Vang

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.67k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
144.459	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
127.122	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
97.989	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
97.508	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
97.296	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
97.296	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
97.295	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
97.295	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
97.295	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
97.295	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
97.295	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
97.250	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
97.165	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.069	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
97.025	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.785	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
96.657	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
95.505	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
93.973	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.467	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
93.299	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.249	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
93.138	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
92.824	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
92.750	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
92.720	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
92.400	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
91.739	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
90.332	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
89.887	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
88.893	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
88.347	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
88.090	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
87.753	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
87.576	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
86.955	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
86.708	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
86.234	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
86.018	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
85.187	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
85.030	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
84.443	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
84.050	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
83.573	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
83.573	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
83.573	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
83.573	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
83.573	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
83.572	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
83.572	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
83.572	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
83.572	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
83.572	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
83.572	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
83.084	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
82.891	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
82.330	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
82.330	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
82.330	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
82.167	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
81.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
81.833	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
81.693	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
81.639	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
81.629	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
80.832	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.705	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
78.375	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
78.121	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
75.432	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
73.904	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
71.894	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
71.776	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
71.551	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
71.525	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
71.175	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
70.057	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
68.259	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
65.028	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
65.028	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
64.867	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
62.334	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
62.277	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
61.418	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
58.692	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
58.520	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
58.516	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
58.494	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
58.444	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
57.717	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
57.698	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
57.595	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
57.260	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
56.687	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
56.205	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
55.681	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
55.141	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
55.084	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
54.211	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
53.769	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
53.388	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
53.352	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
53.193	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
52.526	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
52.478	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
52.165	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
52.151	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
51.633	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
51.222	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
50.895	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
50.884	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
50.862	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
50.428	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
47.898	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
47.762	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
47.635	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
47.434	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
47.154	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
46.597	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
45.626	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
45.559	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
45.163	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
43.908	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
43.417	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
43.125	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
43.067	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
42.338	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
42.048	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
41.975	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
41.469	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
41.465	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
41.158	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
40.560	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
40.301	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
40.272	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
39.985	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
39.985	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
39.768	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
39.670	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
39.348	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
39.234	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
39.066	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
38.936	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
38.807	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
38.764	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
38.756	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
38.723	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
38.020	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
37.508	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
37.172	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
36.496	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
36.123	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
36.070	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
35.891	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
35.602	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
35.442	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
35.189	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
34.869	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
34.063	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
33.777	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
33.333	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
32.616	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
32.285	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
32.234	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
32.081	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
32.052	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
31.927	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
31.687	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
31.552	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
31.491	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
30.316	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
29.714	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
29.554	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
28.285	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
27.167	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
27.071	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
27.063	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
25.928	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
25.546	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
25.515	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
24.819	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
24.795	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
24.604	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
24.570	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
23.891	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
22.991	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
22.850	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
22.591	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.454	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
22.165	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
21.632	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
20.857	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
20.535	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
20.077	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
19.567	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
19.156	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
18.974	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
18.316	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
17.050	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
15.444	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
15.266	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
15.171	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
14.827	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
14.809	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
14.528	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
14.348	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
14.132	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
13.994	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
12.858	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
12.539	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
11.583	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
11.453	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
10.465	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
9.998	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
9.261	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
8.874	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
6.984	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
6.628	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.824	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
4.107	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
4.106	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.687	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
1.382	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
1.202	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
0.294	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
-0.365	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
-0.468	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
-0.960	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-1.724	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-1.724	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
-2.333	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
-3.266	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.112	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-4.135	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.138	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-5.701	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
-9.056	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-10.687	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
-10.794	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
-12.035	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-12.310	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
-14.917	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-15.410	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-17.717	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-18.023	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
-18.698	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
-19.241	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-20.505	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-29.434	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-31.138	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
-31.164	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
-31.183	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-38.492	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-41.731	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-47.158	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-71.027	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-85.770	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-94.335	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-142.903	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-215.949	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
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