| 105.206 | How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023? | Continuous |
| 72.882 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
| 69.352 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 52.227 | How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024? | Continuous |
| 51.397 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
| 50.551 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
| 47.515 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 42.440 | Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft? | Continuous |
| 40.722 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.591 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
| 30.791 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
| 30.584 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
| 29.786 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
| 28.233 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
| 26.688 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 26.047 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
| 25.971 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 25.296 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 22.852 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.460 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
| 21.421 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
| 20.703 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 20.550 | What will Meta’s yearly spending on Reality Labs be? (2023) | Continuous |
| 20.455 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023) | Continuous |
| 20.022 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 19.940 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
| 19.550 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 19.324 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 19.160 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
| 19.086 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
| 19.008 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
| 18.349 | When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions? | Continuous |
| 17.869 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 17.752 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
| 17.673 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 16.978 | How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024? | Continuous |
| 16.379 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.986 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 15.726 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 15.635 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.328 | How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
| 14.730 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
| 14.563 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
| 14.501 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
| 14.239 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
| 14.214 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.200 | What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 13.808 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-23) | Continuous |
| 13.645 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
| 13.591 | What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023? | Continuous |
| 13.575 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.993 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 12.527 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
| 12.496 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Continuous |
| 12.383 | What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
| 12.273 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.233 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
| 12.179 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Aug-23) | Continuous |
| 12.176 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
| 12.000 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.346 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 11.194 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
| 10.915 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Continuous |
| 10.859 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.802 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
| 10.727 | Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.653 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
| 10.522 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
| 10.465 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.095 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
| 9.977 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
| 9.903 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
| 9.685 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
| 9.554 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 9.519 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 9.071 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 9.068 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.997 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 8.677 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
| 8.397 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 8.395 | How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022? | Continuous |
| 8.343 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 8.318 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Jul-23) | Continuous |
| 8.178 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.038 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
| 7.674 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.536 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
| 7.105 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
| 6.677 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
| 6.631 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
| 6.217 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.213 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
| 6.175 | How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 5.803 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
| 5.774 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.598 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
| 5.452 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 5.351 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
| 5.222 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.141 | How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)? | Continuous |
| 4.999 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
| 4.731 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
| 4.514 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.296 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.175 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.022 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
| 4.016 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
| 3.917 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.707 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 3.494 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
| 3.340 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| 3.259 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
| 3.186 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 3.134 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.091 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 2.869 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
| 2.713 | Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.687 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| 2.673 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
| 2.662 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.645 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
| 2.386 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.172 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
| 2.137 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
| 2.073 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
| 2.053 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 2.047 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.042 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
| 2.033 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.996 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
| 1.954 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
| 1.876 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 1.776 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
| 1.699 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.632 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 1.322 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 1.204 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.191 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
| 1.098 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.083 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 1.067 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
| 0.974 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 0.894 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.884 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 0.857 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 0.843 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 0.757 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 0.753 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 0.741 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
| 0.739 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 0.728 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.706 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
| 0.686 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 0.665 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 0.657 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.638 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
| 0.549 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 0.531 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 0.497 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 0.468 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 0.462 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
| 0.357 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
| 0.331 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
| 0.326 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
| 0.312 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 0.305 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.268 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
| 0.256 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
| 0.119 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.099 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
| 0.087 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
| 0.086 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
| 0.047 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
| 0.035 | Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023? | Binary |
| 0.026 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
| 0.026 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
| 0.025 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
| 0.025 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
| 0.014 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
| 0.009 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
| -0.110 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| -0.343 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
| -0.473 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
| -0.515 | What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be? | Continuous |
| -0.537 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
| -0.674 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -0.677 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
| -0.780 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
| -0.833 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
| -0.908 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.067 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
| -1.119 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.323 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| -1.840 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
| -2.103 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
| -2.392 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -2.637 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| -2.993 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
| -3.251 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
| -3.706 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
| -4.456 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
| -4.789 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -4.949 | When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day? | Continuous |
| -5.036 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
| -5.110 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
| -5.615 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
| -6.024 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
| -6.420 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
| -6.778 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
| -7.349 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
| -8.374 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
| -11.261 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
| -11.877 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
| -12.489 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
| -12.658 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
| -13.054 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
| -19.171 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
| -26.502 | What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| -29.495 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
| -30.381 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
| -31.414 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
| -32.442 | How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024? | Continuous |
| -38.752 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
| -46.645 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
| -56.069 | What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -64.688 | How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024? | Continuous |
| -87.760 | What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
| -108.717 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |