RuslanBes

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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36.8		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
113.819	99.8%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
106.496	93.2%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
103.082	91.1%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
92.303	91.0%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
82.531	75.0%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
78.973	90.7%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
77.058	96.3%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
76.524	91.1%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
75.401	96.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
72.083	98.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
71.184	68.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
71.087	96.2%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
69.310	95.4%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
67.278	98.1%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
66.792	83.8%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
66.755	84.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
66.007	98.4%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
64.357	91.2%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
62.607	99.8%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
61.362	86.3%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
58.283	94.8%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
57.001	85.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
56.253	90.7%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
55.280	74.9%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.018	91.2%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
53.233	84.7%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
52.726	62.9%	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
52.386	90.1%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.385	96.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
51.428	43.7%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
50.397	79.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
49.110	84.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.001	78.8%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
47.711	96.5%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
46.765	99.4%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
45.671	62.8%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
43.734	81.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
42.278	91.9%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
42.256	99.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
41.322	55.8%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
39.711	79.6%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
39.677	55.2%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
39.124	63.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
38.808	85.5%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
37.265	57.1%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
36.555	67.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
35.017	67.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
33.462	99.3%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
33.298	84.9%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
32.899	62.3%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.515	86.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
31.201	98.3%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
31.018	85.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
30.975	97.7%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
30.589	90.2%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
29.693	84.1%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
29.619	92.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
28.876	90.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
28.837	94.4%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
28.385	94.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
27.887	67.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
27.662	85.3%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
27.455	99.9%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
27.016	89.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
26.884	87.0%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
26.724	99.6%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
25.763	44.8%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
25.701	64.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
24.819	37.2%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
24.361	70.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
24.319	59.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
23.996	77.7%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
23.544	99.6%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
23.001	99.8%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
22.715	86.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
22.618	80.0%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
22.151	94.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
21.920	48.2%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
21.684	77.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
21.531	73.2%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.426	93.4%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
20.295	98.0%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
19.197	67.3%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
18.920	99.2%	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
18.356	87.4%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
17.415	93.6%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
16.957	91.8%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.764	70.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
16.755	96.0%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
15.759	84.1%	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
15.687	97.7%	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
14.684	62.2%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
13.927	22.6%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
13.091	73.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
12.831	36.9%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
12.423	70.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
11.556	96.1%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
11.347	70.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
11.084	57.5%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
11.055	23.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
10.891	94.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
10.845	16.7%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
9.092	57.5%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
8.673	14.9%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.881	90.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
7.412	87.0%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
7.318	37.5%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
6.945	90.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
6.785	9.7%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
6.396	18.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
5.780	89.3%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
4.090	82.6%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
4.030	6.3%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
3.279	23.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
3.212	72.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
3.198	6.3%	Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?	Binary
3.006	99.1%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
2.683	99.6%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
2.598	86.2%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
2.281	86.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
2.079	15.2%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
0.660	86.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
0.659	9.6%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
0.198	20.6%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-0.017	7.8%	What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?	Continuous
-2.132	94.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-4.338	27.5%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
-5.719	99.9%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-8.457	84.7%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-9.718	8.3%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-16.529	85.5%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-26.031	73.3%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-32.106	81.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
-37.652	26.3%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-47.599	94.1%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-52.683	32.2%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-218.855	92.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary