| 96.344 | Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026? | Binary |
| 85.954 | What will be the average live TV viewership rating of China Media Group's 2026 Chinese New Year’s Gala? | Continuous |
| 81.012 | What will the Upstart Macro Index values be for cohorts similar to recent applicants in the following months? (March 2026) | Continuous |
| 76.459 | Will a ceasefire in the 2026 conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran be announced before March 15, 2026? | Binary |
| 74.233 | Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026? | Binary |
| 74.192 | Which country will lead the medal table at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 72.325 | Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026? | Binary |
| 71.812 | What will the Upstart Macro Index be in the following months? (February 2026) | Continuous |
| 71.346 | Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026? | Binary |
| 70.657 | What will the Upstart Macro Index values be for cohorts similar to recent applicants in the following months? (February 2026) | Continuous |
| 69.192 | Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Omsk) | Binary |
| 68.643 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Nepali House of Representatives election? | Multiple Choice |
| 68.637 | Will gas prices in the US reach a new all-time high before April 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 67.033 | What will be the price difference between Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate on March 4, 2026? | Continuous |
| 66.247 | What will the Upstart Macro Index values be for cohorts similar to recent applicants in the following months? (April 2026) | Continuous |
| 65.903 | Will any AI model achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before April 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 63.221 | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| 62.706 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | Multiple Choice |
| 60.893 | Will Nvidia's revenue for the quarter ending January 25, 2026 exceed Nvidia's guidance by more than 5%? | Binary |
| 60.340 | What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (February 2026) | Continuous |
| 59.840 | Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Kstovo (Lukoil)) | Binary |
| 57.187 | Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026? | Binary |
| 56.315 | What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (March 2026) | Continuous |
| 55.368 | How much higher will the Shanghai–LA spot container freight rate be than the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate on March 5, 2026? | Continuous |
| 49.908 | Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026? | Binary |
| 49.487 | What will be the ratio of search interest between Google and ChatGPT in the first two weeks of March 2026? | Continuous |
| 48.441 | Will the number of manufacturing jobs in the US for February 2026 be above 12.7 million? | Binary |
| 46.713 | How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season? | Continuous |
| 46.415 | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| 46.168 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026? | Binary |
| 46.118 | How many US banks will fail from January through April 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 44.302 | Will Nvidia's stock price reach a new record close in February 2026? | Binary |
| 43.902 | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| 43.317 | How many countries will the United States attack before May 2026? | Continuous |
| 42.901 | Which Party will win the 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election? | Multiple Choice |
| 42.019 | Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election? | Binary |
| 41.507 | What will be the US monthly core CPI inflation for February 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 41.407 | What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report? | Continuous |
| 41.391 | What will the Upstart Macro Index be for California in the following months? (April 2026) | Continuous |
| 41.389 | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin) | Continuous |
| 41.065 | Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games? | Binary |
| 40.782 | Which of the following Russian oil refineries will be hit by Ukraine before March 14, 2026? (Ryazan) | Binary |
| 39.318 | What will the Upstart Macro Index be in the following months? (March 2026) | Continuous |
| 39.110 | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| 39.018 | In February 2026, will the weekly amount of finished motor gasoline supplied in the U.S. be highest in the final week of the month? | Binary |
| 38.566 | What will be the highest price of silver per troy ounce in April 2026? | Continuous |
| 38.509 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| 38.040 | How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Texas relative to California in the following months? (February 2026) | Continuous |
| 37.605 | What will be the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for February 2026? | Continuous |
| 37.578 | Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026? | Binary |
| 37.015 | Will another country announce they will quit OPEC or OPEC+ before September 2026? | Binary |
| 36.905 | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election? | Continuous |
| 34.779 | What will be the US goods trade balance with China in December 2025? | Continuous |
| 34.685 | What will EFAMA report as net inflows to European investment funds in December 2025? | Continuous |
| 34.596 | Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026? | Binary |
| 33.360 | Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026? | Binary |
| 31.992 | Will Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff in the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Binary |
| 31.917 | What percentage of ASML's net system sales will be to China in Q4 2025? | Continuous |
| 31.187 | Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 31.091 | What will be the Indian Wholesale Price Index monthly inflation rate in January 2026? | Continuous |
| 30.802 | What percentage of US households will watch Super Bowl LX? | Continuous |
| 30.131 | What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on March 14, 2026? | Continuous |
| 28.332 | What will the first reported revenues after December 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
| 28.259 | How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Texas relative to California in the following months? (April 2026) | Continuous |
| 27.677 | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| 27.501 | How many Oscars will Sinners win at the 2026 Academy Awards? | Continuous |
| 26.454 | What will be the Chinese model share on Openrouter for the week of April 19, 2026? | Continuous |
| 25.603 | How many #1 seeds will reach the Elite Eight in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness? | Multiple Choice |
| 25.346 | Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? | Binary |
| 23.164 | How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Texas relative to California in the following months? (March 2026) | Continuous |
| 22.276 | Will the German 10-Year Bond Yield move by 20bps or more during February 2026? | Binary |
| 22.214 | How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Continuous |
| 21.923 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| 20.103 | How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Hoppers) | Continuous |
| 19.348 | What will be the abstention rate in the first round of the 2026 French municipal elections? | Continuous |
| 18.070 | What will be the highest price of Brent crude oil during April 2026? | Continuous |
| 17.735 | Which major currency will increase most (or decrease least) in value compared to the US dollar during February 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 16.873 | What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026? (GSO Benchmark (OPT@1)) | Continuous |
| 16.096 | What will the Upstart Macro Index be in the following months? (April 2026) | Continuous |
| 15.874 | How many Italian teams will win their 2025–26 Champions League knockout play-off matchups? | Multiple Choice |
| 15.043 | Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026? | Binary |
| 13.949 | What will the Upstart Macro Index be for California in the following months? (March 2026) | Continuous |
| 12.096 | What will the United States score on the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index? | Continuous |
| 10.759 | What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026? (OSWorld Verified) | Continuous |
| 9.864 | Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 9.104 | What will be the average weekly YoY growth of the Redbook Same-Store Retail Sales Index during February 2026? | Continuous |
| 8.480 | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| 8.307 | How much will Wuthering Heights and Hoppers gross domestically during their opening weekend? (Wuthering Heights) | Continuous |
| 8.217 | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue) | Continuous |
| 7.737 | Which book will win the 2025 National Book Critics Circle Award for fiction? | Multiple Choice |
| 7.570 | What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (May 2026) | Continuous |
| 7.218 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| 6.327 | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| 6.091 | How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Ohio relative to California in the following months? (April 2026) | Continuous |
| 5.426 | What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026? (AGI-ARC-2) | Continuous |
| 5.391 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| 4.366 | What will the Upstart Macro Index be for California in the following months? (February 2026) | Continuous |
| 3.925 | What will be Bitcoin's weekly average hash rate on March 12, 2026? | Continuous |
| 3.616 | What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (April 2026) | Continuous |
| 3.456 | Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026? | Binary |
| 2.403 | What will be the combined capex for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon during the fourth quarter of 2025? | Continuous |
| 1.956 | How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Ohio relative to California in the following months? (February 2026) | Continuous |
| 1.793 | Which game will win the Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Video Games and Other Interactive Media in 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.725 | Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election? | Binary |
| 1.346 | Will the United States attempt to occupy or blockade Kharg Island during 2026? | Binary |
| 0.917 | What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (June 2026) | Continuous |
| 0.037 | Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026? | Binary |
| -0.372 | What will the ratio of Upstart Macro Index values for prime to subprime loans be in the following months? (July 2026) | Continuous |
| -0.722 | When will Claude Fable 5 next be publicly accessible? (US) | Continuous |
| -1.415 | What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 13, 2026? | Continuous |
| -2.116 | [Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026? | Continuous |
| -2.424 | Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027? | Binary |
| -4.507 | Will Brent crude oil reach $100 a barrel before April 1, 2026? | Binary |
| -5.982 | How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026? | Continuous |
| -6.149 | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| -7.191 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026? | Continuous |
| -7.960 | Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| -8.872 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran before April 1, 2026? | Binary |
| -10.576 | Will Cloudflare experience another critical incident before May 2026? | Binary |
| -11.428 | Will Brent crude oil reach $90 a barrel before March 15, 2026? | Binary |
| -13.796 | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| -14.563 | Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026? | Binary |
| -14.693 | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q4 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses) | Continuous |
| -15.946 | What will US manufacturing construction spending be in December 2025? | Continuous |
| -16.071 | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| -16.601 | How many dissenting votes will there be at the January 28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting? | Multiple Choice |
| -17.114 | How much higher (or lower) will the Upstart Macro Index be for Ohio relative to California in the following months? (March 2026) | Continuous |
| -17.463 | Will the United States see less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026? (Yes) → What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026? | Continuous |
| -19.427 | How much in goods will the US export in December 2025? | Continuous |
| -20.939 | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Feb 16 - Feb 27) | Continuous |
| -23.119 | How many more (or fewer) seats will SDS win compared to GS in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Continuous |
| -25.691 | What will be the highest scores in these ΑΙ benchmarks before September 2026? (Remote Labor Index) | Continuous |
| -27.299 | What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026? | Continuous |
| -27.875 | Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026? | Binary |
| -28.136 | What will the first reported earnings per share after December 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
| -28.555 | Who will Donald Trump endorse in the Texas Republican US Senate runoff: John Cornyn or Ken Paxton? | Multiple Choice |
| -29.032 | What will be the highest price of gold per troy ounce in February 2026? | Continuous |
| -34.301 | When will the Supreme Court release its decision on presidential tariff authority in Learning Resources v. Trump? | Multiple Choice |
| -38.567 | Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025? | Binary |
| -41.728 | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 19 - Jan 30) | Continuous |
| -46.922 | What will be the combined weight (%) of AI companies in the S&P 500 on February 27, 2026? | Continuous |
| -63.717 | Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026? | Binary |
| -64.094 | What will be the U.S. Dollar to Argentine Peso exchange rate on March 2, 2026? | Continuous |
| -81.514 | What will YoY US electricity inflation be for February 2026? | Continuous |
| -82.566 | Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026? | Binary |
| -89.437 | What will be the MoM change to UK retail sales volume during January 2026? | Continuous |
| -234.480 | Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before May 2026? | Binary |