
89.095	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
88.344	Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?	Binary
88.243	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
88.176	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
87.810	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
87.792	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
87.660	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
87.498	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
86.152	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
85.574	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
84.979	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
84.654	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
82.981	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
82.881	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.830	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
82.484	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
81.871	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
81.176	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
81.070	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
80.787	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
80.420	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
80.270	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
80.012	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.773	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
78.571	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
78.376	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
78.099	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
77.797	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
77.683	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
76.533	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
75.729	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
75.251	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
74.625	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
74.062	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
73.687	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
73.358	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
72.937	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
72.936	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
72.745	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
72.529	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
72.229	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Binary
70.924	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.470	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
69.259	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
69.050	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
68.350	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
67.593	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
67.392	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
67.377	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
66.814	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
66.721	Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025)	Binary
66.257	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2)	Binary
65.577	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
65.127	Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?	Binary
64.691	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
64.005	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
63.923	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
63.235	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
63.094	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
62.622	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
61.688	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.768	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
59.967	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
59.923	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
59.763	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
59.204	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
58.640	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
58.051	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
57.633	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
57.097	On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?	Multiple Choice
56.755	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
56.462	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
55.952	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
54.738	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
54.732	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
54.659	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
54.178	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
50.535	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
50.208	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
49.865	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
49.865	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
49.691	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
48.658	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
48.076	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
47.956	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
47.829	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
47.073	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
46.580	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
45.782	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
44.767	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
44.483	What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
41.600	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
40.586	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
40.322	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
39.861	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
39.707	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
39.362	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
38.983	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
38.934	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
38.877	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
36.203	Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years? (2025)	Binary
36.203	Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years? (2025)	Binary
35.705	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
35.619	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
35.126	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
34.923	What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
34.247	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
32.954	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
32.249	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
31.543	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
31.029	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
30.935	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
30.588	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
30.205	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
30.111	Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024)	Binary
29.973	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
28.994	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
28.820	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
27.784	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
27.535	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
27.401	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
25.981	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
24.888	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
24.748	On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?	Multiple Choice
24.146	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
23.363	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.219	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
21.314	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
21.292	What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be?	Continuous
21.058	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
21.005	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1)	Binary
20.941	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
19.831	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?	Binary
19.755	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3)	Binary
19.674	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
18.695	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
18.533	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
17.270	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
16.501	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
14.687	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
14.514	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
14.032	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
11.882	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
11.653	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.589	[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Binary
10.157	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
9.607	Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?	Binary
7.134	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
7.102	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
4.792	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.468	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
3.668	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
3.666	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
3.126	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
3.117	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
3.061	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
2.032	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
1.409	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
0.925	What will be the price of Palladium futures (in $USD) at the end of 2024?	Continuous
0.234	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-1.028	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.827	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-2.528	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-3.811	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-4.951	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.228	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-5.505	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-5.832	How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?	Multiple Choice
-6.556	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-7.823	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-10.119	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-10.989	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.265	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-12.108	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
-13.072	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-19.498	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-20.140	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-21.196	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-21.349	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-21.916	What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
-24.022	What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
-28.914	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-31.287	When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?	Continuous
-34.435	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-35.450	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
-35.995	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
-37.096	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-37.677	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-41.729	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-46.542	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-52.025	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-52.574	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-53.068	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
-54.479	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-55.534	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-55.878	In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2024)	Continuous
-58.163	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-59.931	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-64.704	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-68.268	Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?	Binary
-68.815	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-69.643	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-78.007	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-80.788	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-81.187	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-85.577	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-109.021	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-110.295	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-110.442	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-131.706	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-176.011	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-218.602	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-235.821	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-238.859	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary