chriss.lin

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2026

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1108	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.783	What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
96.310	Will Vladimir Putin visit Iran before September 1, 2026?	Binary
96.018	Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?	Binary
95.485	Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?	Binary
94.948	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before May 1, 2026?	Binary
94.818	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person before September 1, 2026?	Binary
92.557	Will gas prices in the US reach a new all-time high before April 1, 2026?	Binary
87.740	Will Bitcoin trade above $120,000 before August 1, 2026?	Binary
85.022	Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million?	Binary
83.356	Will Italy's Schengen suspension against Spain be lifted before August 30, 2026?	Binary
80.973	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk)	Binary
79.926	Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?	Binary
76.103	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before May 1, 2026?	Binary
75.104	Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?	Binary
73.592	Which country will be ranked the least peaceful in the Global Peace Index 2026?	Multiple Choice
72.092	Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026?	Binary
71.158	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Nepali House of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
70.348	Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?	Binary
69.736	How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026?	Multiple Choice
63.724	Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?	Binary
62.716	Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?	Binary
58.900	Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before April 1, 2026?	Binary
58.650	Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?	Binary
58.213	On July 8, 2026, will Marine Le Pen be ineligible to run in the 2027 French presidential election?	Binary
57.501	Will Iran's Internet not be "heavily filtered/whitelisted" for most users before May 2026?	Binary
57.204	Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Binary
55.589	Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?	Binary
54.848	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?	Binary
54.417	What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026?	Continuous
52.884	Will Jonathan Ross be indicted or charged in the death of Renee Good before July 1, 2026?	Binary
51.729	What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026?	Continuous
51.558	Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Binary
51.115	How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026?	Continuous
51.077	Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?	Binary
49.244	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?	Binary
48.689	Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Multiple Choice
47.561	Will any Individual Neutral Athlete (Russian and Belarusian athletes) win any medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Binary
46.181	How many MPs will Reform UK have on May 7, 2026?	Continuous
45.031	What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026?	Continuous
44.406	What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026?	Multiple Choice
43.548	How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards?	Continuous
42.050	What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026?	Continuous
41.629	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on March 14, 2026?	Continuous
40.068	Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?	Binary
39.143	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on April 14, 2026?	Continuous
38.068	In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month?	Binary
37.913	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights)	Continuous
37.552	What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections?	Continuous
36.686	Will Senator John Cornyn avoid elimination in the first round of the Texas Republican primary?	Binary
36.489	Which Party will win the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election?	Multiple Choice
34.578	Who will win the 2026 Texas Democratic primary for US Senate?	Multiple Choice
33.944	Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Multiple Choice
32.936	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on February 14, 2026?	Continuous
29.922	What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala?	Continuous
28.043	Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?	Binary
26.138	Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?	Binary
25.519	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
25.299	What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026?	Continuous
24.962	What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026?	Continuous
24.558	Will the United States see less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? (Yes) → What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
24.423	How much higher will the Shanghai–LA spot container freight rate be than the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate on March 5, 2026?	Continuous
24.229	What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026?	Continuous
23.355	Will a bot be #1 in the Metaculus 2026 Baseline Leaderboard on the Ides of March 2026?	Binary
18.913	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election?	Continuous
18.718	What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025?	Continuous
18.635	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil))	Binary
17.465	Who will win the 2026 Republican primary for the Texas 2nd Congressional District (where Dan Crenshaw is the incumbent)?	Multiple Choice
17.053	Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?	Binary
17.010	What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?	Continuous
16.864	What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026?	Continuous
16.315	Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?	Binary
16.308	Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin speak on the phone in August 2026?	Binary
15.668	What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026?	Continuous
15.242	Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?	Binary
14.605	How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups?	Multiple Choice
14.475	Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?	Binary
13.721	What will the United States score on the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index?	Continuous
10.829	Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin speak on the phone with each other before August 1, 2026?	Binary
10.065	What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025?	Continuous
9.030	Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?	Binary
8.828	What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025?	Continuous
8.672	Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?	Multiple Choice
8.661	Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026?	Binary
8.470	Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%?	Binary
8.147	What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025?	Continuous
6.317	Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?	Binary
6.180	Will Brent crude oil reach $100 a barrel before April 1, 2026?	Binary
5.542	Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026?	Multiple Choice
4.300	How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Continuous
1.662	How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?	Continuous
1.608	What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026?	Continuous
-1.413	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?	Continuous
-2.020	What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025?	Continuous
-2.032	Will the United States attempt to occupy or blockade Kharg Island during 2026?	Binary
-2.312	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?	Binary
-3.023	Will 12 or more oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day before May 1, 2026?	Binary
-5.554	Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?	Binary
-8.455	What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX?	Continuous
-8.870	When will the Supreme Court release its decision on presidential tariff authority in Learning Resources v. Trump?	Multiple Choice
-13.453	Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?	Binary
-14.942	Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?	Binary
-23.725	What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026?	Continuous
-24.581	What will be the average weekly YoY growth of the Redbook Same-Store Retail Sales Index during February 2026?	Continuous
-31.707	Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?	Binary
-35.799	Which major currency will increase most (or decrease least) in value compared to the US dollar during February 2026?	Multiple Choice
-36.905	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran before April 1, 2026?	Binary
-38.525	How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Continuous
-40.538	What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?	Continuous
-41.336	Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026?	Binary
-47.724	Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan)	Binary
-55.742	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before May 2026?	Binary
-61.770	Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?	Binary
-75.304	How much in goods will the US export in December 2025?	Continuous
-81.064	Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026?	Binary
-87.060	Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?	Binary
-88.410	Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025?	Binary
-100.395	What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026?	Continuous
-141.488	Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026?	Binary
-146.119	Will Saudi Arabia conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-160.394	Will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person before April 3, 2026?	Binary
-164.269	Will the United States and Iran hold another face-to-face diplomatic meeting before June 6, 2026?	Binary
-190.169	How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers)	Continuous
-206.317	What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026?	Continuous
-227.758	Who will win the Republican Primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District?	Multiple Choice
-247.576	Will the United Arab Emirates conduct a direct military strike against Iran before June 1, 2026?	Binary
-313.926	Will any political party or coalition acquire a supermajority in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections?	Binary