MacroMarkets

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2734	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.706	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
95.324	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
93.842	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
92.136	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
84.996	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
83.406	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
81.655	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
79.929	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
79.096	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
77.091	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
76.405	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
73.856	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
73.495	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
73.302	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
72.297	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
72.226	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
71.794	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
69.988	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
69.049	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
66.142	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
65.626	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
65.552	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
65.151	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
64.484	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
63.050	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
62.407	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
60.121	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
59.888	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
59.865	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
59.244	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
56.760	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
56.228	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
55.839	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.652	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
54.517	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
54.398	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
54.398	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
53.927	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
51.524	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
50.745	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
50.109	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
50.019	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
49.872	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
49.583	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
48.407	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
46.148	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
44.705	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
43.546	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
42.307	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
42.246	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
41.893	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
40.745	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
40.290	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
39.959	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
39.583	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
37.755	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
34.738	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
34.273	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
33.952	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
32.365	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
31.881	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
30.742	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
30.050	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
30.024	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
29.271	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
29.208	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
28.883	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
28.001	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.204	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
25.025	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
24.962	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
24.372	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
24.357	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
24.173	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
22.994	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
22.917	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
20.132	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
18.809	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
18.170	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
18.139	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
17.972	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
17.636	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
16.896	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
16.807	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
16.807	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
16.112	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
15.985	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
15.916	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
15.294	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
15.092	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
14.615	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
14.519	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for overtime income in tax year 2026?	Binary
13.513	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
13.446	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
13.335	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
13.193	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?	Binary
12.698	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
12.005	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
11.664	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
11.342	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
11.318	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
11.128	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
11.119	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
10.782	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
10.698	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
10.236	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
10.224	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
9.789	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
9.017	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
8.665	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
7.496	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
7.445	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
7.359	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
6.567	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
6.361	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
5.883	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
5.747	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
5.211	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
4.646	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
4.214	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
4.179	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
3.909	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
3.487	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
3.349	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
2.963	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
2.931	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
2.855	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
2.720	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
2.716	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
2.557	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
2.487	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
1.617	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.450	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
0.251	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
0.187	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-1.166	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-1.244	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-5.331	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
-7.373	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-8.943	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-9.207	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
-10.828	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-11.091	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-12.877	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-14.091	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-14.384	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-14.602	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-15.132	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-16.297	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
-16.654	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-18.024	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-18.240	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-18.463	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-19.091	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-21.850	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)	Binary
-22.402	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-26.206	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-26.785	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-27.788	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-32.138	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-33.728	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
-39.113	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-52.463	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-55.375	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-66.256	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-72.095	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-77.142	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-80.184	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-82.637	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-108.119	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-145.087	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
-151.462	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-155.584	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-393.081	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary