aristophanes

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.425		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
64.951	99.6%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
54.585	99.3%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
46.692	91.7%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
45.214	99.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
41.802	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
38.418	99.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
34.891	99.8%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
32.854	98.5%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
32.171	99.9%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
27.047	99.4%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
26.720	35.3%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
25.906	99.2%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
25.646	67.8%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
25.385	98.6%	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
22.564	99.5%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
21.693	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
21.356	30.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
20.056	99.8%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
19.895	96.3%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
19.852	98.5%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
19.766	99.9%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
18.331	95.9%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
18.031	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
17.040	99.0%	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
16.880	99.3%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
15.761	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
15.276	95.3%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
14.833	99.7%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
14.778	99.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
14.302	99.2%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
14.200	93.7%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
13.769	99.9%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
13.666	49.9%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
12.410	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
11.673	99.7%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
11.152	99.8%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
11.113	75.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
11.024	99.2%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.839	97.0%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
10.565	97.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
9.735	75.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
9.516	99.7%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
9.354	69.8%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
9.343	97.6%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
9.283	99.2%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
9.193	99.8%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
9.180	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
9.074	50.0%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
8.629	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
8.277	18.5%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
8.243	99.8%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
7.833	99.2%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.436	92.9%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
7.333	99.2%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.075	99.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
6.949	51.8%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
6.679	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
6.662	99.2%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.598	99.2%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.435	99.6%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
6.385	18.4%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
6.366	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
6.356	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
6.350	99.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
6.306	99.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
6.177	85.9%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
5.661	99.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
5.617	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
5.600	99.1%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
5.330	46.4%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
5.198	85.9%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
5.130	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.763	99.4%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
4.673	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
4.548	97.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
4.497	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
4.464	6.2%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
4.415	92.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.183	84.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.134	97.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
4.125	99.8%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
3.961	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.903	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
3.867	85.9%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
3.830	97.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
3.821	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
3.783	75.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
3.704	99.9%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
3.496	97.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
3.422	30.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
3.328	85.9%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
3.302	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
3.231	66.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
3.151	99.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
3.118	99.6%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
2.798	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
2.730	97.6%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
2.669	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
2.570	49.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
2.488	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
2.443	6.2%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
2.423	99.6%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
2.274	85.9%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
2.245	90.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.221	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
2.183	85.9%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
2.167	35.8%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
2.137	8.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
1.994	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.949	97.6%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
1.858	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
1.805	55.9%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
1.804	66.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
1.782	46.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
1.744	96.3%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
1.710	95.7%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
1.679	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
1.614	85.9%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
1.314	8.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.274	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
1.251	97.6%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
1.240	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
1.219	98.8%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.209	75.7%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
1.194	70.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.174	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
1.070	99.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
1.018	99.9%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
1.011	99.9%	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
0.991	23.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
0.781	23.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
0.753	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
0.741	23.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.708	99.9%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
0.691	10.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
0.652	70.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.564	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.556	93.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.555	70.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.552	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.520	1.4%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.404	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
0.404	6.8%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.391	72.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.384	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.366	66.7%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.345	68.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.316	68.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.304	8.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.300	79.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.296	80.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.280	24.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.261	87.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.259	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.227	90.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.178	8.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.137	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.131	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.124	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
0.122	7.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.118	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
0.114	20.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.108	8.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.079	7.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.078	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
0.076	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.034	7.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.017	0.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
-0.006	99.2%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
-0.020	14.3%	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
-0.022	25.5%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
-0.031	23.3%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
-0.041	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-0.042	8.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
-0.160	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
-0.393	49.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
-0.722	6.2%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.914	57.8%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-1.310	6.2%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
-1.853	98.2%	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-2.037	20.7%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
-3.439	99.5%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-8.243	92.5%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.059	47.1%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-108.989	99.2%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary