144.459 | How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023? | Continuous |

127.122 | How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023? | Continuous |

97.989 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |

97.508 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3) | Continuous |

97.296 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition) | Binary |

97.296 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left) | Binary |

97.295 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050) | Binary |

97.295 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation) | Binary |

97.295 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left) | Binary |

97.295 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15) | Binary |

97.295 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement) | Binary |

97.250 | Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023? | Binary |

97.165 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |

97.069 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |

97.025 | Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024? | Binary |

96.785 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |

96.657 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso) | Binary |

95.505 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22) | Continuous |

93.973 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |

93.467 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6) | Continuous |

93.299 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

93.249 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens) | Binary |

93.138 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP) | Binary |

92.824 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20) | Continuous |

92.750 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

92.720 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |

92.400 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |

91.739 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU) | Binary |

90.332 | What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11) | Continuous |

89.887 | What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17) | Continuous |

88.893 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5) | Binary |

88.347 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg) | Binary |

88.090 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens) | Binary |

87.753 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens) | Binary |

87.576 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0) | Binary |

86.955 | Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

86.708 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman) | Binary |

86.234 | Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023? | Binary |

86.018 | Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024? | Binary |

85.187 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai) | Binary |

85.030 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | Binary |

84.443 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis) | Binary |

84.050 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed) | Binary |

83.573 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli) | Binary |

83.573 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül) | Binary |

83.573 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller) | Binary |

83.573 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek) | Binary |

83.573 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu) | Binary |

83.572 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül) | Binary |

83.572 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan) | Binary |

83.572 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan) | Binary |

83.572 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu) | Binary |

83.572 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal) | Binary |

83.572 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan) | Binary |

83.084 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers) | Binary |

82.891 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce) | Binary |

82.330 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu) | Binary |

82.330 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan) | Binary |

82.330 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan) | Binary |

82.167 | Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season? | Binary |

81.978 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener) | Binary |

81.833 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0) | Binary |

81.693 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu) | Binary |

81.639 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş) | Binary |

81.629 | Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party? | Binary |

80.832 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |

80.705 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP) | Binary |

78.375 | What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25) | Continuous |

78.121 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

75.432 | At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei) | Binary |

73.904 | Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023? | Binary |

71.894 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan) | Binary |

71.776 | Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023? | Binary |

71.551 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1) | Binary |

71.525 | Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List? | Binary |

71.175 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

70.057 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | Binary |

68.259 | Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023? | Binary |

65.028 | What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11) | Continuous |

65.028 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar) | Binary |

64.867 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS)) | Binary |

62.334 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1) | Binary |

62.277 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |

61.418 | In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012? | Binary |

58.692 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars) | Binary |

58.520 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |

58.516 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |

58.494 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |

58.444 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |

57.717 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |

57.698 | When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19? | Continuous |

57.595 | Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023? | Binary |

57.260 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |

56.687 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |

56.205 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |

55.681 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |

55.141 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |

55.084 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |

54.211 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |

53.769 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi) | Binary |

53.388 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |

53.352 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | Binary |

53.193 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |

52.526 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5) | Binary |

52.478 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |

52.165 | Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards? | Binary |

52.151 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |

51.633 | Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024? | Binary |

51.222 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |

50.895 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |

50.884 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes) | Binary |

50.862 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |

50.428 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |

47.898 | What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25) | Continuous |

47.762 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform) | Binary |

47.635 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |

47.434 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |

47.154 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |

46.597 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |

45.626 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |

45.559 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |

45.163 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |

43.908 | Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022? | Binary |

43.417 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |

43.125 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams) | Binary |

43.067 | [Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023? | Binary |

42.338 | Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year? | Binary |

42.048 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |

41.975 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |

41.469 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks) | Binary |

41.465 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |

41.158 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos) | Binary |

40.560 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |

40.301 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |

40.272 | What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11) | Continuous |

39.985 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |

39.985 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |

39.768 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |

39.670 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |

39.348 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |

39.234 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |

39.066 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |

38.936 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox) | Binary |

38.807 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils) | Binary |

38.764 | When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%? | Continuous |

38.756 | Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022? | Binary |

38.723 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |

38.020 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |

37.508 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |

37.172 | Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023? | Binary |

36.496 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |

36.123 | Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024? | Binary |

36.070 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Binary |

35.891 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |

35.602 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers) | Binary |

35.442 | What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023? | Continuous |

35.189 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |

34.869 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs) | Binary |

34.063 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |

33.777 | Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th? | Binary |

33.333 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | Binary |

32.616 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |

32.285 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |

32.234 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |

32.081 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |

32.052 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8) | Continuous |

31.927 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |

31.687 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |

31.552 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22) | Continuous |

31.491 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |

30.316 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11) | Continuous |

29.714 | Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? | Binary |

29.554 | Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023? | Binary |

28.285 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |

27.167 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |

27.071 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |

27.063 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |

25.928 | Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024? | Binary |

25.546 | Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023? | Binary |

25.515 | What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25) | Continuous |

24.819 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes) | Binary |

24.795 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |

24.604 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings) | Binary |

24.570 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20) | Continuous |

23.891 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers) | Binary |

22.991 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings) | Binary |

22.850 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning) | Binary |

22.591 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |

22.454 | How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023? | Continuous |

22.165 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25) | Continuous |

21.632 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild) | Binary |

20.857 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |

20.535 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |

20.077 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche) | Binary |

19.567 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |

19.156 | When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states? | Continuous |

18.974 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |

18.316 | Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote? | Binary |

17.050 | Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |

15.444 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2) | Binary |

15.266 | Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections? | Binary |

15.171 | Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins) | Binary |

14.827 | When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace? | Continuous |

14.809 | Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time? | Binary |

14.528 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6) | Continuous |

14.348 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf) | Binary |

14.132 | Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024? | Binary |

13.994 | Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |

12.858 | Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |

12.539 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |

11.583 | Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024? | Binary |

11.453 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |

10.465 | Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th? | Binary |

9.998 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |

9.261 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu) | Binary |

8.874 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight? | Binary |

6.984 | 2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion? | Binary |

6.628 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | Binary |

5.824 | How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2) | Binary |

4.107 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP)) | Binary |

4.106 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |

1.687 | Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012? | Binary |

1.382 | Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023? | Binary |

1.202 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE) | Binary |

0.294 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |

- | Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks? | Binary |

-0.365 | Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023? | Binary |

-0.468 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25) | Continuous |

-0.960 | When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire? | Continuous |

-1.724 | Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional? | Binary |

-1.724 | Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023? | Binary |

-2.333 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |

-3.266 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

-4.112 | Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%? | Binary |

-4.135 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | Binary |

-4.138 | Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024? | Binary |

-5.701 | Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023? | Binary |

-9.056 | Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023? | Binary |

-10.687 | What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8) | Continuous |

-10.794 | What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11) | Continuous |

-12.035 | What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25) | Continuous |

-12.310 | When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults? | Continuous |

-14.917 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |

-15.410 | When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory? | Continuous |

-17.717 | Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023? | Binary |

-18.023 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |

-18.698 | Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024? | Binary |

-19.241 | Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship? | Binary |

-20.505 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

-29.434 | Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist? | Binary |

-31.138 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | Binary |

-31.164 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Binary |

-31.183 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |

-38.492 | Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow? | Binary |

-41.731 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left) | Binary |

-47.158 | How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3) | Binary |

-71.027 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |

-85.770 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |

-94.335 | Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023? | Binary |

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