lubossaloky

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.74		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
78.714	99.5%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
72.260	99.8%	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
50.945	99.8%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
49.920	40.0%	What will be the prime-age (25-54) labor force participation rate in the United States in these years? (2025)	Continuous
49.763	99.9%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
47.518	99.6%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
45.924	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
43.091	83.9%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024)	Continuous
42.337	99.9%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
39.933	99.9%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
37.987	99.8%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
35.664	99.8%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
34.896	31.2%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
34.432	99.8%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
34.077	100.0%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
32.543	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
31.891	39.6%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
31.891	99.7%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
30.881	54.0%	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
30.686	99.9%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
29.827	99.8%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
29.427	99.5%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
28.816	99.3%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
28.448	99.9%	What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
27.700	99.9%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
27.270	96.4%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
27.157	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
26.514	99.9%	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
26.488	98.3%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
26.300	99.5%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
23.723	100.0%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
22.887	99.8%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
22.784	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
22.389	99.9%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
22.363	62.6%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
22.264	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
21.927	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
21.031	61.5%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
20.706	99.1%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
20.536	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
20.494	99.8%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
20.190	59.9%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
20.098	87.3%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
19.958	79.4%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
19.799	99.9%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
19.772	67.8%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
19.574	99.9%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
18.918	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
18.000	76.9%	BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
17.870	99.9%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
17.851	99.9%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
17.783	99.9%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
17.197	48.1%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
16.897	99.8%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
15.663	99.9%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
15.525	99.8%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
15.365	77.0%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024)	Continuous
14.840	44.1%	Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?	Binary
14.735	99.8%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
14.629	99.8%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
14.304	99.9%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.205	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
13.433	75.4%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
13.050	70.7%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
12.922	99.8%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
12.795	20.2%	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
12.602	99.8%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
12.560	99.9%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
12.499	81.1%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024)	Continuous
12.262	70.9%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
11.861	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
11.383	99.3%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
11.064	45.6%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
10.600	23.7%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
10.214	96.5%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
10.180	99.9%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.130	98.4%	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
9.899	100.0%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
9.819	99.8%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
8.932	99.9%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
8.546	69.3%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
8.497	99.9%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
8.380	96.1%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
8.283	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
7.207	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
6.980	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
6.936	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
6.918	99.9%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
6.671	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
6.525	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
6.456	70.8%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024)	Continuous
6.334	51.7%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
6.126	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
6.054	99.8%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.919	64.9%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
5.874	99.9%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.793	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
5.550	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
5.476	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
5.361	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
5.133	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
4.648	45.4%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024)	Continuous
4.642	79.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.437	100.0%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
4.339	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
4.327	65.6%	Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?	Binary
4.061	97.7%	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
4.008	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
3.985	40.0%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
3.953	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
3.952	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
3.813	99.6%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.675	99.8%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
3.638	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
3.366	99.8%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.210	99.1%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
3.017	66.1%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
2.982	99.7%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
2.860	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
2.194	99.9%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
2.143	5.9%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
2.106	21.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
2.081	21.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
1.803	84.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
1.473	6.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
1.410	21.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.399	6.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
1.382	100.0%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.315	59.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
1.274	60.7%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
1.227	99.9%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
1.223	69.2%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
1.181	17.1%	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
1.123	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.979	65.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
0.849	25.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
0.777	84.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.761	25.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.694	1.5%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.579	1.7%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
0.545	4.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party)	Continuous
0.511	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.392	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.239	6.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
0.237	6.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
0.193	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.089	6.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
0.076	6.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
0.071	6.8%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
0.006	100.0%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
-0.084	4.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
-0.285	31.1%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024)	Continuous
-0.766	99.9%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-0.806	4.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party)	Continuous
-1.012	17.1%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-1.168	23.4%	What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024?	Continuous
-3.463	22.1%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
-3.495	24.1%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
-4.696	76.5%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-4.916	99.8%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
-14.900	99.9%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
-20.095	64.9%	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
-27.880	99.8%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-33.682	99.8%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.347	32.7%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-80.095	99.8%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary