rcoaster2000

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6197	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.528	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
98.528	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
98.528	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
98.528	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
98.528	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
98.528	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
98.383	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
98.272	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
97.854	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
97.707	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
97.590	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?	Multiple Choice
97.269	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
96.978	Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025)	Binary
96.490	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
96.411	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
95.800	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
94.605	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
92.994	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
92.713	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
92.696	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey)	Binary
91.849	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
91.434	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Binary
90.654	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
90.654	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
90.353	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
89.542	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
88.889	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri)	Binary
88.464	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
88.337	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
87.869	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
87.590	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
87.462	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
85.590	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
84.944	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
84.944	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
84.944	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
83.144	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
83.007	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
81.982	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.934	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
81.934	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
81.934	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
81.864	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.744	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
81.483	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
80.682	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
79.967	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
79.232	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
78.900	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
78.675	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
78.500	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
78.495	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
77.895	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
77.306	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
77.160	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
76.853	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
76.766	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania?	Multiple Choice
76.725	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
75.129	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
74.663	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona)	Binary
72.997	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
72.917	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia?	Multiple Choice
72.783	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
72.751	Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?	Binary
72.654	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
72.617	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
72.508	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
72.324	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
72.305	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
71.895	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
71.801	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
71.035	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
70.853	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
70.635	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
69.439	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka?	Multiple Choice
69.171	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
67.938	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
67.120	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad?	Multiple Choice
65.765	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
65.758	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
64.981	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland)	Binary
64.843	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
64.500	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
63.584	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
63.579	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
63.300	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
63.098	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
62.935	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
62.621	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
61.842	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
61.722	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
59.908	Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?	Binary
59.570	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
59.268	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
59.159	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
56.982	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
56.879	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas)	Binary
56.517	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
56.250	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
56.199	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
55.904	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
54.270	[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?	Binary
54.269	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida)	Binary
53.062	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana?	Multiple Choice
52.569	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
52.130	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I))	Binary
51.808	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
51.238	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
50.409	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
49.866	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
49.060	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
49.024	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
49.020	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
48.899	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
48.733	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
48.308	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
47.313	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
46.914	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.437	Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025)	Binary
43.297	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.437	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan)	Binary
42.213	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
41.431	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
41.405	Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
40.956	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
40.819	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
40.773	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
40.773	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
39.318	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
38.092	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
37.296	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
37.212	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
36.925	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
36.762	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
35.557	Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.796	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
34.334	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
34.328	Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.233	What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
34.116	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
33.202	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
32.625	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
32.337	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
31.288	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
30.496	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan)	Binary
30.295	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
29.660	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
29.096	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
27.076	Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024)	Binary
27.001	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
25.178	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
24.771	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
24.490	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
24.333	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
24.272	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.665	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia)	Binary
22.523	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh)	Binary
22.393	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
21.438	Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?	Binary
20.680	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
19.903	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau?	Multiple Choice
18.929	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
18.714	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.335	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia)	Binary
18.335	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia)	Binary
18.076	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
16.909	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
16.882	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic?	Multiple Choice
16.106	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
15.030	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
14.680	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
12.488	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.940	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2)	Binary
10.593	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France)	Binary
9.725	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.470	Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024?	Multiple Choice
9.055	After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus?	Multiple Choice
7.703	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
7.506	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
7.219	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.198	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico)	Binary
6.915	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
5.152	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
4.845	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil)	Binary
3.866	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (AD (Aliança Democrática))	Continuous
3.428	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
3.388	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
3.104	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
2.917	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.832	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
2.799	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
1.377	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PS (Partido Socialista))	Continuous
1.038	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
0.628	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
0.516	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
0.426	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
0.367	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
0.043	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
0.039	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
-	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
-	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
-	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
-	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China)	Binary
-0.746	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany)	Binary
-1.780	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India)	Binary
-1.867	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom)	Binary
-1.938	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
-2.973	Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?	Binary
-3.078	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3)	Binary
-3.962	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States)	Binary
-4.945	Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?	Binary
-5.345	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
-6.068	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-6.727	Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-7.618	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.208	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-8.234	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan)	Binary
-9.378	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-10.902	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
-14.619	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CH (Chega!))	Continuous
-14.830	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
-16.251	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-17.095	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
-17.255	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
-19.790	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-22.876	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
-25.448	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-28.061	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-28.245	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
-28.369	Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-29.195	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.570	How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election?	Multiple Choice
-35.603	2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-35.623	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-39.004	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
-40.978	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-41.246	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-43.697	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-43.703	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland?	Multiple Choice
-46.019	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
-47.485	Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?	Binary
-50.109	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland?	Multiple Choice
-50.650	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
-55.307	How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?	Multiple Choice
-55.744	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-57.245	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-69.662	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico)	Continuous
-71.052	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado)	Continuous
-71.867	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-74.231	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio)	Continuous
-75.349	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia)	Continuous
-77.488	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin)	Continuous
-77.635	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
-78.143	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide))	Continuous
-78.208	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska)	Continuous
-78.222	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa)	Continuous
-78.225	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota)	Continuous
-78.246	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia)	Continuous
-78.247	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey)	Continuous
-78.248	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire)	Continuous
-78.251	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina)	Continuous
-78.251	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas)	Continuous
-78.252	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan)	Continuous
-78.255	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada)	Continuous
-78.256	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona)	Continuous
-78.265	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida)	Continuous
-80.159	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
-86.726	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-108.135	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-114.444	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-128.812	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-173.393	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National)	Continuous
-218.545	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-308.704	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
-550.816	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary