AvrahamEisenberg

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.767	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
109.756	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
79.893	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
68.716	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
49.840	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
49.829	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
41.424	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
37.032	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
34.823	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
32.350	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
31.485	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
31.112	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
31.024	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
28.980	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
26.339	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
24.532	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
23.151	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
22.382	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
21.539	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
20.667	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
19.897	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
19.294	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
17.803	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
16.812	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
16.576	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
16.549	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
16.025	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
14.960	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
14.125	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
12.866	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
12.805	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
12.754	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
12.387	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
10.647	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
10.579	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
8.940	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
8.643	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
8.436	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
8.364	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
7.954	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
7.503	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
7.065	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
7.049	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
6.919	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
6.906	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
6.615	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
6.428	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
6.363	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
6.356	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
5.554	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
5.031	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
4.217	What will be the final asking price of Roblox stock at the end of its first trading day?	Continuous
3.617	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.378	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
3.332	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
3.273	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
2.352	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
2.332	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
2.153	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
1.734	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
1.681	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
1.666	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
1.602	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
1.504	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
0.978	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
0.772	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
0.574	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
0.216	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
0.003	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-1.486	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-1.818	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-3.785	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-3.804	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-4.211	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-5.110	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-5.124	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-5.735	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-6.320	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-7.291	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
-11.201	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-11.497	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
-15.626	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
-16.826	What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?	Continuous
-23.596	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-29.196	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-31.866	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-47.195	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-58.853	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
-61.108	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-62.960	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-66.928	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
-92.010	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-126.356	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous