| 107.632 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 74.676 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
| 68.129 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
| 65.925 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 61.675 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
| 51.380 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
| 43.159 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 36.054 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| 35.831 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
| 35.251 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 33.750 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| 33.184 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.931 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
| 29.271 | How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 28.115 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
| 27.796 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 27.506 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
| 26.994 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
| 26.456 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 24.613 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 24.476 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.942 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
| 23.582 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 23.007 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
| 20.759 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
| 20.750 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
| 20.717 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 19.103 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
| 18.813 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
| 18.671 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 18.604 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
| 18.478 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 18.439 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.891 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
| 17.612 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
| 17.115 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
| 16.693 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.161 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
| 15.490 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 15.278 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
| 13.997 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 13.711 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.568 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.429 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
| 13.429 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
| 12.562 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 12.561 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.326 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
| 12.096 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 12.029 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 11.998 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 11.433 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 11.156 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.858 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
| 10.690 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.518 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
| 10.273 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 10.144 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
| 9.898 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
| 9.461 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
| 9.426 | How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing? | Continuous |
| 9.055 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 8.992 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
| 8.641 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 8.274 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
| 8.104 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.999 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
| 7.627 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 7.258 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.185 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
| 6.993 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.823 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
| 6.791 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
| 6.776 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
| 6.038 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 5.960 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 5.933 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.870 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
| 5.803 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.754 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
| 5.502 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.449 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
| 5.348 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.226 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 4.977 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.901 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.438 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
| 4.158 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
| 4.056 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.991 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
| 3.933 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.697 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
| 3.679 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.537 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
| 3.220 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
| 2.992 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.148 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.489 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.476 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
| 1.449 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
| 1.416 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
| 1.055 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
| 0.970 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
| 0.920 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.835 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.563 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
| 0.505 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
| 0.215 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.093 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
| 0.017 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
| 0.016 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
| 0.013 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
| 0.008 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.008 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
| 0.004 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
| -0.090 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -0.115 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
| -0.209 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
| -0.373 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
| -0.630 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
| -0.724 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| -1.023 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
| -1.150 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -1.312 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
| -1.385 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
| -3.120 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
| -3.922 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
| -4.706 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
| -5.156 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| -6.695 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
| -7.984 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
| -10.044 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
| -11.000 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
| -14.483 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
| -20.443 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
| -24.309 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
| -25.955 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
| -26.288 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
| -33.091 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
| -45.644 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
| -100.831 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |